France as a Model: The Future Role of National Armies in Responding to Climate Disasters
As the risks of natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, droughts, wildfires, and others increase due to the intensifying effects of climate change worldwide, questions are being raised about the roles and future responsibilities of national armies in responding to such disasters, both within their own countries and abroad. These questions have become more pressing in light of the strategic interconnections between international responses to climate disasters and the geopolitical competition among major powers in the global system.
In this context, the role of the French armed forces is particularly significant. They regularly conduct relief operations or disaster response activities (ISU) to support the country’s civil protection forces. Additionally, they can execute these operations internationally (IESU) upon the request of a nation facing disasters, either through bilateral assistance or multilateral mechanisms like the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism (MEPC) or the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
A report issued by the French Defense and Climate Observatory in May 2024 discusses the evolution of the frequency and intensity of climate-related natural disasters, as well as the role of the French armed forces in responding to these disasters over the past decade. It then examines the relationship between climate change and international response operations from a global perspective, presenting potential scenarios and some recommendations for the French Ministry of Defense.
The Evolution of Climate Disasters:
Climate change is likely to lead to a range of natural disasters, such as floods, storms, wildfires, and droughts, which could result in significant human and economic losses and damage to infrastructure, particularly in highly urbanized areas under strong demographic pressure. According to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), floods accounted for 41% of the 399 natural disasters recorded worldwide in 2023, making them the most common type of natural disaster, followed by hurricanes at 34%, and then earthquakes, wildfires, droughts, and volcanic activity.
The INFORM Risk Index, which assesses the vulnerability of populations to climate disasters, indicates that Asia was the most flood-prone continent in 2023, with 11 of the 15 most affected countries being in Asia, including Pakistan, China, India, and Russia. East Asia also hosts the countries most exposed to tropical cyclones, such as Japan, South Korea, China, India, and the Caribbean islands. According to the index, the four countries most vulnerable to drought globally are located in Africa (Somalia, Namibia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa). Thus, Asia, Africa, and the Caribbean are the regions most affected by the most common climate-related natural disasters on a global scale.
In France, the distribution of natural risks in 2023 shows that floods, significantly exacerbated by climate change, accounted for about 56% of these risks. The second and third most common risks were landslides and the shrinking of clay soils. Finally, weather-related phenomena, particularly wildfires driven by extreme heat, droughts, and storms, represent the fourth natural risk, particularly affecting southern France. More than 219,000 hectares of forests burned in France between 2008 and 2023.
The increasing frequency and intensity of climate disasters have not been matched by a parallel increase in the involvement of the French armed forces in climate-related disaster response operations. Other factors are considered, including the enhancement of civil protection resources, which may help absorb the growing climate pressures. French military disaster response operations have not led to the allocation of additional military resources alongside civil protection forces: the military civil protection training units (ForMiSC), which are army units composed of three training and civil protection intervention units (UIISC), and the Paris Fire Brigade (BSPP).
The Defense and Climate Observatory conducted a census of the responses carried out by French ForMiSC units on French soil between 2014 and 2023. According to these data, 48 interventions were conducted by these units, with approximately 2,599 ForMiSC personnel involved in climate-related disaster responses. Wildfires accounted for 38% of these disasters, floods for 33%, and storms and hurricanes for 29%.
International Disaster Responses:
To map the international ecosystem for external climate disaster responses, the Defense and Climate Observatory identified operations conducted by France and several other leading countries in this field, including the United States, China, and India.
1) France: Climate disaster response does not appear to be a specific area of effort for most European countries, especially when it comes to interventions outside the European Union. For example, between 2010 and 2023, Spain conducted only four relief operations, and Greece carried out five responses. In contrast, France committed to at least 28 external climate disaster responses between 2010 and 2023. These were mainly for three types of disasters, with hurricanes and storms being the most significant, particularly in the Caribbean, Central America, South Africa, and the Pacific Ocean. France also engaged in wildfire responses in Europe (Greece and Sweden) and South America, as well as heavy rainfall and flood responses, especially in Europe (Belgium, Germany, and Italy). In Africa, France’s main focus has been responding to hurricanes, notably in Mozambique in 2019 and Madagascar in 2022, with a one-time intervention for floods in Chad in 2022.
