The fall of the Assad regime and the subsequent increase in hopes for an end to the ongoing conflict in Syria, which has lasted for 14 years, has been met with great welcome by European governments. However, it has also sparked debate among other European countries regarding the return of Syrian refugees to their homeland. In a country like Germany, political opinions are divided between supporters and opponents of encouraging the voluntary return of refugees. Some political factions and interest groups emphasize the necessity of retaining certain categories of Syrian professionals in Germany, especially those working in jobs that face severe local labor shortages, such as medical professions. Although the number of Syrian doctors in Germany constitutes no more than 1% of the total number of doctors across the country, the influx of highly skilled Syrians into the healthcare system has helped bridge gaps in many medical specialties in certain German states. This implies that the return of some of them to their homeland will incur additional costs for the German healthcare system in the foreseeable future.
Relative Importance:
Since 2011, until the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Germany has been a primary destination for Syrian refugees. The number of registered Syrian refugees with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in Germany rose to about 716,700 by the end of 2024, a figure less than the total estimated number of Syrians in Germany, which is about one million according to the German government. Most of these individuals work in skilled, social, and various other professions in Germany, some of which, like medical professions, suffer from a noticeable shortage of labor and skills within the German labor market.
Syrian doctors represent a significant figure in the German healthcare system; by the end of 2024, there were over 6,000 Syrian doctors working in Germany, accounting for nearly 9.6% of the total number of foreign doctors in the country, who come from other nations like Turkey, Austria, Romania, and others, according to data from the Federal Chamber of Physicians in Germany. In addition to doctors, 2,157 other Syrians work in the health and nursing sector, further underscoring the importance of Syrians as a pillar for the stability of the German healthcare sector.
From a broader perspective, the German Economic Institute estimates that many Syrians work in five professional categories that face a clear shortage of skilled labor within Germany. These professions include dental assistants, health and nursing professionals, childcare and education, social work, and elderly care.
Diverse Perspectives:
So far, the position of German politicians on the return of Syrian refugees remains unresolved. Some right-wing political factions welcome the need for the German government to expedite programs aimed at supporting the return of Syrian refugees to their homeland, justifying this stance by asserting that Syria has become safer and more stable following the end of the conflict and violence that lasted over a decade. Some right-wing parties have even suggested providing generous financial incentives from the German government to encourage Syrians to return to Syria. Meanwhile, other political factions emphasize the importance of encouraging Syrians to stay in Germany to maintain stability in the local labor market, especially those working in jobs that suffer from labor shortages.
It is noteworthy that the German government implemented a program in 1989 named “Government-Assisted Repatriation,” which provides asylum seekers or those whose asylum requests have been rejected, along with other categories, with financial assistance to encourage them to return to their countries. This includes coverage of travel costs, along with incentives to help them reintegrate in their home countries after returning and facilitating their re-integration into local labor markets.
With the onset of the fall of Bashar’s regime, some members of the German government expressed doubts about the labor market’s ability to cope with the implications of the departure of Syrians, particularly those in medical professions, which is a pragmatic approach to deal with the issue of Syrian asylum in the country. This comes despite subsequent remarks from German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser acknowledging the need to reassess the residency of certain Syrian refugees in Germany. It seems that resolving these divergent positions on this issue will remain contingent on the parliamentary elections in February and the formation of a new German government.
On another note, some Syrians—not all of them, even among professionals—have personal, professional, and national incentives for voluntarily returning to Syria or even migrating to other countries. On a personal level, nostalgia for their homeland and the urgent desire for family reunification are primary motivators for professionals and other Syrians to return home. The challenges faced by some Syrians in Germany, such as difficulties in social and cultural integration, high work pressure, and rising living costs, further enhance the prospect of returning to Syria as an alternative option.
Moreover, the sense of national responsibility serves as a strong motivator for Syrians, as many Syrian experts and professionals (including doctors) aspire to participate in the reconstruction of their homeland and improve the level of services there. This sentiment intensifies as security and economic conditions in Syria improve. Stability within Syria would undoubtedly provide doctors with the opportunity to contribute to rebuilding the healthcare system, which suffers from a severe shortage of staff, and to leverage their expertise acquired in Germany to enhance the quality of healthcare.
Departure Scenarios:
Regarding the personal motivations for returning to Syria or government incentives to promote this option, the potential departure of Syrian doctors from Germany could have negative repercussions on the country’s healthcare system. As previously noted, Germany heavily relies on Syrian doctors in many hospitals and health centers, especially in areas that previously struggled with a shortage of medical staff before refugees arrived, such as Saxony-Anhalt. This has contributed to bridging significant gaps in various medical specialties like general medicine, surgery, internal medicine, and emergency medicine.
Thus, a scenario where Syrian doctors leave Germany could exacerbate the acute labor shortage in the healthcare sector, especially in some rural areas. It is estimated that around 200,000 vacant positions exist in the healthcare sector according to the German Ministry of Health.
To compensate for those leaving, hiring new foreign doctors will be necessary, who will indeed require further training and adaptation to integrate into the German healthcare system; this will demand additional time and funds. Hospitals may have to offer higher salaries to attract local doctors to work in areas experiencing acute shortages, which would raise the overall operational costs of some medical facilities in Germany.
Possible Courses of Action:
In response to the question of how the German government will handle the scenario of Syrian doctors leaving, we will discuss two main aspects: potential government measures to retain Syrian doctors within the German labor market and the general approach of the German government to address the physician shortage.
Voluntary return remains a possibility for a significant number of Syrian professionals (including doctors); therefore, it is likely that the German government will implement preventive measures to encourage highly skilled Syrian doctors to remain in Germany. This could involve simplifying residency procedures and improving working conditions for foreign doctors in general by increasing salaries and creating an attractive work environment for them, particularly in rural areas facing medical staff shortages.
Syrian doctors currently in Germany could serve as a link for cooperation in the healthcare sector between Germany and Syria in the near future, as the German government would encourage their efforts to exchange medical knowledge and experience with Syria and improve the capacities of the Syrian healthcare system through the transfer of the latest therapeutic and research methods. This exceptional approach may ensure the retention of Syrian doctors—and other professionals—within the German labor market, while simultaneously strengthening ties and fostering cooperation with their homeland.
To compensate for any potential shortage of doctors, the German government may sign additional agreements with countries that have a surplus of medical personnel to encourage them to work in Germany. Concurrently, the German government is looking to expand its local medical workforce in the long term by increasing the number of German students enrolling in medical schools and providing them with financial incentives to choose this field.
Investing in advanced technological solutions is another avenue that Germany seeks to expand upon to address the shortage of medical staff, particularly in rural areas. This includes utilizing automation, artificial intelligence, telemedicine, and other technologies that aid in analyzing medical data and monitoring health cases. In 2019, the German parliament passed the Digital Care Act (Digitale-Versorgung-Gesetz), which is expected to open promising prospects for the digital health market in Germany. Its value is projected to increase approximately two and a half times, from 9.8 billion euros in 2024 to 25.8 billion euros by 2033, according to estimations from Custom Market Insights.
In conclusion, the German healthcare system will face a significant challenge if Syrians or other high-skilled foreigners leave the German labor market; this reality may compel the German government to adopt a selective pragmatic policy regarding the issue of the return of Syrian refugees, which will to ensure public policies aimed at retaining high-skilled individuals from Syria and other foreign nationalities.
