On November 16, 2024, Libya witnessed a local electoral milestone, held in 58 municipalities across the country for the first time in a decade. The elections took place within complex political circumstances, amid ongoing divisions between two rival governments: one in the east led by Osama Hamad, affiliated with the House of Representatives, and the other in the west, the Government of National Unity led by Abdul Hamid Dbeibah. Nevertheless, the local elections relatively overcame the challenges posed by governmental division.
In fact, during its initial phase, it appeared that these elections could be a precursor to resolving the political conflict, reflecting a widespread hope among Libyans for a breakthrough in the political stalemate that has plagued the country for years. This made the holding of these elections an event imbued with significant political, social, and even economic implications.
Significance of the Elections:
The local elections in Libya carry various implications on multiple levels, including:
Continuity of Local Institutions: Despite sharp divisions at the central government level, the local elections demonstrated a Libyan desire to maintain the continuity of municipal institutions, which are closest to the citizens and most connected to providing essential services. This electoral event highlighted the municipalities’ role as a vital tool in mitigating the impact of political division, striving to uphold relative stability in local communities.
Reflections of Political Division on the Elections: The local elections exhibited a clear disparity in interest and participation between regions controlled by the two governments. In the western areas under Dbeibah’s government, the electoral process received greater attention and notable support from the government and media. In contrast, the eastern regions experienced clear impacts from political division in preparations for and execution of the elections.
Variances in Public Participation: Voter participation in these elections varied significantly; in some areas, the turn-out was high, reflecting citizens’ readiness to improve their local conditions through electing competent leaders. Conversely, in other regions, the turnout was low due to frustration over the lack of tangible results from previous elections amidst ongoing political divisiveness and a lack of basic services.
Political Messages Behind the Elections: Conducting local elections at this time sends multifaceted messages internally and externally. Domestically, it reflects the willingness of Libyan parties to showcase their ability to organize democratic processes despite ongoing division and complexity in the political landscape. Internationally, the Libyan authorities aim to demonstrate that the country can manage local elections, possibly indicating Libya’s readiness for national elections long delayed, provided suitable political and security conditions are met.
Possible Consequences:
There are potential repercussions from the local elections in Libya, including:
Strengthening Local Authorities’ Roles: The local elections will likely reinforce the role of municipalities as effective actors in providing services and managing local conditions, potentially increasing their independence amid the absence of a unified central authority. This shift could strengthen decentralization in Libya, which may present a practical solution to some of the country’s issues, though it could also deepen divisions if not managed wisely.
Possibility of Escalating Political Conflicts: Despite the local nature of the elections, they could trigger a new escalation in the conflict between the rival eastern and western governments. Just days after the election, Dbeibah’s government attempted to disrupt the administrative systems in municipalities by merging them in an effort to alter the administrative conditions before the final election results were announced.
Impact on Tribal and Regional Balances: In a country like Libya, where tribes and regions play a significant role in shaping the political landscape, local elections may lead to a reshaping of tribal and regional balances. As a result, these elections could provide means for broader representation of local communities in managing their affairs, enhancing a sense of participation and belonging.
Implications for External Positions: The local elections in Libya do not only affect the internal landscape; they also leave clear marks on the regional and international levels due to Libya’s geopolitical importance and its crisis’ connections to various regional and international balances. The results of local elections could influence the positions of international and regional powers regarding the Libyan crisis, with supportive countries viewing this as a positive step toward de-escalation and rebuilding trust among Libyans, while those involved in the conflict may use the results to bolster their influence through supporting local actors aligned with their agendas.
Opportunities and Challenges:
The local elections in Libya carry profound implications for the national political scene. Although they do not offer a definitive solution to the political crisis, they emphasize the importance of focusing on the local level as a pathway to rebuilding the state. However, the outcome of these elections largely depends on the willingness of political parties to overcome their differences and utilize this moment to construct a more stable and unified future.
Ultimately, while local elections are not a direct remedy for Libya’s larger political crisis, they reflect some opportunities and challenges faced by the country. On the opportunity front, elections could contribute to building bridges of trust among the various parties leading towards enhanced local stability, potentially paving the way for future national elections. On the challenge side, the persistent division complicates unified efforts to manage the electoral process nationally. Furthermore, the success of local elections in certain areas does not guarantee the same results in regions experiencing tensions or conflicts.
In conclusion, the local elections in Libya have significant implications for the current political situation. They demonstrate the continuity of local institutions despite division and highlight some parties’ desire to illustrate their ability to organize elections even amidst political complications. Nevertheless, ongoing political division casts a shadow over all attempts to restore stability and conduct comprehensive national elections.