2) United States: The United States largely dominates the international ecosystem for climate disaster response. According to the Defense and Climate Observatory’s census, the U.S. has twice as many external climate responses compared to Australia, China, and India between 2010 and 2023. The U.S. also shows a wide range of capabilities in responding to various climate disasters, including hurricanes, heavy rainfall, floods, extreme temperatures, and wildfires. During the study period, the Defense and Climate Observatory recorded 12 U.S. responses to natural disasters caused by climate change. The U.S. has significant human and military resources in the Indo-Pacific region, enabling it to mobilize and respond to disasters. Between 2010 and 2023, the U.S. frequently intervened in the Philippines and, to a lesser extent, in Pakistan, Thailand, Japan, and South Korea, primarily in response to hurricanes and floods.
3) China: Like the United States, China exhibits a diverse range of external climate disaster responses (around 14 responses), intervening after hurricanes, heavy rainfall, floods, and droughts. Notably, China, like India, regularly responds to droughts, while the U.S. increases its wildfire responses—a type of disaster in which China has invested little. China also operates in vast geographic areas, such as the Caribbean. During the French Defense and Climate Observatory’s study period, China also conducted two responses in Africa: in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2019 and during the Ebola crisis in West Africa from 2014 to 2016. However, the Indo-Pacific region is where China has increased its presence and contributions to humanitarian aid, as it is of strategic importance to China. Between 2010 and 2023, Beijing conducted 11 relief operations in the region, where China finds itself in direct competition with the United States to establish itself as a regional security power.
4) India: India, which for a long time was a recipient rather than a responder of relief, has positioned itself as an emerging power in external climate disaster responses over the past decade. During the Defense and Climate Observatory’s study period, there were 16 external climate-related disaster responses, mainly hurricanes and storms, heavy rainfall and floods, and droughts, making it less diverse compared to the U.S. or even China.
These Indian responses appear concentrated in the nearby geographic region, following the “Neighborhood First” policy it pursues in South Asia. However, India’s ambitions extend beyond this. There were three external responses in Madagascar (2018, 2020, 2021) and one in Mozambique in 2019, indicating a desire to expand areas of intervention. This does not only concern external responses in the context of climate disasters but also in non-climate natural disasters. For example, India participated in humanitarian aid in Turkey and Syria after the February 2023 earthquake.
Possible French Scenarios:
The French Defense and Climate Observatory report presents three main future scenarios regarding climate disasters and the French role, especially abroad:
1) Scenario One: Loss of French Influence in the Mediterranean by 2046: The Mediterranean region is expected to experience extreme temperature increases, with maximum temperatures reaching 55°C. Reduced rainfall will lead to land drought and a sharp decline in groundwater levels, deteriorating water and food security in the region. The Chinese military, benefiting from its presence in Djibouti, could demonstrate its military, operational, and technological superiority, potentially enhancing China’s influence in the region thanks to advancements in cybersecurity, surveillance, and intelligence systems, enabling it to gather information on French military technologies, strategic sites, and infrastructure in the area.
2) Scenario Two: Humanitarian Crisis in the South Pacific by 2050: The South Pacific will experience an increase in regional average temperatures by 2.6°C, with the regional sea level rising by 33 cm compared to 2024 levels. The 118 Polynesian islands, covering an area of 2.5 million square kilometers, will face gradual submersion, particularly on the island of Tahiti. In April 2050, a cyclone could form west of the Polynesian islands, causing eight-meter-high waves. It would move south, between the Gambier and Austral Islands, which are entirely devoid of relief resources for the population. Heavy rains would destroy crops, food reserves, and homes.
In this context, state services could collapse rapidly, forcing the Austral and Gambier Islands to wait for urban French assistance. However, it would be India, alongside Japan, providing the most significant aid. As a result, the French armed forces could find themselves with a capability imbalance, affecting France’s political legitimacy not only in
the region but on a global scale.
3) Scenario Three: Worsening of Global Climate Tensions in 2070: This scenario combines two major trends. Firstly, global energy demand will continue to increase, resulting in a more than 30% increase in annual greenhouse gas emissions. Secondly, a 1.8°C increase in global average temperatures will occur by 2070. Extreme climate events will become more frequent and severe, causing significant displacement and migration. The most affected regions will be those already facing severe economic and social challenges, such as Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.
The report’s conclusions emphasize that while French national sovereignty will be tested by the worsening of climate change impacts, it will also be challenged by increasingly intense geopolitical competition between major powers. Therefore, it is crucial to consider the roles and responsibilities of national armies in responding to climate disasters and to anticipate their involvement in future scenarios.
Reference
Marine de Guglielmo Weber, ET autres, “Interventions de secours d’urgence en réponse aux catastrophes climatiques: quel rôle et quels enjeux pour les forces armées françaises?”, L’Observatoire Défense et Climat, Mai 2024.
