The cyber space has increasingly impacted national sovereignty and has reshaped concepts of security, power, conflict, and dominance, leading to changes in geostrategic thinking in the 21st century. This is primarily through the interaction between the strategic dimension and the geographical dimension, influencing a country’s foreign policy on one side and international politics on the other. This dynamic stresses the importance of seeking ways to provide resilience and adaptability in the context of a turbulent regional and international environment, either by strengthening national capacities or through regional and international cooperation to address new geostrategic challenges in the cyber domain, particularly amid the rising role of generative artificial intelligence and enhancing the digital economy in the region to deliver innovative solutions for achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals 2030.
This raises several questions: What is the impact of the cyber space on the geostrategic dimension of the Mediterranean region? What opportunities and challenges does it face? What is the future role of cyber space in promoting regional security? What are the prospects for cooperation in sustainable digital development? And what is the future impact of this on global digital cooperation?
Rising Trends of Cyber Space in Geostrategic Threats
The Mediterranean region is experiencing a growing wave of telecommunications and internet services, with penetration rates reaching 90.2% in Southern Europe compared to about 70% in North Africa, not to mention the substantial population of over 500 million across 24 countries. The Mediterranean region serves as a strategic link between three continents: Europe, Africa, and Asia, in terms of trade, cultural exchange, and international navigation, featuring crucial waterways such as the Suez Canal, the Bosphorus Strait, and the Strait of Gibraltar. The Mediterranean acts as a high-speed data highway through underwater cables, accounting for 95% of global communication traffic, thereby playing a vital role in the global digital economy.
In 2024, the Mediterranean region witnessed increasing trends regarding cyber space’s role in geostrategic threats, notably:
- The Southern Mediterranean faces mounting pressure on infrastructure due to rising penetration and usage, coupled with a lack of a cultural and social dimension in the transformation process. Consequently, there has been an increase in digital services that exceeds the capacity to absorb and adapt to associated risks, leading to heightened exposure to cyber threats, especially in South and East Mediterranean countries, with effects spilling over into the Northern Mediterranean.
- There is a trend toward leveraging the digital economy to drive digital development and transformation efforts aimed at increasing productivity, income levels, integrating marginalized communities, and utilizing big data in development, while seeking solutions to tackle economic inflation and rising unemployment and poverty rates, especially among youth, alongside efforts to enhance cybersecurity capacities in light of rising cyber-attacks and their economic impacts.
- Addressing the effects of geopolitical crises following the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukraine conflict, and the Gaza war on securing supply chains for food and technology products, along with the escalating tensions between China and Russia on one side and the US and its allies on the other, which influence patterns of conflict over cybersecurity, markets, wealth, and influence in emerging markets. There has also been a rise in attempts to interfere with European electoral systems by manipulating voter intent or undermining democratic systems and misleading public opinion, which serves to erode trust between society and the state, as well as in the political process.
- The growing role of active cyber diplomacy from the European Union in cooperation with the Southern Mediterranean to address rising cyber threats and build regional capacities, interlinked with other challenges such as illegal migration, organized crime, and human trafficking, which exploit cyber space for mobilization, organization, planning, and financing their activities.
- The risks posed by the rise of terrorist and extremist movements in attracting youth through digital platforms, especially those suffering from poverty, unemployment, and a lack of general knowledge and skills, making them vulnerable to recruitment in the Southern Mediterranean. Additionally, there are increasing risks of non-state actors using cryptocurrencies to evade sanctions and fund their activities or by leveraging them for conflicts, either through external state support or by developing their own capacities or acquiring them from the black market.
- The rising influence of digital platforms and major technology companies in conflicts and shaping local, regional, and global public opinion, which adds significant importance to data governance and combating misleading rumors, deepfakes, and the misuse of algorithms by tech companies that foster bias and violate freedom of opinion and expression.
- The escalating risk associated with non-state entities or state-sponsored groups in selling, disseminating, and utilizing advanced comprehensive spyware on millions of users, representing a growing threat to digital rights, state sovereignty, and law enforcement, exemplified by software such as the Israeli “Pegasus.”
- The impact of the Mediterranean region suffering from increasing military and security tensions on the security of digital transactions and the rising risks of undersea internet cables being severed or poorly maintained, especially in the Red Sea region, which affects the security of global data flow.
- The rising influence of social networks on youth in Southern countries encouraging them to migrate northward through illegal means, alongside their role in securing migration routes, coordinating, disguising, transferring funds, and ensnaring new victims, particularly from within Africa.
- The increasing risks associated with generative artificial intelligence violating human rights, personal data protection, and privacy by major tech companies, along with threats of job losses, which carry the potential for social unrest, especially in the Southern Mediterranean, amid youth unemployment and the widening gap between labor market demands and required skills.
Finally, there are the risks posed by the generational gap and differing visions and stances between Generation Z and the younger demographic versus the older generations, given disparities in digital skills, which places pressure on security, political, and legal institutions within the Mediterranean region.
Emerging Opportunities for Digital Cooperation in the Mediterranean to Address Cyber Challenges
There are numerous regional cooperation initiatives, both within the Mediterranean and in broader frameworks with the European Union, including the Barcelona Process, the Union for the Mediterranean, and cyber diplomacy programs toward the Southern Mediterranean. One significant project is the European “Global Gateway,” launched in 2021, aimed at raising $600 billion by 2027 in response to China’s digital Silk Road initiative, which seeks to increase investments in global infrastructure and promote democratic values, governance, transparency, green transitions, and clean energy through international cooperation.
In 2024, there has been increased European diplomatic activity with several states, including the Egyptian-European summit on March 17, 2024.
