Tensions between Turkey and the United States are escalating regarding developments in northern and eastern Syria and the stance on Kurdish forces. While Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, on December 12, 2024, asserted Turkey’s commitment to eliminating the presence of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), Turkish officials have emphasized the need to cleanse northern Syria of Kurdish terrorist organizations in recent days. Conversely, Washington has taken several recent steps to signal to Ankara that it does not support the security arrangements that Turkey is formulating in northern Syria, including affirming the pivotal role of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in combating ISIS. Furthermore, on December 11, 2024, General Michael Eric Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), held a meeting in Syria with the SDF.
Open Dispute
The perspectives of both nations regarding the Syrian landscape differ significantly, culminating in an open dispute over the role and future of the SDF, which can be outlined as follows:
Diverging Statements About the Role of SDF in Syria: While President Erdoğan stated after Assad’s fall that Turkey would “crush terrorist organizations as soon as possible,” the Turkish foreign minister revealed in a televised interview on December 12, 2024, that Turkey’s strategic goal is to end the existence of the SDF, viewing them as facing two options: either disband or face elimination by force. He added that Turkey’s position on Kurdish organizations in Syria is an “existential” issue related to Turkish national security. In contrast, Washington has adopted a supportive stance towards SDF elements, notably highlighted by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his visit to Jordan on December 12, 2024. He emphasized the critical role of the SDF in preventing the resurgence of ISIS, describing this role as “vital” for Syria’s stability after years of conflict with the organization. Moreover, John Kirby, spokesperson for the White House, previously acknowledged Turkey’s legitimate concerns regarding counterterrorism but reaffirmed U.S. partnership with the SDF. While Turkey’s view focuses on the necessity of excluding the Kurdish self-administration from any future political arrangements in Syria, viewing it as an extension of the PKK, which Turkey designates as a terrorist organization, the U.S. perspective sees the Kurdish movement as a cornerstone in constructing Syria’s future post-Assad. The Kurdish forces are seen as strategically pivotal in combating terrorist organizations and control nearly a third of Syrian territory.
U.S. Condemnation of “Operation Dawn of Freedom”: The U.S. criticized the “Operation Dawn of Freedom” launched by Turkey-supported factions on November 30, 2024, against SDF forces in eastern Euphrates regions. Additionally, some American legislators expressed, on December 14, 2024, concerns regarding the potential expansion of Turkish attacks on SDF forces and urged limiting Turkish influence in Syria post-Assad. Notably, Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin warned on December 13, 2024, of the risks of diminishing SDF’s role. Meanwhile, Ankara rejected U.S. accusations regarding “Operation Dawn of Freedom,” asserting its right to defend its borders and protect its national security.
Continued U.S. Military Support for Syrian Kurds: The ongoing U.S. military support for YPG forces after Assad constitutes a significant point of contention between Washington and Ankara. While the latter views this support as primarily aimed at establishing a Kurdish state in the region, which it would be adversely affected by, some American local estimates have increasingly called for more direct U.S. military intervention to “undermine” Turkey-backed armed factions to ensure a substantial U.S. influence in Syria’s “day after.” There is also a widespread belief within American political circles that military support for the SDF is crucial for protecting broader U.S. interests in the Middle East.
Ankara’s Concerns Over Continued U.S. Engagement with Kurds: In the absence of a comprehensive vision regarding Syria’s future, alongside worries about the inability of Syrian opposition factions to maintain security and stability post-Assad, some American elites advocate for sustaining strategic relations with the SDF moving forward. This American approach remains a source of concern for Turkey and a potential flashpoint in Turkish-American relations, complicating their future interactions.
Possible Trajectories
Amidst Turkish-American tensions stemming from differing views on the Kurdish forces in northern Syria, several potential pathways for their relationship can be outlined:
Improvement of U.S.-Turkey Relations: With Trump being inaugurated president of the United States on January 20, 2025, there are increasing chances for improving Turkish-American relations, thus addressing the disputes concerning the Kurdish issue. This scenario appears considerably likely due to various factors, primarily the personal relationship between Erdoğan and Trump. This amicable relationship may help to bypass diplomatic norms to alleviate certain tensions between the two countries. Therefore, Erdoğan is likely to leverage his personal ties with Trump to neutralize the Kurdish issue, especially since Trump seems disinterested in relations with the Kurds, as reflected in his tweet on Truth Social on December 14, 2024, commenting on the situation in Syria: “Syria is in chaos, but it’s not our friend. The U.S. should have no involvement in what’s happening; this isn’t our battle; let things play out without our interference.”
Escalation of Tensions Between Turkey and the U.S.: Some trends suggest the likelihood of escalating tensions between Turkey and the United States due to the latter’s ongoing support for Kurdish forces in post-Assad Syria. The U.S. rejection of military operations by Turkey-backed factions in eastern Euphrates regions indicates a potential intensification of clashes between the two nations, bringing certain contentious issues back to the forefront. There is U.S. concern over the recent gains of Turkey-supported factions in predominantly Kurdish areas like Tal Rifaat, Manbij, and Deir ez-Zor. However, this scenario seems unlikely at present given Turkey’s need for U.S. support for the new Syrian administration that maintains strategic ties with Turkey. Additionally, from Ankara’s perspective, reducing tensions with Washington over the Kurdish issue precludes potential Israeli intervention, especially after calls from SDF leaders for Israeli support to counter Turkey and its affiliated factions. Concurrently, Washington recognizes Turkey’s central role in safeguarding American interests in the Middle East, particularly amidst the ongoing negative repercussions stemming from the Israeli war on Gaza and Lebanon.
Regulating Disputes Between the Two Countries: It is likely both nations will seek to manage their disputes regarding the Kurdish issue in Syria and prevent their relationship from reaching a breaking point. In this light, it is probable that Washington will continue to develop its relationships with the SDF, albeit in ways that do not conflict with Turkey’s interests. This suggests Washington may reconsider its strategy concerning Kurdish autonomy in exchange for the inclusion of Kurdish elements in building Syria’s future state, affirming their linguistic and cultural rights while enhancing their political presence in the Syrian equation, which could provide an opportunity to ease tensions with Turkey. Consequently, the Biden Administration may try to persuade Ankara to forgo hard power against the SDF in exchange for reducing American support for Syrian Kurdish groups and establishing rights for Syrian minorities in a new constitution, viewing this as a prerequisite for creating an inclusive and democratic Syrian state. However, despite the validity of this scenario, it faces two challenges: first, Ankara’s potential reluctance to respond positively to Biden’s soon-to-exit administration; second, the SDF’s insistence on self-administration, as articulated by SDF commander Mazloum Abdi in a December 13, 2024, interview with The Wall Street Journal, indicating that the SDF seeks to implement a decentralized administrative system allowing all Syrian regions to manage their affairs fairly and equitably, conflicting with Turkey’s vision for the Kurdish issue in Syria.
In conclusion, the SDF issue will pose a significant challenge in Turkish-American relations moving forward, particularly as current opportunities for a resolution appear limited, impacting other contentious issues between the two countries. Nevertheless, with Trump returning to power, a breakthrough on the Kurdish file—an issue that doesn’t attract significant attention from the incoming Republican administration—seems plausible.
