The American strategy in the Middle East, both before and after October 7th, has been characterized by a political deception – simultaneously offering unwavering and unconditional support for Israel while publicly advocating for restraint. This facade has crumbled, however, following Washington’s euphoric response to Israel’s actions in September 17th. The targeted killings of hundreds in Lebanon through pager and radio detonations, the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut’s southern suburbs, and Israel’s sustained attacks on Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, Gaza, the West Bank, have emboldened voices in Washington urging the White House to seize a 50-year opportunity to clip Iran’s wings, as reported by CNN.
A notable shift occurred last Tuesday when Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Advisor, rejected a request from Tel Aviv to exercise restraint, mere hours after an Iranian missile attack on Israel. Since then, the US has spoken of “consequences” that Iran must face for its attack with 200 ballistic missiles against Israel. Ironically, American officials have also called for a “coordinated” Israeli response with the US. Instead of adopting a diplomatic approach or calling for an end to the cycle of attacks and counter-attacks, the US administration has openly encouraged Israel to retaliate and seek revenge against Iran. The only limit, it seems, is targeting Iranian nuclear facilities. However, American media outlets have confirmed that Iranian oil and gas fields, vital economic interests, and even high-ranking Iranian figures are within the scope of potential Israeli attacks. Adding to the tensions, the US President has publicly threatened to strike Iranian oil facilities, instantly driving up oil prices by 4%. This indicates a shift toward a new set of American calculations and equations, suggesting that Washington, in collaboration with Tel Aviv, is poised to “re-engineer the Middle East” to serve their interests by containing Iran and resistance groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Palestine. What are these new equations that will shape US policy in the coming days? To what extent can Washington impose these equations on the interests of other regional and international powers in the region?
Firstly: Resurrecting American “Power Diplomacy”
Over the past years, the image of American “power diplomacy” has waned in the Arab world, the Middle East, and globally. This decline is exemplified by the US’s inability to convince Israel or Hamas to accept cease-fire proposals since the end of the truce between Israel and Hamas in December 1st. The same pattern repeated itself when the US was compelled to sign an agreement with the Iraqi government to end its military presence in Iraq by the end of 2026. However, Washington now believes that what it calls “Israeli superiority” with US support can restore the strength of American diplomacy. Some had perceived that small drones in the possession of resistance forces could diminish the prestige and power of the US in the Red Sea. This, in turn, led to a decline or erosion of the notion of American “power diplomacy”. Some in Washington now claim that the opportunity is ripe to restore American “power diplomacy,” which has “eroded” considerably in the past two decades. They argue that the unfolding events in the Middle East favor US presence, momentum, and even pressure to advance the interests of the US and its ally, Israel, in the region.
Secondly: Turning Back to the Middle East
Since 2010, the principle of “pivoting to the East” has prevailed, which argued that the Middle East had become a burden on the US. Driven by the growing military and economic power of China, the US, starting with the administration of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, began shifting some of its military assets from the Middle East to South Asia and Southeast Asia. However, the events of the past two weeks have painted a new American equation from Washington’s perspective, suggesting that it is capable of reaping “all the benefits” in the Middle East without any “costs.”
Thirdly: The Axis of Political Interactions
Washington believes that the ongoing challenges in the Middle East have presented it with “unprecedented opportunities” to be the sole “axis of interactions” politically, militarily, and intelligence-wise. This is achieved through its unwavering support for Israel and conveying a message to “Moscow and Beijing” that the Middle East revolves around Washington. From the White House’s perspective, the US has become the “decision-maker” influencing all paths in the Middle East.
Fourthly: Marketing American Weapons
The narrative dominating the discourse of American officials and media since September 17th focuses on the “accuracy and power of American weapons.” Statements affirm that the munitions and aircraft used in all Israeli attacks on Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria, capable of reaching any location in the Middle East, are “made in America” and not Israeli. This seeks to create a “glowing image” of American military technology. Even after the Iranian missile attack on Israel, the US attempted to draw a comparison between the “explosive power” of Iranian missiles and the “explosive power” of American munitions and bombs weighing around a thousand kilograms, the type used by Israel to assassinate Hassan Nasrallah in the southern suburbs. Some, however, perceive this as misleading, as those targeted by Israel, particularly in Lebanon and Yemen, lack robust air defenses, explaining the presence of aircraft like the F-16 in Lebanese airspace. However, these same planes have been shot down repeatedly in Ukraine since Kyiv received them at the beginning of last summer.
Fifthly: Redeploying American Forces
The US views the ongoing recalculations in the Middle East as a factor that will aid in the “redeployment” of approximately 42,000 American troops in the region. This ensures that the US maintains its interests through “American prestige and deterrence,” not through the number of soldiers and equipment. This allows Washington to utilize these military assets in other regions, such as Eastern Europe against Russia or South Asia and Southeast Asia against China, without affecting its interests in the Middle East.
Sixthly: Intelligence as the “Hard Number”
Intelligence is the “hard number” in all battles between Israel, the US, and their Western allies on one side, and Iran and its regional supporters on the other. In recent weeks, Washington has emphasized a message that the intelligence provided by the US to its allies, primarily Israel, is an invaluable “treasure” that no other power in the world can provide. It is well-known that the US Delta Force is present in Israel, supplying Tel Aviv with a great deal of accurate information. From the perspective of American institutions, this benefits the US as it becomes the “intelligence destination” sought by the world, strengthening its intelligence and information partnerships with countries in the region and globally, similar to the “Five Eyes model,” which includes the US, Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
Seventhly: A Message to Allies
American statements and positions following a string of recent Israeli successes do not hide Washington’s “joy” at Israel’s achievements. Indeed, the US’s opponents and its friends attribute all Israeli successes to American political, military, and intelligence support. They argue that Israel would not have achieved all this without unconditional and unwavering American support for the pager and radio detonations, the elimination of all top leaders of Hezbollah, and American support for all Israeli attacks on Yemen. Washington has also directly participated in countering Iranian missiles. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris even held a National Security Council meeting during Iran’s missile launch against Israel. The US is attempting to capitalize on this situation by telling its allies in the Arab world and the Middle East that it remains the “trusted partner and ally” after a decline in trust in partnerships with Washington in the last decade. Many Arab countries and Iran have moved toward building strategic relationships with both Russia and China.
Eighthly: Unipolar Hegemony
The most crucial equation that Washington is trying to solidify for its strategic rivals, “Russia and China,” is its confirmation of its international dominance and its ability to engage in strategic competition with Moscow and Beijing. The US believes that its support for Israel and its dominance over the Middle East guarantee the continuation of what President Biden calls the “rules-based order,” established in 1945 with the creation of Israel in May 1948. This political and economic system ensures that the US remains at the apex of global leadership.
It is clear that the US sees the current wars in the Middle East as an “opportunity” to regain its “standing,” which has significantly declined on all levels in the past two decades. However, on the other hand, the White House should wait some time before judging what is happening in the Middle East. It is not possible to accept that Washington’s ally, “Israel,” has achieved everything. Prior to September 17th, strategic failure was the only certain factor in all of Washington and Tel Aviv’s plans and actions.
