Future Threats: Arming F-35 Aircraft with Guided Nuclear Bombs

Nuclear bombs pose a significant threat to global security and stability, especially given the existence of nuclear arsenals in nine countries. Russia and the United States hold the majority of the world’s nuclear warheads. Despite this, their military laboratories continue to engage in research and development to create smaller, more destructive, and more penetrating guided nuclear bombs. As this arms race progresses, nuclear agreements between these two nations are gradually crumbling, with treaties falling apart one by one amidst complex global political issues that challenge the sovereignty and dominance of both countries.

Nuclear armament is a critical tool for asserting influence and dominance over international matters. Therefore, neither country spares any effort in enhancing their nuclear triads on land, sea, and air. They frequently showcase their capabilities and improve their delivery systems to achieve greater accuracy and range. In this context, Ross Gomer, the director of the F-35 program, announced on March 8, 2024, that the American F-35 fighter jets have officially been certified to carry B61-12 nuclear bombs, making them the first fifth-generation stealth aircraft to do so.

Nuclear-Armed States

There are nine countries in the world that possess nuclear weapons: Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. According to the latest global nuclear stockpile statistics published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in its 2023 yearbook, there are 12,512 nuclear warheads worldwide. Russia and the United States hold 88.98% of the global nuclear arsenal, with Russia possessing 5,889 nuclear warheads, surpassing the United States, which has 5,244 warheads. Israel has 90 nuclear warheads, although some reports suggest that it has enough nuclear material to produce 200 warheads. The following table (Table 1) provides estimates of the nuclear warheads held by the nine aforementioned countries and the date of their first nuclear test.

Table 1: Nuclear Warhead Stockpiles by Country

Nuclear Developments

Despite the existence of agreements to reduce nuclear arsenals between Russia and the United States, the only treaty that has remained in effect is the New START Treaty, which Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his country would suspend its participation in. The New START Treaty is a strategic arms reduction treaty between the United States and Russia. This announcement came as a result of the tensions arising from the Russia-Ukraine war.

Information indicates that the development of nuclear weapons did not cease with the signing of treaties between the two parties. Instead, work continued in American nuclear facilities and laboratories on enhancing nuclear armament. Some of these laboratories played a crucial role in developing the first (15 kiloton TNT equivalent) and second (21 kiloton TNT equivalent) nuclear bombs, which were dropped on the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II. Examples of these laboratories include Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee, and Mound Laboratory in Ohio.

American Nuclear Arsenal and Development Plans

The United States possesses various types of nuclear bombs with advanced designs compared to earlier versions. These include the gun-type design, such as the “Little Boy” bomb, and the implosion-type design, like the “Fat Man” bomb. More advanced designs include the “boosted fission” design, which uses a mixture of fusion materials as a neutron source to achieve a much higher rate of nuclear fission than can be achieved by conventional fission alone.

The United States also possesses thermonuclear bombs, sometimes referred to as hydrogen or fusion bombs, which are 100 to 1,000 times more destructive than fission bombs, with their explosive power measured in megatons. Since the 1990s, the United States has been striving to equip its air forces with low-yield, precision-guided nuclear weapons by developing programs to upgrade its thermonuclear bombs. This effort began in earnest when the Obama administration approved the upgrade of the B61 nuclear bomb by using a new tail kit and converting it into a guided nuclear bomb. This upgrade, known as the twelfth modification to the original B61 design (with the highest setting of the new bomb’s yield being 50 kilotons), is intended to enhance the accuracy and extend the range of the bomb.

In November 2020, the F-35 fighter jet conducted training strike missions by dropping the B61-12 nuclear bomb from an altitude of 25,000 feet (7,620 meters) at a speed of 1 Mach (1,234.8 km/h) in the Tonopah Test Range. These upgraded bombs have also been integrated into Dutch aircraft, enabling their deployment in the Pacific theater or any other operational theater.

