In June 2024, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its 55th annual report on the state of armaments, disarmament, and international security. The institute published a summary of the report titled “The Growing Role of Nuclear Weapons amid Deteriorating Geopolitical Relations.” The report highlights a notable increase in nuclear proliferation and readiness between 2023 and 2024, driven by worsening geopolitical relations among major nuclear powers. Additionally, most nuclear-armed countries continued to modernize their nuclear arsenals.
Indicators of Nuclear Armament
The global indicators of nuclear armament reveal the following:
Nuclear Stockpile Readiness: Of the estimated 12,121 nuclear warheads globally as of January 2024, about 9,585 are in military stockpiles for potential use. Approximately 3,904 of these warheads are deployed on missiles and aircraft—60 more than in January 2023. Around 2,100 warheads remain in a high state of operational readiness for ballistic missiles.
Inverse Equation: While the total number of global nuclear warheads continues to decline with the gradual dismantling of Cold War-era weapons, there is an annual increase in the number of operational nuclear warheads. SIPRI estimates that this trend will continue and possibly accelerate in the coming years, which is highly concerning according to the institute.
Nuclear Weapons’ Impact on International Relations: Wilfred Wan, Director of the Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme at SIPRI, noted the renewed significance of nuclear weapons in international relations, stating, “We have not seen nuclear weapons playing such a prominent role in international relations since the Cold War.” He expressed disbelief that only two years have passed since the leaders of the five major nuclear powers jointly affirmed that nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought.
China’s Entry into the Arms Race: For the first time, indicators show that China has achieved operational readiness. Estimates of China’s nuclear arsenal have increased from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 warheads in January 2024. This growth is expected to continue, with Beijing likely to expand its nuclear arsenal faster than any other nuclear power. By the end of this decade, China might possess intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) comparable to those of Russia or the United States, although its nuclear warhead stockpile will likely remain significantly smaller than those of Russia and the U.S.
Ongoing Proliferation: India, Pakistan, and North Korea are pursuing the capability to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles, a capability already possessed by Russia, France, the United Kingdom, the United States, and recently China. This could enable a rapid increase in deployed warheads.
Expansion of Operational Forces: There are indications of an expansion in nuclear operational formations across nearly all nuclear-armed countries. Many countries have plans or significant efforts to increase their nuclear forces. While operational forces were previously part of broader military formations, there is now a new phenomenon of independent nuclear formations.
Nuclear Maneuvers: The practice of conducting specific nuclear maneuvers is also a new phenomenon. Russia, for instance, conducted exercises involving tactical nuclear weapons near the Ukrainian border on May 21, 2024, and others on June 12, 2024, near NATO borders (Norway, Finland, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania).
Nuclear Sharing Arrangements: There has been a significant increase in discussions about nuclear sharing. In 2023, Russia deployed nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory. Although there is no concrete visual evidence of the actual deployment of warheads, the situation is a topic of discussion within NATO, along with a rising demand for hosting strategic nuclear weapons.
Decline in Transparency: Russia and the United States together hold about 90% of all nuclear weapons. The size of their military stockpiles of usable warheads remained relatively stable in 2023. Overall, transparency regarding the nuclear forces of both countries has decreased following the Russian-Ukrainian war. The British government announced that it would no longer publicly disclose the quantities of nuclear weapons, warheads, or deployed missiles.
Modernization of Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Most nuclear powers are focusing on modernizing their tactical (non-strategic) nuclear weapons. SIPRI, citing the Union of Concerned Scientists, highlighted that North Korea is now focusing on developing its stockpile of tactical nuclear weapons, raising concerns that it might intend to use these weapons “very early in a conflict.”
Regional Nuclear Proliferation
SIPRI’s report highlights several key nuclear powers worldwide:
European Countries: Although it is not believed that the United Kingdom increased its nuclear arsenal in 2023, it is expected to grow in the future due to the British government’s 2021 announcement to raise the cap from 225 to 260 warheads. France continued its development programs for third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) and a new air-launched cruise missile, while also modernizing and updating existing systems.
India and Pakistan: India slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal in 2023. Both India and Pakistan continued developing new types of nuclear delivery systems that year. While Pakistan remains the main focus of Indian nuclear deterrence, New Delhi appears increasingly focused on longer-range weapons, including nuclear ones, capable of reaching targets across China.
North Korea: Pyongyang continues to prioritize its military nuclear program as a core element of its national security strategy. It is currently assembling about 50 warheads and has enough fissile material to reach a total of 90 warheads—a significant increase from January 2023 estimates. Despite not conducting any nuclear tests in 2023, North Korea tested its first short-range ballistic missile from a rudimentary silo. It has also completed the development of at least two types of land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs) designed to deliver nuclear weapons.
Israel: According to SIPRI estimates, Israel, which does not publicly acknowledge its nuclear arsenal, is working on modernizing its nuclear stockpile and appears to be updating its plutonium production reactor in Dimona.
Decline in Nuclear Diplomacy
SIPRI’s report highlights a decline in nuclear diplomacy, detailed as follows:
United States and Russia: The report suggests that tensions over the wars in Ukraine and Gaza have weakened nuclear diplomacy, with significant setbacks for nuclear arms reduction and disarmament efforts. In February 2023, Russia announced it was suspending its participation in the New START Treaty, signed in 2010, which aimed at reducing strategic offensive arms. This treaty was the last remaining agreement to limit Russian and American nuclear weapons. In response, Washington also suspended its participation and data sharing under the treaty.
In November 2023, Russia withdrew its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, citing “imbalance” with the United States, which has failed to ratify the treaty since it was opened for signature in 1996. However, Moscow affirmed it would remain a signatory and continue participating in the work of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO).
United States and Iran: An informal agreement reached between the United States and Iran in June 2023 seemed to temporarily ease tensions, which had escalated due to Iranian military support for Russian forces in Ukraine. However, the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas on October 7 overturned the agreement, and the proxy attacks by Iran-backed groups on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria appear to have ended diplomatic efforts. The war also undermined efforts to involve Israel in a conference to establish a zone free of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East.
United States and China: On a more positive note, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing in June 2023 increased dialogue between the two countries on various issues, including arms control. Later in the year, both sides agreed to resume military communications. Despite assurances of no nuclear force use in relation to the Taiwan crisis, overall nuclear tension between Washington and Beijing remains, given the gradual growth of China’s nuclear arsenal and related technical aspects, representing a new phase in the ongoing arms race.
Global Stability at Risk
SIPRI’s report concludes that global security and stability are increasingly at risk, with the role of nuclear weapons growing amid deteriorating geopolitical relations. The impacts of the wars in Ukraine and Gaza are evident in nearly all aspects of issues related to armaments, disarmament, and international security according to the 2024 annual report. Beyond these two wars, which have dominated global reports and diplomatic efforts, armed conflicts were active in 50 other countries in 2023.
In light of these findings, Dan Smith, Director of SIPRI, has called on the major powers to exercise wisdom in a tense world, stating, “We are now in one of the most dangerous periods in human history, with numerous sources of instability: political rivalries, economic inequality, environmental disruption, and accelerated arms races. The abyss looms, and it is time for the major powers to step back and reflect simultaneously.”
Source: Role of nuclear weapons grows as geopolitical relations deteriorate—new SIPRI Yearbook out now, The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Stockholm, 17 June 2024.
