Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani conducted an unannounced visit to Turkey on November 1, 2024, where he met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The visit, which lasted a few hours, involved discussions on several common issues between Ankara and Baghdad, primarily focusing on strengthening bilateral ties. It also addressed the negative repercussions arising from the Israeli war in Gaza and Lebanon, which have impacted both countries. This marks the second visit by al-Sudani to Turkey since assuming office and comes less than two weeks after the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) attacked the headquarters of the Turkish defense industry company “TUSAŞ.”
Key Motivations
Several motivations underlie the Iraqi Prime Minister’s unannounced visit to Turkey at this time, the most significant of which are:
Expanding Security Cooperation Between Baghdad and Ankara: A considerable part of the visit is driven by a desire to broaden security cooperation, particularly regarding the eradication of the PKK’s presence in northern Iraq. This urgency follows the group’s involvement in a recent attack on “TUSAŞ” on October 23, 2024, prompting Turkey to intensify its military operations in northern Iraq. Consequently, the pursuit of PKK fighters, classified as terrorists by Turkey, dominated discussions between Erdoğan and al-Sudani, particularly amid the latter’s efforts to regulate Turkey’s current military interventions in response to the “TUSAŞ” attack, emphasizing the focus on PKK strongholds and preventing the escalation of confrontations within Iraq.
Coordinating Stances on Regional Escalation: After his visit to Turkey, the Iraqi Prime Minister highlighted the unified stand of Ankara and Baghdad regarding the Israeli war in Gaza and Lebanon, stating that Israeli actions would exacerbate regional tensions and threaten peace and stability. Both countries are closely monitoring the ongoing conflict, aiming to mitigate its fallout. While Turkey is wary of the repercussions of Israeli operations on its interests and influence, Iraq seeks to avoid getting drawn into the escalating regional conflict, especially as Iran-backed armed factions carry out attacks on Israel from its territory. This underscores the importance of al-Sudani and Erdoğan aligning their positions on these troubling developments.
Reinforcing Trade Partnership: The two countries aim to strengthen economic ties and enhance their trade partnership, particularly concerning the Development Corridor initiative. Baghdad hosted the second meeting of the quadrilateral ministerial council regarding this 12,000 km route from the Iraqi city of Basra to the Turkish border in late October 2024, just before al-Sudani’s trip to Turkey. The initiative has an estimated investment budget of approximately
The bilateral trade between Iraq and Turkey reached around 17 billion USD and is primarily aimed at facilitating the transportation of goods between Europe and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Consequently, economic discussions were among the most critical topics addressed by Erdogan and al-Sudani. Iraq is Turkey’s third-largest trading partner, following Italy and the United States, with bilateral trade reaching approximately 20 billion USD by the end of the first half of 2024.
Containing the Impact of Disputed Bilateral Issues: Baghdad seeks to manage the effects of contentious issues with Ankara, primarily the oil and water disputes. Official statistics indicate a halt in oil exports from the Kurdish region since March 2023 through the Turkish port of Ceyhan, significantly impacting potential revenues exceeding $15 billion. In this context, al-Sudani aims to leverage Turkey’s relationship with the Kurdistan region to forge mutual agreements between the regional government and the federal government that would allow for the resumption of oil exports via Turkey. Concurrently, the issue of water was also prominent during al-Sudani’s visit, urging Turkey to activate the principle of shared water quotas and to follow up on the execution of agreements signed between the two countries in the areas of water and agricultural land reclamation, ensuring Iraq receives its full share of water to address drought and climate change.
Key Implications
In light of the aforementioned factors, Iraqi Prime Minister al-Sudani’s visit to Turkey reflects several important implications, as outlined below:
Expanding Strategic Cooperation: Recent intensified Iraqi efforts to support Turkey against the PKK are evident in al-Sudani’s unannounced visit, indicating Iraq’s rejection of any terrorist attacks within Turkish territory, as manifested in Baghdad’s condemnation of the PKK’s “TUSAŞ” attack. Additionally, this visit reveals an agreement with Turkey to resolve security matters, including the Turkish military presence in northern Iraq and justifying the Turkish army’s operations against the PKK.
Stability of Political Relations Between the Two Countries: Al-Sudani’s second visit to Turkey suggests that relations between the two countries have become more stable, and mutual understanding is now a prominent theme as both sides seek to establish new, serious conditions and regulations that ensure stable and ongoing relations. This has been reflected in enhanced cooperation opportunities in joint projects, including the Development Corridor and combating terrorism, alongside gradual agreement to address contentious issues.
Mitigating Rising Domestic Pressures: The visit indicates Iraqi concerns about the repercussions of intermittent Israeli attacks on Iran-aligned Iraqi militia sites within Iraq, particularly as these militias remain intent on targeting Israeli objectives. Al-Sudani’s apprehensions about Iraq’s potential involvement in the ongoing Israeli war in Gaza and Lebanon are significant. This context may help explain the timing of the Prime Minister’s surprise visit to Turkey, aligning with al-Sudani’s efforts to bolster his government’s alliances against the pressures from Iran-aligned militias in Iraq, which create political embarrassment for his administration, thereby utilizing the partnership with Turkey for political support among Sunni blocs allied with Turkey.
In conclusion, al-Sudani’s visit to Turkey comes at a notably critical and pressured time, coinciding with escalating regional threats, particularly the Israeli war in Gaza and Lebanon, and its implications for Iraq’s stability. As a result, Iraq is expected to pivot significantly toward Turkey, its nearest geographical neighbor, which holds a greater capacity to provide political and security support for Iraq should threats escalate, along with Turkey’s priority in supporting and enhancing the Iraqi economy.
