Dual Responses of Southern Countries to Address the Disruption of the International Order

The current international system is strongly moving towards fragmentation and division, with the escalation of geopolitical disturbances and conflicts, particularly the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and their repercussions on the global economy, the trade war between the United States and China, as well as the International Monetary Fund’s projections of a 5% decline in global economic growth, rising inflation, and increased poverty and social marginalization, especially in the global South.

In light of these turbulent global contexts, a dual strategy emerges for Southern countries, taking two main forms: one political, characterized by adopting a policy of multiple alliances, and the other economic, aimed at mitigating risks. This strategy seeks to enhance the proximity of Southern countries to the main poles of the global system while simultaneously liberating themselves from the ideological constraints of the past and boosting economic cooperation among Southern countries themselves.

In this regard, a research paper published by the French Institute of International Relations titled “Multi-Alignment and De-Risking: Global South Responses to World Fragmentation” analyzes this dual strategy, defining the framework of the Global South’s response to world division, discussing forms of risk mitigation in the Global South, and enhancing cooperation among Southern countries. Finally, the research paper proposes potential future scenarios for reducing risks in Global South countries.

Multiple Alliances:

Recently, Southern countries have intensified their efforts to impose real reforms on the global system to make it fairer and more just amid increasing economic, social, and climate crises. The COVID-19 pandemic has also generated a lot of frustration and anger among Global South countries regarding their access to vaccines and prioritization by developed countries. Furthermore, the war in Ukraine exacerbated the economic and financial difficulties in the South due to rising oil prices and commodity prices, leading to increased financial hardships in Southern countries and the emergence of a new debt crisis.

In response, the “multiple alliances” strategy has emerged as one of the main developments in the relationship between Global South countries and the poles of the global system. This strategy aims to improve the negotiating positions of Southern countries and better defend their interests through a network of multiple alliances with different international poles.

This strategy intersects with the non-alignment policy that prevailed during the bipolarity era when newly independent Southern countries chose not to align with one of the Cold War poles while striving to exert pressure to prevent the world from sliding into a new global conflict. However, the current global context is fundamentally different from both the Cold War era and the era of American hegemony after the fall of the Soviet Union. The current global system is moving towards multipolarity with the emergence of several new rising powers, such as China, India, Brazil, Russia, and South Africa, which later formed the BRICS group.

In this new context, the multi-alignment strategy adopted by some Global South forces is expected to evolve towards a multipolar world. This alliance-based strategy differs fundamentally from the non-alignment strategy in that it does not rely on ideological choices. Rather, it is a practical and realistic strategy followed by many Global South countries to defend their interests and protect themselves from the major threats facing the world today.

Implementing this strategy requires key conditions not available to many Global South countries, the most notable being the need for a geostrategic, financial, or economic advantage or vital natural resources in the countries seeking to apply the “multiple alliances” strategy, which would help them resist pressures from major powers and dissatisfaction from some of their former allies. Additionally, this strategy needs significant political stability in Southern countries to ensure the continuity of their geostrategic choices. Brazil’s case is often cited in this context, with the reelection of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2022, which led to strategic choices drastically different from those of his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro.

The Case of India:

Many researchers have studied the evolution of positions of some Southern countries in a multipolar world and explained this new strategy of strengthening alliances. In an article titled “Competitive Advantages: India’s Opportunity as a Major Power,” former Indian Foreign Minister and ambassador to China and the US, Nirupama Rao, highlighted New Delhi’s efforts to develop this strategy concerning the major powers and the multipolar world, especially with four key actors that influence its strategic choices.

India faces significant challenges in its relationship with China, especially due to border disputes that have led to military confrontations and considerable tensions between the two countries. However, these conflicts have not pushed India to sever its trade relations with China, which remains its main trading partner. Furthermore, New Delhi has continued to be a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, dominated by Beijing.

India’s second main partner is the West, particularly France and the United States, with cooperation encompassing economic fields, especially advanced technology, as well as security and defense. Washington and New Delhi share military and security information, and the United States helps train Indian military officials. India is also a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a coalition established by the United States in 2007 with Australia, Japan, and India to counter Chinese influence in the Asia-Pacific region.

