The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the fragility of the global system, as this crisis is the most impactful since World War II, affecting health, economy, and politics. Its repercussions are likely to persist for years to come. In fact, the world is expected to face more severe challenges in the coming decades, ranging from climate change to disruptions caused by rapid technological transformations, financial crises, and more. These challenges will continually test the resilience and adaptability of societies, nations, and the international system, often surpassing the efficiency of existing systems and models.
In this context, the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), established in 1979, publishes a strategic report every four years titled “Global Trends.” The council’s seventh report focuses on three main areas: first, the fundamental structural forces shaping the world, namely demographics, environment, economy, and technology; second, how these structural forces interact with other factors to influence emerging dynamics at the individual, societal, national, and international levels; and third, it presents five potential future scenarios for the world in 2040.
Structural Forces:
Geographical, environmental, economic, and technological developments will shape the world we will live in over the coming decades, laying the foundation and setting the boundaries of our future world, as follows:
Demographics:
Over the next twenty years, the most assured trends will be demographic transformations. With the global population growth slowing and the world aging rapidly, some advanced and emerging economies, particularly in Europe and East Asia, will experience an even faster aging and face population decline, impacting economic growth. In contrast, some developing countries in Latin America, South Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa will enjoy a larger population of working-age individuals, indicating greater social stability. According to the report, it is highly likely that changing global demographic trends will exacerbate inequalities in economic opportunities both within and between countries, creating additional pressures and conflicts related to migration.
Environment:
Climate change will exacerbate risks faced by the world due to rising temperatures, droughts, and melting ice. However, these effects will be unevenly distributed globally, with the greatest impact falling on developing countries and the poorest regions, affecting economic prosperity. Environmental degradation will increase risks in the food, water, health, and energy security sectors. Governments, communities, and the private sector are likely to expand adaptation and resilience measures to manage these threats. The main challenge will be to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality through new technologies.
Economy:
Economic trends are likely to differ in the next two decades more than demographic and climatic trends, including rising national debts, a complex global trade environment, the global expansion of new services, and labor market disruptions. Trade rules and regulations will intensify, while declining investments will delay carbon emission reduction efforts. Large companies that provide online markets for large numbers of buyers and sellers may enhance trade globalization and help small businesses grow and reach international markets. These powerful companies will likely attempt to exert influence in both political and social spheres, potentially leading governments to impose new restrictions.
Technology:
Technology will provide opportunities to mitigate issues such as climate change and develop vaccines for pandemics while also creating new challenges, such as job creation. New innovation centers will emerge. Over the next two decades, the pace and impact of technological advancements will accelerate and transform human experiences and capacities, creating new tensions and disruptions for all actors. Technology may increase social tensions between those who can adapt and those who cannot, with global competition for technological superiority intensifying, accelerating new technologies and disparate applications that require greater adaptability.
Emerging Dynamics:
The report examines how the previous four structural forces interact with each other and intersect with other factors to influence emerging dynamics at three levels: individual and society, state, and international system. These dynamics can be outlined as follows:
Individual and Society: Fragmentation and competitive growth will increase in economic, cultural, and political areas. Large portions of the global population will become distrustful of institutions and governments perceived as unable to meet their needs due to rapid social and technological changes. They will turn to groups that share similar ideas, ethnic, religious, and cultural identities. This combination of new identities and isolated information environments will uncover fractures within states, undermine civic nationalism, and increase instability.
State: Governments will face increasing pressures from a range of economic, demographic, and environmental constraints, along with rising empowerment among the population. The growing gap between public demands and government responses, owing to limited resources, will result in heightened tensions, political instability, and erosion of democracy. This disconnect may also lead to the emergence of new or changing sources and models of governance.
International System: Over the next two decades, power within the international system will evolve, including an expansion of technological power and information networks. It is unlikely that any single country will be able to dominate all regions or domains, allowing more actors to defend their interests. The United States and China will exert the most influence on global dynamics, supporting competing visions for the international system and governance that reflect their core interests and ideologies. In this more competitive global environment, the risks of conflict between states will multiply due to technological advancements, the increasing number of targets and new boundaries, greater diversity of actors, weakened deterrence tools, and a lack of treaties and regulations.
