In light of the recent escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, particularly following U.S. President Joe Biden’s approval for Kyiv to use long-range missiles to target deep within Russian territory, as well as the involvement of North Korean forces alongside Russian troops in the war, and the growing concerns regarding the potential negative repercussions of a return of Trump for Kyiv, the French newspaper “Le Monde” reported, citing informed sources, that some of Ukraine’s European allies are “secretly” discussing the idea of sending Western forces and defense companies to support Kyiv’s war efforts.
Contexts of the War
There are several motivations for Western powers to discuss sending European troops to Ukraine, outlined as follows:
Paris Revives the Idea of Sending Western Forces to Ukraine: The French proposal to send troops to support Ukraine is not new in the context of current tensions; President Emmanuel Macron had previously raised the idea during a meeting of Kyiv allies in Paris last February, which faced strong opposition from several European nations, particularly Germany. Despite Macron’s assurance of a European consensus against sending troops to participate in the war, he emphasized that no options are off the table to prevent a Russian victory in the conflict.
In this context, “Le Monde” reported on November 26, 2024, that this scenario remains under consideration and has gained noticeable momentum recently, particularly following British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to France during the 106th anniversary celebrations of the end of World War I. A British military source confirmed in statements to the newspaper that France and Britain are discussing the establishment of a group of allies in Europe focused on supporting Ukraine and maintaining European security.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian reiterated in a press statement on November 22, 2024, that “there are no red lines” when it comes to supporting Ukraine, suggesting the possibility of allowing Kyiv to launch French long-range missiles against Russia under the “principle of self-defense,” without clarifying whether French missiles had been previously used. When questioned about France’s readiness to participate in combat alongside Ukraine, he affirmed that all options are being considered, emphasizing that the advancement of the Russian army in Ukraine jeopardizes the entire European security landscape.
The Return of Donald Trump to the White House: European leaders are concerned about the potential foreign policy of a Trump administration towards Ukraine, with indicators suggesting a likely reduction in U.S. military support to Ukraine, which would limit Kyiv’s ability to continue the war and provide Russia with an impetus to implement its territorial ambitions and permanently occupy Ukraine.
Estimates suggest that the possibility of Trump mediating a peace agreement between Moscow and Kyiv raises concerns for the latter, with many analyses predicting that Ukraine may be compelled to cede some of its territory to Russia, without guaranteeing a permanent ceasefire but rather transforming the current conflict into a low-intensity war or a frozen conflict similar to the Donbas War along a 1,200 km front, while Russia continues missile strikes and drone attacks on Ukrainian civilians.
In this framework, leaders recognize the importance of preparing to lead a European coalition in Ukraine, disentangling from Washington in light of Trump’s return and attempting to replace U.S. aid with European assistance, despite the complexity of this endeavor regarding both hardware and the sending of troops and military contractors.
The Engagement of North Korean Soldiers in the Ukrainian War: Although Pyongyang has supported Moscow militarily since the war’s inception, evidenced by supplying Russia with approximately 16,000 shipping containers filled with ammunition in 2022, as well as backing it in international organizations and voting in its favor at the UN General Assembly and Security Council; it has recently adopted a different approach under the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty signed by Presidents Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un in June 2024, which included commitments to mutual defense and enhanced cooperation between the two countries.
In this context, North Korea has sent troops to support Russia on the combat fronts against Ukraine, with some intelligence sources indicating that around 11,000 North Korean soldiers have been deployed in the Kursk region of western Russia as part of an airborne unit and marine corps, with some already participating in the fighting.
Increasing Challenges
These Western moves involve several significant challenges:
Britain’s Rejection of the French Proposal to Support Ukraine: In response to Le Monde’s report, the United Kingdom announced that it will not send troops to support Ukraine at this time; British Foreign Secretary David Lammy confirmed that Britain is not currently considering sending troops to Ukraine and is committed to its long-standing stance of keeping its forces “out of the theater of war,” stating that the country is prepared to support Ukrainians only in terms of training. Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the report does not align with reality and faced widespread opposition in Western capitals.
Russia’s Warning of a Potential Third World War: Despite Russian warnings about the likelihood of a third world war if Ukraine is allowed to use long-range missiles against Russia, Kyiv’s action in deploying Storm Shadow missiles supplied by the UK against Russian targets prompted Moscow to respond by launching a new medium-range ballistic missile against Ukraine on November 21, 2024, just days after Russia officially updated its nuclear doctrine in response to increased Western intervention in Ukraine.
Putin threatened that Moscow “has the right” to strike any Western country supplying Kyiv with such weapons, pledging to continue using the new missile “in combat conditions,” which poses a threat to both Ukraine and the West. In this regard, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has entered a “critical phase,” and the gradual drift into a broader global conflict is imminent.
NATO Countries’ Reservations on Direct Escalation: While NATO confirmed its intention to limit Russian-hostile activities and counter its destabilizing capabilities towards NATO and its allies, it also affirmed its readiness to maintain channels of communication with Moscow to reduce risks and prevent direct escalation.
In conclusion, Le Monde’s report highlighted that the Élysée Palace and the French armed forces have not yet given an official green light for the deployment of traditional forces or private service providers to Ukraine. It is likely that Défense Conseil International (DCI), the main operator for the Ministry of Armed Forces overseeing the export contracts of French weapons and the transfer of relevant military knowledge, will continue training Ukrainian soldiers in Ukraine and may, if necessary, ensure the maintenance of military equipment sent to Kyiv.
