On June 29, 2024, Mauritania, located in the Sahel region of Africa, held its presidential elections. Seven candidates participated, including the current president, Mohamed Ould Ghazouani, who was announced to have won with over 56% of the votes. This election follows the 2019 presidential election, which marked the first democratic transfer of power between elected presidents since Mauritania’s independence from France in 1960. This was a departure from the usual pattern of unconstitutional power transfers through military coups that dominated the period from 1978 to 2008. Given this context, the 2024 presidential election can be understood and analyzed through several key dimensions and indicators that reflect voting trends.
Key Dimensions
Several key dimensions help understand and analyze the 2024 Mauritanian presidential election:
The Current President’s Re-election Bid:
President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani sought a second consecutive term after securing the presidency in the 2019 election. He aimed to leverage his party, “Insaf,” which won the majority in the National Assembly in the May 2023 elections, securing 107 out of 176 seats. The current president, 67, entered politics after retiring from the military as a general. He was previously the Chief of Staff of the Army and Director General of National Security during former President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz’s tenure. Ghazouani was a key figure in the 2008 military coup against the elected civilian president Sidi Mohamed Ould Cheikh Abdallahi and participated in the 2005 coup against former President Maaouya Ould Sid’Ahmed Taya.
Islamic Movement’s Candidate:
The National Rally for Reform and Development, known as “Tawassoul,” nominated its president, Hamadi Ould Sid El Moktar, who has led the party since 2022. Born in 1975, he is a prominent scholar specializing in Islamic law and has been elected twice to parliament representing the eastern Mauritanian district of Kiffa. Tawassoul is an opposition Islamist party linked to the Muslim Brotherhood. This marks the first time in nearly a decade and a half, since 2009, that the party has fielded a candidate.
Opposition’s Failure to Field a Unified Candidate:
The Mauritanian political opposition failed to present a broadly consensual candidate, resulting in five other candidates besides the Islamist candidate Hamadi Ould Sid El Moktar. Leading the pack is Biram Dah Abeid, born in 1965 and a prominent anti-slavery activist. He has run for president twice before, most recently in 2019, when he secured 18.5% of the votes but contested the results’ fairness. Other notable candidates included El Eid Ould Mohamedin, a lawyer and current member of parliament; Mohamed El Amin Ould El Wafi, an accountant and previous presidential candidate; Mamadou Bokarba, leader of the Alliance for Justice and Democracy; and Otuma Soumare, a physician.
Varied Electoral Priorities:
Each candidate had distinct electoral programs. President Ghazouani’s campaign focused on “Safe Change,” combating corruption, addressing youth unemployment, and fostering political harmony. Hamadi Ould Sid El Moktar promised price reductions, comprehensive educational reform, and equal wages for teachers and ministers, emphasizing Islamic identity and agricultural development. El Eid Ould Mohamedin highlighted the need for fundamental change and reforms in real estate, while the other candidates shared common priorities such as fighting corruption, optimizing resource utilization, empowering women, and promoting national unity.
Exclusion of Former President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz:
Despite being allowed to submit his candidacy papers, former President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, sentenced to three years in prison in December 2023 for corruption, was excluded from running due to constitutional term limits. He previously served two terms following his takeover in a 2008 coup. Abdel Aziz criticized the decision and denounced President Ghazouani’s administration as a failure.
Increased Opposition Criticism of Election Arrangements:
Several opposition candidates criticized government media bias favoring President Ghazouani and accused the Independent Electoral Commission of failing to ensure fair elections. This led five candidates to boycott state media. Some candidates, like Biram Dah Abeid, alleged vote-buying collusion between the commission and the president. Despite forming a national observer body, opposition parties saw it as a tool for electoral manipulation, compounded by the limited presence of international observers.
Low Voter Turnout:
Voter turnout was relatively low, reflecting widespread skepticism about the electoral process’s efficacy, with estimates suggesting around 55% participation.
Ethnic Influences in Voting Patterns:
While President Ghazouani won the election, ethnic dynamics influenced the results. Biram Dah Abeid gained significant support in regions with high populations of black Mauritanians and Haratines. Ghazouani still managed to attract votes from these groups and saw significant support in predominantly Arab regions like Hodh Ech Chargui and Hodh El Gharbi.
Indicative Trends
Several trends can be identified from the voting patterns in the June 29, 2024, presidential election:
Continued Dominance of the Incumbent:
President Ghazouani’s victory, with about 56% of the vote, underscores his control over state institutions and support from the military, traditional political elites, business leaders, tribal elders, and influential Sufi movements. Major opposition parties like the Democratic Forces Bloc and the Popular Progressive Alliance also supported him.
Security Success Claims:
Ghazouani often highlights his ability to maintain internal security, with no significant terrorist attacks since 2011, despite regional instability in the Sahel. His administration’s developmental policies, including the establishment of the National Solidarity and Anti-Exclusion Agency “Taazour,” have benefited over 1.5 million citizens.
Challenges Facing the Islamist Movement:
Hamadi Ould Sid El Moktar faced significant challenges, including internal party divisions, the defection of key leaders to the ruling party, and limited popular support. Tawassoul won 11 seats in the 2023 legislative elections, the most for an opposition party.
Weak Opposition Mobilization:
The opposition’s inability to unite behind a single candidate and the perception of some candidates’ biases toward Ghazouani weakened their political impact. Candidates like El Eid Ould Mohamedin faced accusations of being too aligned with the incumbent. Biram Dah Abeid also faced societal backlash for his controversial actions and statements.
Potential for Increased Internal Strife:
Election results could escalate internal tensions, especially with candidates like Biram Dah Abeid rejecting the results and calling for civil disobedience. This situation highlights the challenges Ghazouani will face in his second term, including high youth unemployment, rising living costs, migration issues, and pervasive corruption.
In conclusion, President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani’s continued grip on power in the 2024 presidential election is attributed to his control over state institutions and the fragmented opposition. However, he faces significant challenges ahead, including addressing youth unemployment, living costs, migration, and corruption, amid accusations of regression to past political practices.