Russia is the third actor in the Indian strategic equation. Despite India’s refusal to join the West in condemning Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine, it expressed its disapproval of this action and emphasized the importance of respecting national borders. At the same time, India continues to rely on Russia for military equipment purchases and depends on its influence to ease tensions with China. Finally, India aims to maintain its influence in Global South countries, particularly through active participation in the BRICS group, while continuing its engagement on the African continent.

Risk Mitigation:

The concept of “risk mitigation” is commonly used in the financial sector, where financial or banking institutions may decide to reduce or terminate their relationships with clients or categories of clients that pose significant risks. This concept has recently transitioned into geoeconomic analysis and has become a central issue in many countries, especially in Europe and the United States. The term was first used by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in March 2023 at a conference on EU-China relations, where she emphasized that the relationship between the two sides is crucial but characterized by significant imbalances in favor of Beijing. In this context, she called for implementing a “risk mitigation” strategy through diplomatic means. The US administration has also adopted this idea.

Thus, the “risk mitigation” strategy is a global response from the United States and European and Western countries to reduce strategic dependence on China, seeking to avoid the path of decoupling from China, which would pose significant challenges to Western countries. In this framework, the United States has set four strategic objectives: slowing China’s economic rise and maintaining the superiority of the US economy over the global economy; limiting China’s access to new technology; reducing China’s access to military technology while maintaining its reliance on the US in this area; and diminishing the strong dependence of Western countries on emerging nations affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in specific sectors, particularly pharmaceuticals, active ingredients, and various other medical products and equipment.

The risk mitigation strategy aims to protect the United States and build its competitiveness in vital sectors, especially digital technology and the green revolution. In the former, it specifically concerns sectors like artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and quantum computing. In the latter, it relates to key raw materials and technologies for the green transition, such as lithium, batteries, and other technologies associated with electric vehicles, in addition to other equipment like solar panels. It aims to ensure the independence of the American economy as it transitions towards a green economy while reducing its dependence on China.

However, this strategy faces numerous challenges, including the strong interconnection between the United States and China regarding various strategic products. Ultimately, this may jeopardize global value chains and accelerate the fragmentation of the global economy. Additionally, the global discourse on risk mitigation currently focuses on the strategies and policies implemented by the US and all Western countries while overlooking the dynamics underway in the Global South.

Future Scenarios:

The future of the global system and prospects for the coming world are central topics in public discussions among think tanks and institutions within the Global South. Several scenarios are considered in these discussions, the most prominent of which are:

Scenario One: Accelerating Fragmentation: This scenario is based on the hypothesis of greater intervention from geoeconomic powers and the impact of conflicts in the global system, thus intensifying tensions among major blocs. This scenario could accelerate the current fragmentation pace, with Global South countries enhancing their cooperation across various commercial, financial, and industrial domains. Ultimately, this might lead to a new state of global non-alignment. However, this scenario seems the least realistic for several reasons, particularly concerning the high level of economic and industrial interdependence and the desire of many Global South countries to adopt a less ideological and more pragmatic approach and to join the multi-alignment strategy.

Scenario Two: New Cooperation: This scenario requires substantial reform of the global system and reaching a global consensus on the need to build a multipolar world where Global South countries can play an important role. This scenario involves deep reforms of the political, economic, and financial institutions of the global system inherited from World War II to reflect the current power relations. This scenario, however, is resisted by Western nations.

Scenario Three: Maintaining the Status Quo: The final scenario assumes the continuation of the current unrest, which would lead to a considerable degree of uncertainty and instability in the global system while maintaining risk mitigation strategies and immediate responses to manage ongoing conflicts and prevent them from turning into open crises.

In conclusion, the risks of economic fragmentation have become more urgent with the evolution of conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, alongside the danger of their spread and intensification of trade wars. These global risks will mark a return to economic nationalism and sovereignty strategies that major global economic powers are implementing. However, Global South countries have recently been changing their strategies to adapt to the new world, politically through the multi-alignment strategy and economically by enhancing cooperation and exchanges between countries and adopting risk mitigation strategies. These strategies and responses may strengthen trends towards the fragmentation of the global system, unless new dynamics emerge that affirm cooperation and new multilateralism.

Source:
Hakim Ben Hammouda, “Multi-alignement et de-risking. Les réponses du Sud global à la fragmentation du monde,” Ifri, 2024.