Election campaigns serve as pivotal moments for political parties around the world to connect with voters, seeking their support and endorsement through various means, including publications, posters, door-to-door campaigns, and diverse messaging aimed at mobilizing voters within the democratic framework of electoral processes. However, over the past decade, traditional images of election campaigns have faced a significant challenge; political parties are perceived to have amassed extensive databases of personal information, employing complex analytical techniques to generate unprecedented insights into individuals’ personal lives, ultimately aiming to manipulate voters and the electoral process.
Such practices paint a particular picture of the role that data plays in contemporary election campaigns, raising concerns about the democratic nature of the electoral process. In this context, the importance of the book “Data-Driven Campaigns and Political Parties: A Comparative Study of Five Advanced Democracies,” published in 2024 and authored by Catherine Dommett, Glenn K. O’Neill, and Simon Krushinsky, becomes evident. It is the first international comparative study of data-driven campaigns (DDC) across five Western democracies: Australia, Canada, Germany, the United States, and the United Kingdom, examining the diverse and complex electoral practices within 18 political parties in those countries.
The book defines DDC as a method of election campaigning that seeks to utilize data to develop and deliver campaign interventions, aiming to influence citizens’ attitudes and behaviors. Although the cases of the five democratic countries studied share similarities in many respects, they exhibit significant variations in systemic and organizational dimensions. Even within the same political context, electoral campaigning techniques are adopted differently by various political entities.
The authors distinguish four components of these electoral campaigns: data, analytics, technology, and staffing, highlighting how activities may vary at each level. They also explore the reasons for the differences in DDC practices by providing empirical data collected from the case studies in the five countries, considering the importance of systemic and organizational factors at the party level as drivers of campaign practices.
Types of Electoral Data
The book discusses the various tools and techniques used to collect, analyze, and utilize data in electoral campaigns, treating them as independent variables. There are four primary types of data. The first type is public data, which may be paid or free, sourced from electoral commissions or national statistical offices, including age, gender, postal code, and marital status. The second type is disclosed data, provided directly by citizens to political parties through direct voter contact activities, such as door-to-door canvassing, telephone banking, and email outreach. The third type is tracking data, which comes from online data monitoring; for instance, parties may seek to mobilize donations, allowing volunteers to test competing campaign messages and use data monitoring, such as the timing of email openings and the sites visited after emails are sent. The fourth and final type is inferential data, which employs a representative sample to draw conclusions about voting intentions.
The authors argue that publicly available data is a crucial component of the databases that political parties rely on in many advanced democracies. However, there is variation in the type and extent of availability of this data in the case studies presented. In Australia, political parties have easy access to a vast reservoir of such data, with registered parties granted access to the electoral roll from the Australian Electoral Commission, which contains details like the names and addresses of all citizens registered to vote, representing approximately 90% of the adult population.
This situation mirrors that of the United Kingdom, where political parties can access the electoral register for their constituencies, as stipulated by the Representation of the People Act. They can also purchase a marked register, indicating who voted and who did not in the last election, with parties incorporating this information into their databases.
While the publicly available data for Canadian parties may not be as extensive as that in Australia or the United Kingdom, or as variable as in the United States, it is still not as limited as in Germany, where financial resources allocated to political parties are scarce, and the party financing system is strict; particularly since public data is only released six months before elections.
The Canada Elections Act includes provisions for supplying political parties with a copy of the electoral register annually, along with an updated list after judicial orders are completed, containing information such as first name, last name, address, and the electoral code used by Elections Canada. However, this data may be of limited value, as individuals can register to vote at the same time as casting their ballot, and it is not always available prior to elections. In the United States, all four types of data are utilized due to the developed data-buying industry and relatively weak regulatory oversight, while public data in Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom serves as the primary source. In Germany, while these data are significantly important, access is more restricted.
Analyzing the Electoral Process
The manner in which data is analyzed and used as part of the campaigns conducted by political parties remains “opaque” due to the confidentiality of those parties regarding their data analysis practices and the statistical and computational processes involved. There is concern about allowing “outsiders” to understand the rationale behind decision-making. Analytics, understood as a component of DDC, can be seen as outputs derived from sorting and scrutinizing data to provide insights that help decision-makers determine how to allocate their capital and labor resources.
Methods of analysis vary from segmentation and targeting to testing; segmentation refers to the practice of dividing a particular population into groups or individuals, targeting involves activating a specific campaign action for a particular audience rather than the general public, and testing serves as an examination and evaluation of the effectiveness of a particular intervention.