Potential Scenarios:
Human responses to these structural forces and emerging dynamics will determine how the world develops in the next two decades. The NIC’s report anticipates the future through three key questions: How severe are the emerging global challenges? How do states and non-state actors engage in the world? What are the priorities of states for the future?
Through these questions, the report presents five potential scenarios for the world in 2040, three of which describe future prospects where international challenges gradually increase, largely determined by competition between the U.S. and China. The other two scenarios describe more radical changes arising from significant international disruptions, where Washington and Beijing must confront greater global challenges and find that current structures do not adapt to these challenges. The five scenarios can be detailed as follows:
Scenario One: The Resurgence of Democracy:
The world witnesses a genuine return of open democracies, led by the United States and its allies. Rapid technological advances, enabled by public-private partnerships in the U.S. and other democratic societies, could reshape the global economy, increase income, and improve the quality of life for millions worldwide. The combination of better service delivery and anti-corruption efforts may restore public trust in institutions. Over time, severe repression, stagnant economic growth, and increasing demographic pressures may undermine existing authoritarian regimes in China and Russia, thus hampering innovation, predicting a kind of stagnation for both countries.
Scenario Two: A Drifting World:
According to this scenario, the international order is directionless, chaotic, and unstable, with major powers like China largely ignoring international rules and institutions. OECD countries experience slow economic growth, while China exploits the West’s difficulties to extend its international influence, particularly in Asia. Yet, Beijing lacks the will and military power to assume global leadership, leaving many challenges, such as climate change and instability in developing countries, largely unaddressed.
Scenario Three: Coexistence in a Competitive Environment:
This scenario assumes that the international system will see centered competition between the United States and China regarding economic growth and enhancing economic interconnection, alongside political influence, governance models, technological supremacy, and strategic advantage. The risk of major war diminishes, and great powers avoid armed conflict while engaging in influence operations, corporate espionage, R&D initiatives, and cyberattacks, allowing them to achieve goals without risking destructive wars. International cooperation and technological innovation make global problems manageable in the short term for advanced economies, but long-term climate challenges remain.
Scenario Four: Separate Silos:
According to this scenario, the world divides into several economic and security blocs of varying sizes and strengths centered around the U.S., China, the EU, Russia, and a handful of regional powers. These blocs focus on issues like self-sufficiency and resilience, with larger countries having abundant resources and defensible borders, such as the U.S. and Canada, becoming more adaptable and resilient than most countries. At the same time, other countries may collapse. To maintain internal stability, states adopt mixed political models combining elements of democracy and authoritarianism, increasing surveillance and repression while information flows through separate cyber pockets, redirecting supply chains and disrupting international trade alongside the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Scenario Five: Mobilization:
In this scenario, the world witnesses a global alliance led by the EU and China, in collaboration with NGOs and multilateral institutions, to find solutions for addressing climate change, resource depletion, food insecurity, and environmental degradation. Europe takes the lead in promoting sustainable development, while China adopts new energy technologies. Wealthier countries assist poorer countries in managing crises and transitioning to low-carbon economies. Multilateral organizations and active groups gain unprecedented influence in shaping new standards and mobilizing resources, sometimes prioritizing global interests over national ones.
In conclusion, it should be noted that these scenarios are not intended to be predictions; rather, they aim to broaden the range of possibilities by exploring different configurations of structural forces and emerging dynamics to aid policymakers in formulating a vision in line with these scenarios and preparing to meet them.
According to the NIC report, over the next two decades, China will seek to assert dominance in Asia and increase its influence worldwide. Other major powers, including Russia, the EU, Japan, the UK, and possibly India, may have more space to exert their influence. Russia is likely to continue to disrupt the global order, deepening divisions in the West and solidifying its relationships with countries in Africa, the Middle East, and elsewhere. In this competitive environment, regional powers such as Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Iran, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the UAE will seek to capitalize on new opportunities and assume roles previously held by major powers to enhance regional stability or gain influence.
Source:
Le Monde en 2040 vu par la CIA: Un monde plus contesté, Éditions des Équateurs, Paris, Avril 2021.
