Recent events regarding the French presence in Africa are unfolding rapidly. The visit of the French Foreign Minister to the sub-Saharan region included Chad, Ethiopia, and Senegal, followed by decisions from Chad and Senegal to end the military presence of French forces on their territories. Additionally, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu’s visit to Paris signals the opening of a new chapter in “French-African” relations, emphasizing economic interests over military ones. This shift could shape the future dynamics between France and African nations, presenting a choice for Macron between changing the outdated colonial strategy and strengthening frameworks for joint cooperation based on diverse economic investments, or seeking new partners to launch new military bases on their lands.
Zeroing Out the French Military Presence in Africa: It seems that Africa can no longer tolerate the military presence of France. After a series of withdrawals from West Africa, only Chad and Senegal remain, where approximately 500 French soldiers, trainers, and advisors are stationed. The French Ministry of Defense had announced prior to the recent elections its intent to reduce this number to 260 by June, but Senegalese President Macky Sall affirmed that his country’s sovereignty and independence are incompatible with the presence of foreign military bases, even though this does not mean a complete break with Paris. Thus, it is time to consider partnerships devoid of military presence, according to Sall’s statements on November 28, 2024.
In parallel with these statements from Senegal, Chad announced through a statement from its foreign ministry the termination of a defense cooperation agreement with France, amended in 2019, necessitating the departure of French forces. This decision could empower N’Djamena, a key ally in the western war against extremists, to reassess its strategic partnerships with France, thus imposing its full sovereignty after 66 years of independence. This decision could significantly impact the nature of relations between the two countries, redirecting them from military concerns to constructive cooperation in other fields. Currently, it is worth noting that Paris has about a thousand soldiers and aircraft stationed in Chad.
The French Foreign Minister’s Tour in Africa: On November 27, 2024, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot embarked on a tour in sub-Saharan Africa—the first visit since assuming office in September—covering Chad, Ethiopia, and Senegal at a time when Paris is expected to announce a significant reduction of its military presence on the continent. The goal is to restore its influence through diplomatic and humanitarian channels rather than primarily military presence, according to his statements.
In Chad, France is utilizing its humanitarian arm, with Barrot visiting the city of Adré near the eastern border with Sudan to reaffirm France’s commitment to humanitarian promises. The crisis in Sudan remains a focal point for France as a plan to return to Africa through relief efforts, having hosted a donors’ conference in April that secured commitments of around 2 billion euros.
In Ethiopia, home to the African Union, France is attempting to utilize its reformative drive while supporting the AU’s demands for better representation and closer cooperation with the UN. It backs proposals for two permanent seats for Africa on the UN Security Council. Notably, France seeks to reshape its military presence in Africa, veiling its efforts behind humanitarian aid and economic cooperation with countries beyond those it previously failed in.
In Senegal, France is set to participate on December 1, 2024, in the 80th anniversary commemorations of the Thiaroye massacre, where Senegalese soldiers were killed by French colonial forces. President Sall confirmed he received a letter from Macron on November 28 acknowledging France’s full responsibility for that massacre, which occurred in Dakar in December 1944, seeing it as a significant step from Macron.
Previous French Withdrawals from the Sahel and Sahara: By the end of last year, a curtain fell on French colonial influence in the Sahel and Sahara, with its presence, particularly in Mali, Burkina Faso, and the recent exit from Niger, notably diminished. The formation of a coalition among Sahel states marked a significant blow to French influence, replaced largely by Russian presence. This shift has prompted the Élysée to reassess its policies and approach to African countries—considering “replacement and change” of the nations it withdrew from with new partners, departing from the “Françafrique” policy. However, the question remains whether France will commit to this course or be swayed by its colonial past.
Tinubu’s Visit to France: President Bola Tinubu’s visit to the Élysée on November 28 and 29, 2024, marks the first visit of a Nigerian president to France in 24 years, aimed at solidifying cooperation and developing new partnerships between economic players in both countries. This emphasizes France’s efforts to re-establish itself in Africa after its failures in the Sahel, seeking new partners beyond those it previously withdrew from.
Significance of the Visit: This visit comes amid the decline of French influence in the Sahel, following a series of military coups in Africa, which have prompted many nations to reconsider their stances toward their former colonizer. The visit signifies a critical moment for President Emmanuel Macron, who is striving for renewal and seeking new partners. Tinubu’s visit presents an opportunity to deepen dynamic relations between Paris and Abuja, particularly as Nigeria stands as Africa’s largest oil producer and possesses a strong film industry. For Nigeria, this trip represents an opportunity to leverage economic investment, aiming to build relationships in agriculture, security, education, and health, alongside youth engagement, innovation, and energy transition.
Why English-Speaking Africa? Macron’s new strategy in Africa seeks to counterbalance the declining influence of France, turning back to countries like Nigeria in 2018, Ethiopia in 2019, and South Africa in 2021, prompted by prior failures in the Sahel. This has accelerated the diversification of partnerships and the search for new active players in the region. Tinubu’s visit reflects Paris’s approach towards English-speaking Africa, distancing itself from ineffective francophone policies and broadening partnerships with English-speaking nations to regain its influence.
Future of the French Presence in Africa: Current dynamics between Paris and Africa represent a reordering of relations. There is a growing aversion among Africans toward maintaining military presence, reflecting a desire to end the French colonial empire decisively and to eradicate its remnants. Steps taken by Chad and Senegal resonate with this sentiment. Based on these trends, we can anticipate several potential paths for “French-African” relations in the near future:
First Path: Diversifying Partnerships:
The conditions suggest that France may alter its course in Africa, moving from military strategy to diversifying partnerships across the continent, actively engaging in broader economic investment projects, and strengthening political ties with African leaders, especially as Russian influence expands, becoming an increasingly acceptable partner based on a non-colonial history in contrast to the waning popularity of France.
Second Path: Circumvention and Reorientation:
Considering the parallel movements being implemented by French authorities—such as the Foreign Minister’s visit to Africa while concurrently hosting Nigeria’s president—there are indications that France is seeking to restore its influence anew. This may include reshuffling partnerships and creating new allies through economic initiatives, which could serve as a pretext for establishing new military bases distinct from previous locations, thus repeating historical patterns in other nations while employing economic motives as a facade for deeper objectives. This scenario appears plausible, particularly in the long term.
Third Path: Decline of French Influence:
Macron aims to find new footholds within the competitive landscape of various forces in Africa. However, the African ethos and leadership have reached a breaking point regarding the legacy of colonialism, particularly given France’s limited success in combating extremism and terrorism. Therefore, there is a risk that France may lose its relevance on the continent, especially after its demonstrated failures in the Sahel. While this potential outcome might seem unlikely, given France’s ongoing efforts to reclaim its former influence and illusion of empire, it remains a critical consideration.
Conclusion:
French francophony has proven ineffective in Africa, particularly in its western territories where French influence has waned. Nevertheless, Paris is attempting to find new partners, especially in English-speaking countries, aiming to reposition itself. Thus, Tinubu’s visit carries significant implications, potentially guiding the Élysée in re-establishing ties with Africa through Nigeria, forging stronger relationships, and simply altering the region’s alliances, diverging from nations where France has failed. Paris will likely intensify its efforts to engage in new relations and formal exchanges with various African nations in the near future.
References
French foreign minister tackles Sudan crisis and UN reform on Africa trip, RFI, November 2024, URL: https://n9.cl/68q0z
