Pakistan is witnessing a steady increase in the frequency of terrorist operations recently. On November 21, 2024, at least 38 people were killed in an armed attack in the Kurram area of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in the northwest of the country. Armed militants targeted a convoy of passenger buses transporting Shia civilians traveling from Parachinar to Peshawar. On November 20, 2024, the military announced the death of 12 soldiers in a car bomb explosion near a military post in Bannu, adjacent to Afghanistan, amid sporadic attacks by the Pakistani Taliban, known as “Tehrik-i-Taliban,” as well as separatist groups in Balochistan.
Indicators of Escalation
Statistics indicate an increase in the rate of attacks hitting the country this year; according to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Pakistan has endured around 1,154 terrorist operations from the start of 2024 until November 19, 2024, compared to 920 terrorist operations in 2023. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, bordering Afghanistan, and Balochistan in the southwest are among the most volatile regions on the map of terrorist operations in Pakistan.
In response to this turbulent situation, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari emphasized on November 20, 2024, the necessity of eradicating terrorism from the country to achieve stability, while Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif described terrorism as Pakistan’s biggest challenge, pledging to crush extremist groups for the sake of peace and economic progress. This came during his announcement on November 19, 2024, of a new military campaign against terrorism, which included the pursuit of separatist groups in Balochistan.
Stimulating Contexts
There are various factors driving the upward trend of terrorism in Pakistan, which can be explained as follows:
Political Shift in Dealing with the Pakistani Taliban: The political changes that occurred after the ousting of Imran Khan as Prime Minister—following the Parliament’s vote of no confidence in April 2022—have altered the government’s methodology in dealing with the Pakistani Taliban. Under Khan’s rule, the Taliban signed a cessation of hostilities agreement with the government in November 2021, backed by the Afghan Taliban. However, they announced the cancellation of this agreement and a return to military escalation on November 28, 2022, due to military operations against its elements, with mutual accusations over violations of the ceasefire. This highlights the current Pakistani government’s strict stance against the spread of extremist groups, including expanding military operations against terrorists and separatists to undermine their capabilities rather than allowing political agreements to impose temporary periods of calm that may enhance the power of armed groups. Consequently, the Pakistani Taliban have intensified their terrorist operations since the ceasefire was terminated, particularly in areas where their elements are concentrated in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, pushing the government further, which is reflected in the rising violence.
Accusations of Kabul Supporting the Pakistani Taliban: The Islamabad government accuses the Afghan Taliban of providing support to the Pakistani Taliban, threatening its territory. The Chief of Army Staff, Asim Munir, has repeatedly warned the Kabul government against supporting the Pakistani Taliban to enhance their capabilities for attacking the state. Moreover, a UN report released in February 2024 noted that the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) receives direct funding from the Afghan Taliban, which has also allowed the provision of advanced weapons left behind by the U.S. after its withdrawal from Afghanistan, exacerbating the violence in Pakistan. In turn, the Afghan government denies these accusations.
Weak Military Arrangements on the Afghan Border: The deteriorating political relations between Kabul and the Pakistani government affect the level of security coordination and intelligence sharing between the two countries to secure the border. However, the unstable security situation in Afghanistan negatively impacts the region. The financial and logistical advancements of the ISIS Khorasan organization fuel disturbances and broaden the scope of fighting, while the political and security fluidity in Afghanistan has allowed al-Qaeda to increase its influence. In February 2024, the Security Council indicated that the organization had recently established eight training camps for extremist elements and is playing a significant role in enhancing the capabilities of the Pakistani Taliban to carry out more severe attacks by providing ideological support and training for carrying out suicide attacks.
Violent Escalation of Separatist Movements in Balochistan: Armed nationalist movements in Balochistan in southwest Pakistan are striving to establish an independent Baloch state from the central government in Islamabad to enhance the social and economic rights of the Baloch, who claim to be marginalized. Recently, violent attacks by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the Balochistan Liberation United Front (BLUF), among other armed separatist groups, have increased. These groups focus on targeting the state’s infrastructure and economic interests, especially projects in collaboration with China, believing that this partnership undermines their rights to the region and its resources. The Balochistan Liberation Army claimed responsibility for the attack that resulted in the deaths of Chinese nationals in the coastal city of Karachi on October 7, 2024. Additionally, the Interior Ministry reported on August 26, 2024, that at least 70 people were killed in sporadic attacks carried out by separatist groups against police stations, railroads, and buses in Balochistan.
