In early May, the European branch of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations published an analysis on Saudi Arabia’s changing policy. It stated that:
In the aftermath of Saudi Arabia’s geopolitical shifts caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the West’s withdrawal from the Middle East and North Africa, the kingdom has utilized its energy resources, financial capital, and political leverage to emerge as a mid-level power with significant influence in a multipolar world.
Riyadh’s foreign policy follows an “opportunistic action” approach, characterized by dynamism and aimed at securing its immediate national interests. Saudi Arabia seeks to become the focal point of the region in order to secure a seat at the global negotiation table, representing a stable and economically interconnected Middle East. On the global stage, it builds trade relations with various countries based on its own interests and vulnerabilities.
Saudi Arabia is increasingly becoming an important economic and diplomatic partner for Europe and plays a crucial role in global discussions on climate change, communications, and energy. To strengthen their position with the kingdom, European countries should actively engage Riyadh in global negotiations—such as on risk reduction—and aim to become preferred partners in areas of mutual interest like energy, climate, economy, foreign policy, communications, and technology.
Overall, this assessment is correct. Only the liberal lobby within the European Union views Saudi Arabia through its own narrow interests and opportunistically adapts to the changing landscape. Other countries, meanwhile, view Saudi Arabia based on their own values and interests. The United States, for example, takes a more critical stance. Newsweek labeled Saudi Arabia as a “swing state,” suggesting it has yet to fully define its foreign policy. This may be due to the current path the kingdom is following. But is it truly volatile, or is it simply balancing itself amid today’s global turmoil?
An average observer might assume that Saudi Arabia, due to its rapprochement with Iran and China, will now adopt a hostile stance towards the United States. However, Saudi leadership seeks to maintain serious influence in its relations with all major players, including Russia, China, and the U.S.
This is confirmed by the fact that in 2023, Saudi Arabia spent $87,112,626 on lobbying for its interests in the United States, the highest figure in eight years. Sixteen lobbying entities were registered at the same time. Previously, the kingdom had spent between $10 and $30 million annually for these purposes. It is unlikely that Saudi Arabia would make such investments if it were adopting a hostile position, even though this sum is relatively small compared to the kingdom’s budget.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia faces certain dilemmas in its regional relationships, particularly those linked to its alignment with Western countries and their affiliates in the region. Foremost among these is its relationship with Israel, which has found itself isolated in nearly all Arab and Islamic countries due to its policy of genocide against the Palestinians, resulting in a freeze in the normalization of bilateral relations. However, the balance has shifted with the improvement of relations with Iran, made possible through Iraqi and Chinese mediation.
Nevertheless, these maneuvers highlight that regional policy remains a priority for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. This is further evidenced by Saudi Arabia’s recent announcement of appointing a new ambassador to Syria, the first since the kingdom severed ties with Damascus following the outbreak of the civil war. This move was positively received in Russia.
Another noteworthy development is the visit of Saudi Ambassador to Baghdad, Abdulaziz Al-Shammari, to the shrine of Imam Hussein in Karbala, Iraq’s principal Shia shrine. He was accompanied by Karbala’s governor, Nassif Jassim Al-Khattabi, as well as other officials and religious figures who discussed “economic and political integration across all sectors.” Previously, no Saudi diplomat or official had visited Shia shrines. Arab sources attribute this initiative directly to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is steadily pursuing a policy of improving relations with neighboring countries.
At the end of April, direct flights were launched between Dammam in eastern Saudi Arabia and Najaf in southern Iraq, which is home to another important Shia shrine, the tomb of Imam Ali bin Abi Talib, the cousin and son-in-law of the Prophet Muhammad.
It’s also worth mentioning that Saudi Arabia has its Vision 2030 program, which includes regional diplomatic initiatives. This vision presents an ambitious diversification aimed at encouraging investment through economic and cultural exchanges.
On the other hand, Iraq holds significance for Saudi Arabia. First, the two countries share a relatively long border, and given the negative experience with the rise of ISIS, Riyadh seeks to have a neighbor with an adequate level of security. Secondly, the logistics corridor passing through Iraq and Turkey, known as the Dry Canal or Development Road, is vital for Iraq. The country’s authorities “invite everyone to contribute to the success of this project, which represents a link between East and West.”
Back in 2023, Saudi Arabia expressed its readiness to invest in all Iraqi provinces, and a few years earlier, it granted Iraq a loan of $1.5 billion. Securing a stake in the Dry Canal project and reaping the corresponding future profits presents a good opportunity for the kingdom, which it is unlikely to pass up. Enhanced mutual trust will also contribute to this.
Russia welcomes these initiatives that could improve the situation in the Middle East, particularly in conflict-ridden areas like Iraq, Yemen, Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria. As for bilateral relations, they are developing in the direction of trust. Moscow appreciates Saudi Arabia’s position in OPEC, especially in light of Washington’s previous attempts to change oil pricing policies. In August 2003, a test train shipment was sent along the southern corridor from Russia, with its final destination being Jeddah in Saudi Arabia.
Despite the progress in Saudi-Russian relations, it is also important to recognize that they still mostly touch on high-level politics and major economic projects. To change perceptions at the grassroots level, Saudi Arabia needs different types of initiatives within Russia to showcase its image and capabilities in a way that reflects its status and the advancements led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. In the past, the kingdom funded Arabic language courses focusing on the Quran, but it may now find other ways to present its culture, traditions, and innovations, which will likely resonate well with Russian citizens.
