On August 9, 2024, the Islamic State’s Mozambique Province was involved in the kidnapping of about 70 fishermen who were fishing on three boats near the island of Ilha Quirimbas off Macomia in the Cabo Delgado region in the northern part of the country. They were released after three days, according to a local newspaper, without any clarification on whether the group received a ransom.
This escalation is part of a new tactic adopted by ISIS to strengthen its jihadist influence in northern Mozambique. This comes in response to the growing regional efforts to combat terrorism, led by Rwandan forces alongside the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM). This raises concerns about the expansion of terrorism in the southeastern African region, threatening regional security and stability.
Key Indicators
The terrorist operation carried out by ISIS reveals several key indicators about the complex operational environment in northern Mozambique at this time:
Escalation of ISIS Attacks: Estimates indicate that ISIS attacks have become more violent in 2024, with the group involved in more than 50 terrorist attacks in Cabo Delgado, including kidnappings. For example, ISIS kidnapped about 70 children in July 2024 and attacked Mozambican forces and their regional partners in various areas, launching about 35 terrorist attacks in February 2024 in places like Muidumbe and Macomia in the north. The recent attack indicates ISIS’s continued policy of strengthening its presence in the region.
Adoption of New Tactics by ISIS Against Civilians: While international reports have noted that the group focuses on targeting security and military forces in northern Mozambique, it seems that ISIS has recently adopted a different tactic by attacking civilians. Previously, the group avoided conflict with local populations, aiming to establish friendly relations with local communities to win hearts and minds, thereby enhancing its presence and ensuring a supply of essential goods by land and sea.
Confirmation of ISIS’s Persistence: The group appears to be sending a message to the government of Mozambique and the international community that it will continue its escalation and attacks in the north and will not retreat from targeting the Mozambican army and regional forces, particularly Rwandan and SAMIM forces, in an attempt to pressure them to withdraw from the north, similar to the defeat suffered by Russian Wagner forces there in 2019.
Threatening Local Populations to Discourage Cooperation with Authorities: By targeting civilians, ISIS seeks to intimidate local communities from cooperating with security and military forces and their regional partners against ISIS elements. This could undermine ISIS’s recent attempts to establish friendly relations with local populations and might lead to armed confrontations between ISIS and local village groups or self-defense groups.
Targeting Foreign Investments: ISIS attacks near areas rich in natural gas, especially in Palma in northern Mozambique, pose a critical threat to international companies and their investments, which exceed $20 billion. This serves ISIS’s narrative of boosting its international reputation and influence in Africa and globally, potentially leading to the flight of foreign investments from the region, thereby allowing ISIS to seize resources and wealth. This could support its strategy and enhance its self-funding for continued operations in Mozambique and neighboring African regions.
A Murky Future
The escalation of ISIS’s terrorist activity in northern Mozambique carries a number of potential implications on local, regional, and international levels:
Increased Hostility with Local Populations: The shift in ISIS tactics to target local villagers in northern Mozambique is likely to intensify hostility and hatred from local communities towards ISIS, potentially driving the Mozambican government to expand the influence of self-defense groups to counter ISIS attacks, along with increasing cooperation with government security forces and their partners in pursuing ISIS elements in the northern region.
Continuous Waves of Internal Displacement: The escalating terrorist activity by ISIS in various areas of northern Mozambique is pushing many families to flee from violence and conflict, which could exacerbate the humanitarian situation in the region. According to the UN Migration Agency, there has been significant displacement in the area over the past few months, with around 100,000 people displaced between February and March 2024 due to violence, killing, and looting.
Negative Impact on Mozambique’s Relationship with Regional Military Forces: ISIS seems to be undermining the positive perception of local populations in northern Mozambique towards Rwandan forces and SAMIM due to their recent successes in countering ISIS threats. This could result in local populations rejecting the presence of these forces and demanding their withdrawal from Mozambican territory, especially in light of ISIS’s continued escalation of attacks in the region. ISIS aims to control the area’s lands and resources, as well as the strategic maritime space overlooking the Indian Ocean and the strategic Mozambique Channel.
Despite this, the coming period might witness negotiations between the Mozambican government and both Rwandan forces and the SAMIM mission under the Southern African Development Community (SADC) to extend their mandate and maintain their military presence in northern Mozambique. This is to cooperate in eliminating the ongoing threats posed by ISIS since 2017 in the region, which may receive international support, including logistical and financial aid to the Mozambican army, due to concerns about vital international interests, including investment projects in the gas sector.
Expansion of ISIS Threats to Neighboring Countries: ISIS is likely to intensify its terrorist operations within Mozambique and extend its activities to neighboring countries, particularly Tanzania, including its territorial waters. This could contribute to growing regional threats, possibly leading to increased military operations by Rwandan forces and SAMIM against ISIS in northern Mozambique, with potential reliance on these forces in neighboring countries if ISIS activity escalates there.
Threat to Regional Maritime Security: The targeting of the three boats off the coast of Cabo Delgado in northern Mozambique by ISIS could be a warning sign for regional maritime security, with the possibility of ISIS activity extending to the Indian Ocean, including threatening the Mozambique Channel, one of the most important international trade routes. Approximately 30% of the world’s shipping traffic passes through this channel, according to international estimates. This poses a threat to international trade due to the increase in piracy operations, which might lead to actions taken by active international powers aiming to protect foreign investments and ensure maritime navigation security in the strategic Mozambique Channel.
Increasing International Attention on Mozambique: The growing concern of active powers regarding the escalation of ISIS activity in northern Mozambique may be exploited to justify their involvement in the region under the pretext of combating terrorism and containing the risks and threats posed by ISIS elements in the area, including protecting regional maritime security off the coast of Mozambique and preventing the potential control of ISIS over the strategically important Mozambique Channel, which is becoming an alternative route for international trade, particularly in light of current regional tensions in the Red Sea area and the resulting threats to commercial ships passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea.
In conclusion, it is unlikely that ISIS’s influence in northern Mozambique will diminish, at least in the short term. ISIS still possesses the capabilities to carry out numerous terrorist attacks in the region and to cope with regional and international pressures. ISIS may extend its activities to the vital maritime domain off the coast of Cabo Delgado, threatening regional maritime security. This could pave the way for various international players to engage in northern Mozambique under the guise of combating ISIS elements, potentially increasing militarization in the region, making Mozambique a battleground for international and regional conflict with ISIS on one hand, and a field for international competition over the oil and gas resources in Cabo Delgado on the other, thereby threatening regional security in the near future.