The Mediterranean region is witnessing strategic competition between China and the United States for control over digital economy revenues and digital markets amid the digital weakness faced by the region, which favors multinational tech companies, particularly American and Chinese ones. The region, especially Europe, is under strategic pressure to limit openness to China or partnership in the digital Silk Road in favor of an American development corridor, alongside American pressures on semiconductor exports to China to curb its advancements in artificial intelligence, which adds new dimensions to the necessity of repairing strategic imbalances in supply chains and reducing dependency on Taiwan, which dominates the digital chip industry. This scenario pushes for collaboration within the Mediterranean and Europe to advance in this industry to ensure supremacy in artificial intelligence, 5G networks, batteries, and electric vehicles, particularly since major powers or large tech companies associated with them currently dominate artificial intelligence technologies.
Europe generally enjoys advanced digital legislative frameworks that align with the nature of challenges and opportunities presented by the digital sphere, providing opportunities for cooperation with the Southern Mediterranean to address its cyber legislative gaps, such as digital governance of emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and digital assets, adopting the General Data Protection Regulation, and pushing international efforts to impose digital taxes, regulate digital services, and digital markets.
These European policies, aligned with the objectives of the Mediterranean region, aim to regulate the operations of major tech companies, protect market competition, prevent monopolies, and govern content on digital platforms. They seek to rectify the imbalances in the digital market structure, creating a fair environment for the emergence of new national companies on both national and regional levels, especially given the Mediterranean’s lack of ownership of digital platforms or social networks.
Moreover, adopting digital currencies is essential to mitigate the risks of relying on foreign payment applications, which are predominantly American or Chinese, contributing to enhancing cyber resilience in the Mediterranean region. This emphasizes the need to develop applications for cyber sovereignty and learn from European experiences.
Additionally, there is an opportunity to leverage the low labor costs in the Southern Mediterranean and its gateway to the African market by implementing joint development projects to localize tech industries in software or hardware. Furthermore, enhancing capacities in satellite technology to monitor illegal migration routes and establish early warning centers, along with expanding satellite internet services to alleviate pressure on internet cables and enhance flexibility in addressing cyber crises, are essential.
Cooperation in the digital transformation of public, financial, health, and educational services, alongside industry and agriculture, is crucial for optimal resource utilization in terms of water, soil, food, tackling climate change, and enhancing agricultural exports to Europe.
The collaboration among Mediterranean nations in combating cyber threats through exchanging expertise and information between national cybersecurity centers will foster trust in the digital environment and e-commerce while entrenching responsible state behavior in cyber space at both regional and international levels.
Digital cooperation in the Mediterranean will create new job opportunities and strengthen capacities among youth in digital skills, particularly artificial intelligence skills, especially considering the demographic challenge in Northern Mediterranean countries.
Furthermore, digital cooperation in the Mediterranean can bolster programs aimed at combating poverty, unemployment, illegal immigration, violence, extremism, and crime, addressing risks associated with the exportation of extremism into Europe or via rising far-right influences. This necessitates launching initiatives to support emerging entrepreneurial projects and platforms for cyber peace dialogue amongst Mediterranean youth.
Such developments are interlinked with educational advancement and fostering a culture of creativity and innovation while supporting civil society’s role in enhancing human capital. Encouraging the private sector and attracting foreign investments into the economies of Southern and Eastern Mediterranean countries is critical, particularly given their strategic positions, such as Egypt, through which 90% of undersea cables pass. In February, the first undersea cable linking Egypt to Albania and subsequently to the Balkans and Eastern and Central Europe was initiated, with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development contributing to technical support and digital transformation projects in the Suez Canal Economic Zone.
Towards a Sustainable Future for Digital Cooperation in the Mediterranean
The integration of cyber space into other four international domains – land, sea, air, and outer space – has led to the emergence of the concept of comprehensive state power, encompassing both hard and soft power. The applications of generative artificial intelligence have introduced new opportunities and challenges, with many countries recognizing that whoever controls these technologies will gain dominance, wealth, and hegemony in the future.
There is a growing realization that a developmental approach is essential to sustainably confront security threats – both physical and cyber – or both. This has led to growing trends for digital cooperation in the Mediterranean, especially amidst advancements made by Southern countries in the realm of digital transformation.
Sustainable digital cooperation within the Mediterranean necessitates addressing issues in digital development, building a digital economy, fostering digital skills, protecting human rights and cyber regulations, ensuring social justice, including marginalized groups, and reducing the digital divide – whether between Northern and Southern Mediterranean countries or among major cities and rural areas within states, or addressing the gender divide and narrowing the skills gap among Mediterranean youth, while tackling information infrastructure challenges such as undersea cables and raising awareness of cyber threats. Moreover, attracting investments to support the digital economy in the Southern Mediterranean, reducing data consumption costs or internet connectivity, and promoting the growth of tech industries are crucial.
Enhancing confidence, security, and stability in the cyber space is fundamental, as it serves as a cornerstone for regional security and the security of global supply chains. These regional efforts align with global shifts led by the United Nations towards digital cooperation, aiming to reach a global digital agreement during the Future Summit in New York in September 2024.
This is closely linked to the importance of achieving peace, whether between Russia and Ukraine, applying the two-state solution in the Middle East, supporting democratic transitions, building state institutions and economies in the Mediterranean, and promoting regional efforts to govern artificial intelligence for international public benefit, as well as achieving a binding international agreement on autonomous weapon systems and reforming the global governance system to adapt to new changes in threat elements in the digital age and reforming the international institutions concerned with maintaining international peace and security.
The study is available at the following link:
Digital Cooperation in the Mediterranean: Opportunities, Challenges, and the Future
The European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed), Year Book 2024
To view the report’s details, please visit:
https://www.iemed.org/med-yearbook/iemed-mediterranean-yearbook-2024/