The case studies in the book demonstrate a variety of techniques employed by both small and large parties in their analyses. In Australia, for instance, it is evident that smaller parties, such as the Greens, rely on segmentation processes, dividing voter data to create a selected group of voters or members with specific characteristics, without resorting to more complex techniques due to limited available resources. This mirrors the situation in the United Kingdom, where segmentation is employed to identify seats and targeted groups, reflecting the plurality voting system. Conversely, the United States relies on more complex analytical techniques, with the two major parties (Democratic and Republican) utilizing intricate forms of segmentation, targeting, and testing.
The book clarifies that data analysis processes in the other case studies can occur with varying degrees of complexity, whether internally by party members or clients, or externally by outside consultants. In Australia, segmentation is utilized with varying complexity depending on the party; for instance, the Labor Party is more advanced compared to others, similar to the situation in the United Kingdom and Canada. It is noted that a commonality across the four cases is the use of less complex forms of targeting and testing compared to the United States.
Technology in the Electoral Process
Technology encompasses all tools and systems used to collect, store, and analyze data, as well as data management platforms, analytical tools, and campaign management systems. Various techniques are employed with different functionalities for organizational and communicative purposes in each country studied. The book concludes that the United States is the most advanced regarding technology use, with a wide array of “software solutions,” showcasing significant innovation in campaign applications and websites.
In the other countries of the case studies, the level of technological advancement in managing the electoral process depends on the size of the political party. Larger parties invest in campaign technology by purchasing campaign database software from American companies and adapting these programs for their own purposes. In contrast, smaller parties develop their own systems based on open-source software, which tends to demonstrate lower functional performance, particularly given the limited financial resources available for creating and maintaining websites or for political advertising.
Additionally, beyond financial resource limitations, several regulatory factors play a role in the varying levels of technological advancement among political parties in the case studies. For instance, German parties exhibit a higher number of regional applications compared to others due to regulatory constraints. Furthermore, the structure and ideology of the parties impact technological advancement disparities, with some parties, such as the Labour Party in the United Kingdom and the Liberal Party in Canada, utilizing their websites to attract greater participation offline compared to their Conservative counterparts. Ultimately, the book concludes that technological advancement is limited across Australia, the United Kingdom, and Germany due to weak programming and the inability of parties to invest in technology.
The Role of Individuals in Elections
The book examines the role of individuals who gather, analyze, and utilize data in electoral campaigns. These individuals include data analysts, campaign managers, political consultants, and campaign team members. It highlights the skills and expertise required to succeed in this field. Furthermore, the book provides an explanation for the variations in data usage among different parties, depending on the nature of each country, and focuses on the systemic, organizational, and ideological factors that influence how data is employed.
The case studies in the book reveal that the United States relies heavily on professional practices in its electoral activities by employing numerous staff and external actors. A wide range of specialized expertise is utilized for data collection, analysis, and technology. In contrast, it is rare for political parties in the other case studies to hire a large number of employees or to depend on paid external expertise. Instead, they rely on grassroots activists for various tasks, with more centralized operations in the United Kingdom and a more decentralized workforce in Canada.
While the book argues that data-driven campaigning (DDC) is often portrayed as a threat to democracy associated with certain practices more common in the United States, the situation differs across the case studies based on the practices of political parties in the five advanced democracies. DDC is not only unified across these cases; the data collected, analyzed, and disseminated also varies among political parties.
In conclusion, the book asserts that data-driven electoral campaigns represent a complex and diverse phenomenon that varies among different countries and their party systems. It emphasizes the importance of understanding the different contexts in which data is used to gain a deeper understanding of its impact on democracy. Acknowledging the diversity in data usage, the book illustrates that the application of data in electoral campaigns can differ significantly depending on the case. Additionally, it discusses the ethical and organizational challenges related to data privacy and its implications for democracy, as well as the technological advancements that contribute to changing the ways campaigns are organized and executed. Furthermore, it highlights the critical role of individuals and the expertise required to manage data-driven campaigns.
Although the book addresses ethical challenges, it does not provide a thorough analysis of the ethical consequences of using data in electoral campaigns and its impact on individuals’ privacy. Additionally, regarding the application of theories to reality, some readers may find the transition from theoretical frameworks to practical application to be less seamless, particularly in light of the imbalances among the countries studied. While the book offers a comparison of five countries, the focus is not evenly balanced, with some nations receiving more detailed coverage than others.
Source:
Dommett, K., Kefford, G., & Kruschinski, S. (2024). Data-Driven Campaigning and Political Parties: Five Advanced Democracies Compared. Oxford University Press.