Confirmed Risks and Future Threats

Integrating nuclear bombs into this specific model of low-observable (LO) fighter jets poses a significant risk in offensive operations for two reasons. First, the aircraft’s high penetration capability, utilizing its design that makes it difficult for radars to continuously track it, complicates interception. Second, the aircraft’s use of digital stealth, employing its electronic warfare capabilities through the AN/ASQ-239 system to jam or evade air defense radars or enemy fighters, particularly X-band radars, which guide missiles. The aircraft also features a revolutionary mission computer that operates in a mode similar to the “Raid Assessment Mode,” functioning almost like a mini command-and-control center, linking various systems together.

Most scientific estimates suggest that this type of bomb, along with the aforementioned integration, will increase the likelihood of using nuclear weapons. In other words, nuclear weapons could shift from a “deterrence policy” to a “direct use policy.” This is further evidenced by the U.S. military’s announcement of plans to develop a new class of nuclear gravity bombs, the B61-13, to replace the older B61-12 generation, which lacks sufficient payload to destroy hardened underground targets.

Effects of Using a Nuclear Bomb

There is no clear way to estimate the impact of a single nuclear bomb, as it depends on several factors, including the weather conditions on the day it is dropped, the time of detonation, the geographical nature of the target area, and whether the bomb explodes on the ground, in the air, or underground. However, there are a set of initial and subsequent effects that can be observed. For example, the general patterns of damage resulting from a 10-kiloton nuclear explosion on the ground can be represented as follows (as shown in Figure 1):

The destruction caused by the primary effects—shock waves, thermal energy, and initial radiation—expands in a circular pattern. Severe shock wave damage can extend up to half a mile, severe thermal damage can extend nearly a mile, debris can be thrown several miles, and the initial (immediate) nuclear radiation from a 10-kiloton explosion can expose unprotected individuals within approximately 3/4 mile of the blast site to a lethal radiation dose.

Fallout radiation spreads in an irregular oval pattern in the direction of the wind, with lethal radiation possibly extending up to 6 miles.

It is estimated that approximately 35% of the energy released from a nuclear explosion is in the form of thermal radiation. Since thermal radiation travels at nearly the speed of light, the first effect is a flash of blinding light and heat. The light alone is enough to cause “flash blindness,” a temporary form of vision loss that can last for several minutes. For example, if a 1-megaton bomb—about 80 times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima—were to explode, people as far as 21 kilometers (13 miles) away would experience flash blindness on a clear day, and those up to 85 kilometers (52.8 miles) away would be temporarily blinded on a clear night.

Heat poses a significant danger to those closest to the explosion, where first-degree burns can occur up to 11 kilometers (6.8 miles) away, and third-degree burns—which destroy and blister skin tissues—can affect anyone within 8 kilometers (5 miles). Third-degree burns covering more than 24% of the body are likely to be fatal if the individuals do not receive immediate medical care.

Conclusion

Nuclear weapons are a type of weapon of mass destruction, and their use entails significant risks that extend beyond the country deploying them or the country targeted. Their effects can impact an entire region or even the world as a whole. The international community, particularly nuclear-armed states, is well aware of these dangers, which has led to the formulation of treaties and agreements, most notably the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. However, this treaty has not succeeded in limiting the number of nuclear-armed states, as four countries have managed to join the five major powers in the nuclear military club. Moreover, other nuclear agreements, particularly those concerning the handling of nuclear warheads between major powers like Russia and the United States, have only managed to reduce the number of warheads but have not eliminated the severe danger posed by current military nuclear stockpiles, which have been developed to be more efficient and deadly.

Amid efforts to reduce the number of nuclear weapons in the world, efforts to develop them have increased in parallel. Recent developments in American laboratories, like the B61-12, and the recent integration of the bomb into fifth-generation fighter jets like the F-35, which have unique stealth capabilities, along with the American military’s public demonstration of these capabilities, including training missions and field experiments, suggest a growing danger that could alter global stability and increase the likelihood of conflicts escalating to nuclear confrontations.