Unresolved Sectarian Conflicts: The Kurram area in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has witnessed escalating conflicts between Sunni and Shia tribes in recent months due to disputes over land ownership. These conflicts have led to armed violence resulting in dozens of casualties. Notably, the recent attack on passenger buses carrying Shia civilians occurred just a week after the reopening of the main road in the area, which had been closed due to the armed conflict, highlighting the lax security measures in addressing the crisis, alongside political deficiencies.
Multiplicity of Terrorist Groups in Kashmir: The ongoing conflict between Pakistan and India over the sovereignty of the border region of Kashmir has deteriorated the security situation with a rise in sectarian discourse calling for armed alignment to fight the Indian government in defense of Muslim territories, which has reinforced the multiplicity of terrorist groups in the region and provided logistical support to the Pakistani terrorism network. Al-Qaeda’s branch in Kashmir is one of the most prominent extremist groups in the area, alongside the Jaish-e-Mohammed and the Jamaat-ud-Dawa.
Opportunities for Confrontation
Available confrontation opportunities could contribute to reducing violence in Pakistan, despite internal challenges, which can be discussed as follows:
Addressing Political Disputes with Neighboring Countries: Addressing Pakistan’s political disputes with India and Afghanistan poses more of a challenge than an opportunity. However, the need for regional stability can exceptionally influence consensus around the terrorism issue. Such a consensus, if achieved, would mitigate the intensity of extremist rhetoric that exploits international conflicts to serve the objectives of extremist and armed separatist groups.
Enhancing Oversight on Terror Financing Networks: Strengthening oversight frameworks on networks suspected of financing terrorism in Pakistan, alongside enhancing regional cooperation in this regard, would improve the chances of confronting armed violence in the region. It is noteworthy that the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) removed Pakistan from its gray list of countries suffering from inadequate oversight of money laundering and terrorism financing networks on its territory in October 2022.
Military and Intelligence Cooperation with Regional Allies: Military cooperation between Pakistan and its regional allies, particularly China, could relatively alleviate security shortcomings along the border with governments not aligned with Islamabad. Furthermore, defense cooperation between the Pakistani and Chinese governments would enhance Pakistan’s capabilities to combat terrorism. The Chinese and Pakistani armies are expected to conduct joint anti-terrorism military exercises termed “Warrior Eight” from late November 2024 to mid-December. Additionally, China could work to bridge differences between Pakistan and Afghanistan to bolster stability, benefiting its economic projects in the region, especially the Belt and Road Initiative.
Limits to Developing Ideological Programs to Combat Extremism: The Pakistani government needs to support programs targeting the ideological propositions of extremism while dismantling discourses that reinforce sectarian conflict, alongside the prompt political intervention to resolve land disputes among tribes to prevent increasing disturbances in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Allowing Space for Political Solutions to Separatist Crises: The Balochistan separation crisis needs to enhance the prospects for political negotiations to mitigate violence in the region, proposing diplomatic initiatives to persuade armed separatist movements to lay down their arms, along with improving living conditions for the region’s citizens. The National Director of the National Justice and Peace Commission of the Pakistani Catholic Bishops’ Conference, Bernard Emmanuel, stated on November 19, 2024, that the Christian community in Balochistan opposes the military campaign announced by Shehbaz Sharif’s government against separatists, urging the government to give a chance for political dialogue, fearing an escalation of violence in the region.
A Complex Scene
Pakistan is facing complex variables affecting the country’s security landscape, particularly the weak security measures along the Afghan border, which is already suffering from the growing capabilities of ISIS and al-Qaeda. Meanwhile, Islamabad is confronted with a severe crisis due to increasing violence from separatist groups in Balochistan with the strengthening of terrorist networks in Kashmir along the border with India, imposing a multi-front confrontation on the country.
