Historically, major conflicts have led to the destruction of thriving civilizations, but numerous factors contributed to the downfall of these societies, as internal crises interacted with external threats to bring about their demise. This raises many questions about how and why societies from ancient Greece to the modern era chose to annihilate their enemies. Could similar genocidal wars occur in our current age? What mistakes did collapsed civilizations make? How did they fail to perceive the intentions of their adversaries? These inquiries arise from the historical analysis of civilization collapses, aiming to draw lessons for contemporary societies to avoid a similar fate.
In this context, military historian Victor Davis Hanson, in his 2024 book “The End of Everything: How Wars Descend into Annihilation,” explores the issue of wars leading to total annihilation. He examines how major conflicts resulted in the destruction of entire civilizations through a series of sieges and plundering from ancient times to the conquest of the New World. He outlines the fundamental principles of warfare, focusing on the mistakes made by collapsed civilizations and their failures to interpret the intentions of their enemies. He warns against the dangers of ignoring historical lessons, urging contemporary leaders and societies to remain vigilant to prevent repeating past errors.
The Fall of Civilizations and Wars:
The book discusses several famous historical examples of the fall of prosperous civilizations, such as the overthrow of Thebes by Alexander the Great, the destruction of Carthage by the Romans, the fall of Constantinople by the Ottomans, and the genocide of the Aztecs in Tenochtitlan by the Spaniards. Hanson highlights these events as symbols of societies descending into barbarism when war becomes their last option, indicating that wars often extend beyond mere military victories to the total destruction of entire civilizations.
Hanson argues that civilizations do not collapse suddenly; rather, they erode slowly due to various factors. The fragility of a civilization manifests when social and political systems become prone to failure, speeding up the impact of these factors, and this fragility, while present, often remains invisible until crises emerge. Despite the technological advancements and complex social structures of civilizations, they always remain susceptible to collapse due to internal and external factors. When governmental corruption, economic instability, and social disintegration spread internally, external forces exploit this internal weakness, accelerating the collapse through invasions or military pressures.
Hanson presents historical models of civilizations that fell due to such fragility, including the Roman Empire, where corruption and political weakness contributed to its decline, and the Maya civilization, which collapsed under environmental and social pressures. He urges leaders and societies to recognize the fragility inherent in civilizations and emphasizes the importance of strengthening institutions and social cohesion as a means to prevent collapse. This serves as a starting point for understanding how to avoid the mistakes leading to historical collapses, making historical lessons invaluable in a contemporary context.
Factors of Fragility:
Hanson outlines the reasons that historically led to the collapse of civilizations, many of which persist today, identifying them as follows:
- Social Disintegration: Social divisions, whether based on ethnicity or class, weaken the social fabric, undermining the community’s ability to respond to crises.
- Economic Factors: He identifies the income gap between the rich and poor, neglect in resource management and financial policies, and dependence on particular industries as destabilizing issues, stressing the importance of economic diversity as more resilient in the face of crises.
He cites historical economic crises, including the collapse during the Great Depression and the end of the Soviet Union, noting the importance of staying alert to early economic warning signs, such as rising unemployment or slowing growth, which may indicate larger, long-term issues.
- Environmental Degradation: The author connects environmental degradation—like deforestation, soil erosion, and resource depletion—with historical agricultural declines and social unrest that have led to civilization collapses. Historically, deforestation has resulted in lost biodiversity and soil degradation, which significantly lowered agricultural yields. The depletion of natural resources, such as water and minerals, has also instigated social tensions and survival conflicts. Hanson reviews historical examples of civilization collapses due to agricultural crises stemming from environmental degradation, including the Maya civilization.
- Military Overreach: He defines it as “the indulgence in continuous wars and increasing military spending that exceeds the state’s capacity.” He focuses on the effects of prolonged military campaigns and unsustainable defense expenditures in the collapses of historical empires. Continuous wars fought by the Roman Empire against Germanic tribes weakened resources and created internal instability. The two World Wars also drained the British Empire, leading to a loss of control over its colonies.
Hanson discusses the repercussions of high military expenditures, explaining that allocating substantial resources to the military can undermine investment in other vital sectors. He warns that modern great powers might face similar consequences if they fail to balance military ambitions with internal stability and economic welfare.
- Corruption Spread: The author notes that corruption undermines public trust and weakens institutions, potentially leading to chaos and revolutions within societies, supporting this with examples from ancient Greece and modern democracies.
- Cultural Deterioration: He argues that when societies lose their common values, customs, and sense of identity, they become more susceptible to disintegration and collapse. He warns of the dangers of moral relativism, which results in a lack of clear ethical standards, leading to chaos and confusion. He stresses the importance of preserving cultural and historical heritage and social harmony, as this contributes to building a strong and stable identity.
- Technological Advancement: The author analyzes how technological developments throughout history have caused economic and social disruptions, such as the impact of the Industrial Revolution on labor markets. He views technology as a double-edged sword; while it has improved the quality of life, it has also led to economic and social divides, as seen during the Industrial Revolution’s effects on the workforce. Hanson advocates for regulatory policies to ensure that technological benefits are equitably distributed across society, also pointing out future challenges emerging from technological progress, like the impact of artificial intelligence and automation on the workforce.
- Ineffective Leadership: Hanson discusses the critical role of leadership in the survival and vitality of civilizations. He highlights historical leaders whose actions and policies either saved or destroyed their societies. He addresses the risks posed by ineffective or authoritarian leaders, where a lack of vision can lead to mismanagement of crises and exacerbate turmoil.
- The Complexities of Globalization: Hanson explores the effects of globalization on modern culture, highlighting how increasing interconnectedness between different parts of the world creates opportunities and enhances a state’s resilience through trade and international cooperation while also rendering it more susceptible to global shocks. He cites global crises like pandemics and natural disasters that spread more rapidly in a connected world.
He reviews key contemporary global crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, to illustrate how modern issues have become transnational and far-reaching, indicating how health crises can influence economies and politics worldwide. He calls for the development of effective global response strategies to balance the opportunities presented by globalization against the associated risks, emphasizing the necessity of international cooperation for security and stability.
Learning from History:
In the final section of the book, Hanson summarizes the lessons drawn from this historical analysis of the causes of civilization collapse, stressing the necessity of learning from history to avoid repeating past mistakes. He advocates for adopting a balanced strategy based on a comprehensive future vision encompassing economic caution, environmental responsibility, military restraint, political credibility, cultural preservation, technology management, and effective leadership.
Hanson concludes by affirming that learning from history can help modern civilizations avoid collapse and contribute to building a more sustainable and resilient future. He stresses that such wars leading to genocide are not merely events of the past; they can recur in the present. He warns that some leaders may target their adversaries using the same mechanisms, exploiting the same factors as in history, suggesting that the Russo-Ukrainian War could be a model for repeating past scenarios where wars turned into total annihilation. He elucidates how political naivety and underestimating enemies often lead to catastrophic outcomes and points out that ignoring signs of hostility and escalation can be perilous.
In conclusion, Hanson acknowledges the significant challenges facing modern civilization but believes that by learning from the past, countries can avoid catastrophic collapse. He warns that failing to address contemporary challenges like climate change and pollution could lead to dire outcomes similar to those experienced by previous civilizations. He underscores the importance of collective action, enlightened leadership, and commitment to sustainability and equality to prevent the repetition of past experiences. He calls on contemporary societies, particularly the United States, to take proactive measures to ensure their survival and prosperity.
Source:
Victor Davis Hanson, The End of Everything: How Wars Descend into Annihilation, (New York: Basic Books, 2024).
