In a new cycle of escalating security threats in the eastern arc of the African continent and its adjacent southern regions, the dynamics of local and regional conflicts intertwine, rendering these nations the most volatile militarily and the most exploitable economically for resource plundering.
In this context, regional roles overlap—both negatively and positively—depending on each case. Meanwhile, the African Union (AU), its Peace and Security Council, and sub-regional African organizations appear powerless to contain such conflicts. International roles, on the other hand, intersect under the umbrella of fierce global competition over the future influence of international actors amid the declining stable hegemony of the United States.
Here, we examine cases of entangled conflicts in several African nations and regions, their driving factors, the nature of local and regional actors, and potential scenarios for the evolution of these conflicts.
Conflict Dynamics
1. Eastern Congo
The conflict in eastern Congo traces back a century, with the international actor—Belgium—being the primary factor in its eruption. The Belgians engineered internal interactions among local communities in eastern Congo, Rwanda, and Burundi before borders were demarcated in the region. In 1925, they supported the Tutsi tribe as rulers of these areas—a tribe with a historically more recent presence compared to the older Hutu tribe. The Tutsi migrated from Ethiopia, while the Hutu came from Chad.
The economic activities of the two tribes shaped their class positions based on economic returns and added value. The Tutsi rose economically and socially due to their reliance on cattle trade, while the Hutu practiced agriculture. The surplus value of each activity crystallized social and class hierarchies, placing the Tutsi above the Hutu, who violently rejected this arrangement in the 1950s.
As Africans gained independence in the 1960s and 1970s, the conflict factors between the Tutsi and Hutu spread across three nations: Rwanda, Burundi, and eastern Congo. With the rising value of African resources and advanced technological exploration (particularly 3D mineral prospecting), eastern Congo’s economic significance grew for multinational corporations. The region produces diamonds, copper, and coltan—essential for electric vehicle components and electronic chips.
2. South Sudan
Ugandan troops are currently deployed in South Sudan to prevent political tensions from escalating into military conflict, avoiding a repeat of the 2013–2015 civil war. Recent airstrikes have targeted opponents of President Salva Kiir in the Nasir area, according to local accounts.
Military escalation recently began with an attack by Vice President Riek Machar’s White Army militia on a People’s Army base in Nasir. This development signals cracks in the 2018 peace agreement (the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan), which calmed tensions between Kiir and Machar by forming a transitional unity government in 2019 (delayed until February 2020). Kiir became transitional president, while Machar assumed the role of first vice president.
Both sides extended the transitional period (originally set to end in February 2020), and presidential elections have been postponed multiple times due to political tensions. Recently, Kiir reshuffled the government with loyalists, violating the peace agreement: he dismissed Machar’s wife as defense minister, the central bank governor, and later the oil minister (Kang Chol) over corruption allegations. He also placed senior military officials allied with Machar under house arrest and briefly detained Stephen Par Kuol, the minister overseeing peace efforts and a key negotiator of the 2018 agreement.
3. Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict
Historically, Ethiopia-Eritrea relations have seen dramatic alliances and shifts. They fought a regional war in the early 2000s over border disputes but later allied in Ethiopia’s Tigray civil war. Currently, relations are hostile, reaching a critical juncture due to two factors: Ethiopia’s Red Sea ambitions and the cross-border dynamics of Tigray (spanning Eritrea and Ethiopia).
A crisis of trust has escalated in Tigray, with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) accusing factions of foreign allegiance (i.e., Eritrea). Former Ethiopian Chief of Staff General Tsadkan warned that internal divisions in Tigray could complicate Ethiopia-Eritrea relations, alleging that some TPLF leaders seek an alliance with Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki despite risks. Meanwhile, Addis Ababa is accused of infiltrating the TPLF and undermining the 2022 Pretoria Agreement (signed after Ethiopia’s two-year civil war, 2020–2022).
Regarding Ethiopia’s Red Sea ambitions and quest for a naval base, Asmara views this as an existential threat, given Ethiopia’s historical claims on Eritrean land and its past annexation attempts (Eritrea gained independence in 1993). An armed Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict could trigger a regional war, potentially altering East Africa’s borders[1].
Intertwined Local and Regional Roles
Angola plays a key role in eastern Congo’s ongoing conflict, stemming from its own 25-year civil war (which killed 500,000 and displaced a million). Post-colonial liberation movements split along tribal/ethnic lines in the mid-20th century, exacerbated by Cold War rivalries. The Soviet-backed People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) drew support from the Mbundu people and multiracial intellectuals, while the U.S.-backed National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) represented the Ovimbundu (a third of Angola’s population)[2].
Uganda’s involvement varies in eastern Congo and South Sudan. Angola currently leads mediation efforts, hosting March 2025 talks between Rwanda-backed M23 (a Tutsi-aligned group that recently seized key eastern Congo cities) and the Congolese government. Meanwhile, Ugandan troops in South Sudan protect Kiir from internal threats that could reignite civil war (like the 2013 conflict).
Ethiopia also engages in South Sudan via peacekeeping and economic integration (e.g., a May 2023 road agreement allowing South Sudanese oil exports via Kenya and Ethiopia, bypassing Port Sudan, which faces disruptions due to Sudan’s war).
Recently, Qatar and the UAE have emerged as mediators—Qatar hosting Rwanda-Congo talks to ease eastern Congo tensions, and the UAE safeguarding investments in South Sudan.
Potential Conflict Scenarios
- Ethiopia-Eritrea: War seems likely if Ethiopia, amid internal Amhara tensions, engineers a Tigray alliance against Eritrea-backed factions.
- South Sudan: Ugandan troops may curb large-scale conflict between Kiir and Machar, given the Dinka tribe’s influence and regional/international stakes in preventing another civil war.
- Eastern Congo: Qatari mediation may de-escalate tensions but won’t guarantee lasting peace, given the conflict’s complexity and actors profiting from the region’s resource chaos.
[2] Franz-Wilhelm Heimer, The Decolonization Conflict in Angola, 1974–76: An essay in political sociology, Geneva, 1979.
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