How do the understandings between Washington and Moscow affect Russian influence in Africa?

A new phase of rapprochement has begun between the United States and Russia, marked by a phone call that lasted over an hour and a half between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 18, 2025. This coincided with an increasing interest from Moscow in expanding its influence across the African continent, particularly in Libya, Sudan, and the Sahel region, especially after the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024. Moscow is working to establish a leadership and military base in Libya for what is referred to as the “African Legion,” in preparation for deploying forces from this legion in several African nations, particularly in the Sahel region.

Stimulating Contexts

Significant transformations in the Sahel and Middle East regions have prompted Moscow to enhance its presence in Africa, highlighted by the following:

Improvement of Moscow-Washington Relations: Following Trump’s arrival in the White House, he began sending various messages expressing his interest in resolving the crisis that the Russian-Ukrainian war imposed by engaging in communication with Putin. This was evident in discussions between U.S. and Russian officials in Riyadh in February 2025, which may lead to a direct meeting between the two presidents. In their phone call on March 18, they discussed ways to resolve the crisis caused by the war, agreeing to exchange 175 prisoners from Russia and Ukraine, establish expert committees for settlement, and Putin’s agreement to halt attacks on Ukrainian energy for 30 days.

Decline of Western Influence in Africa: Many African nations, like Chad, Niger, and Burkina Faso, have increasingly demanded that Western countries, such as France and the U.S., withdraw their troops. This pressure has led these countries to take actual steps in this regard, enabling Moscow to deploy Wagner forces and enhance its influence by filling the strategic void resulting from the withdrawal of these troops. With Trump’s presidency starting in January 2025, U.S. interest in Africa appeared to decline further compared to other regions like the Middle East. The Trump administration announced the dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development, which previously played a key role in bolstering American influence in various African nations.

Undermining Russian Influence in the Middle East: The fall of the Syrian regime had negative repercussions for Russian influence in the Middle East, especially as this coincided with a decline in Iranian power due to Israeli military strikes against Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthi militia, and Hamas. Moscow has long depended on the Syrian and Iranian regimes to strengthen its influence in the Middle East, but ongoing developments in the region pose a significant challenge to the stability of Russian influence in Syria.

Russia’s Interest in Strengthening Its Role in Africa: Developments in the Middle East have prompted Moscow to act to expand its influence in Africa to offset its strategic losses in Syria. Numerous reports have indicated that Russia has been transferring part of its military equipment to military bases in Libya, while the Sudanese government has explicitly expressed its approval for the establishment of a Russian base in Port Sudan on the Red Sea. This could help Moscow enhance its influence in the Sahel region alongside Libya and Sudan.

Multiple Challenges

While the Russian-American understandings may provide a suitable context for Moscow to strengthen its presence and expand its influence in Africa, several challenges could undermine its efforts:

Russia’s Ability to Balance American Influence: African countries have continuously relied on Russian support to face Western pressures and see Russia as a counterbalance to Western nations on the African stage, particularly as tensions rise between the U.S. and countries like South Africa. This situation compels Moscow to interact cautiously with African nations amid the fluid dynamics of international and regional developments, which could directly impact its relations with international powers, especially Russia and the U.S.

Impact of Counter-Chinese Moves in the Continent: One of the main reasons driving the U.S. to strengthen ties with Russia is to disrupt the Chinese-Russian alliance. Consequently, China may view this growing rapprochement with concern, perceiving it as a Russian move that could undermine its interests, possibly prompting China to take actions that may not align with Russia’s calculations. Although it is unlikely that Moscow will abandon its Chinese ally, it is expected that this closeness to Washington might raise concerns in Moscow over the future of its relations with its powerful ally on the international stage, particularly in Africa.

Escalating European Pressures on Moscow: Moscow is also attempting to dismantle the American-European alliance, particularly amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and several European countries that have begun to realize there is an American desire for individual control over the Ukrainian file, sidelining and ignoring the European role. Nevertheless, European nations may exert pressure on the U.S. to place limits on its rapprochement with Russia so as not to lead to negative repercussions for their security and interests, which could drive Washington to attempt to constrain Russian influence in Africa.

Threat from the U.S. President to Limit BRICS Influence: Washington has threatened to impose sanctions and tariffs on BRICS member countries if they proceed with plans for a unified currency or adopt an alternative currency to the dollar. Since Russia and African nations like South Africa, Egypt, and Ethiopia are members of BRICS, these American positions may pose a challenge to reaching political understandings between Washington and Moscow without consulting African countries on the economic policies of the BRICS bloc.

Possible Scenarios

Accordingly, it can be said that there are three potential scenarios concerning Russian influence in Africa:

1. Expansion of Russian Influence: This scenario suggests that the Trump administration will work to enhance its relationship with Moscow by reaching agreements that allow the two countries to divide areas of influence or negotiate a deal that secures American recognition of increased Russian influence in Libya, the Sahel, and Sudan as compensation for its declining influence in Syria and taking a neutral stance on the U.S.-Iran escalation. However, it seems unlikely that Moscow would accept a deal that strengthens its alignment with Washington at the expense of its relations with China and Iran.
2. Decline of Russian Influence: This scenario presumes that the Russian-American rapprochement will negatively impact Russian influence, particularly as it may lead to a decrease in African nations’ trust in their Russian ally. This could drive them to strengthen their ties with China instead. Nevertheless, this scenario will depend on China’s responsiveness to African demands and its ability to expand its military and security role in the region, which still seems unlikely given its continuing focus on naval military presence in specific areas.
3. Limited Russian Expansion: In this scenario, Moscow will continue to work to enhance its influence in Africa in a limited and focused manner, particularly in Libya, Sudan, and the Sahel region. However, this will be linked to Russian-American understandings specific to each area or file, ensuring mutual recognition of each other’s interests. Such agreements could potentially facilitate political resolutions in countries like Libya and Sudan, especially if both nations succeed in coordinating their actions with their allies, particularly China in Russia’s case and European countries in the U.S.’s case.

In conclusion, the current Russian-American rapprochement will have numerous implications not only for the potential trajectories of the Russian-Ukrainian war but also for the positions of both Washington and Moscow regarding various regional and international issues, particularly concerning developments in the Sahel region and the potential military escalation between Iran and both the U.S. and Israel.