Debate on European Trends for Reinstating Compulsory Military Service

European countries are considering reinstating compulsory military service to enhance their own capabilities in the face of any Russian aggression, driven by concerns about the potential withdrawal of the United States’ defense commitment and Moscow’s ongoing war against Ukraine for the past three years.

Increasing Concerns

The war in Ukraine in early 2022 caught Europe by surprise, and concerns grew about the resilience of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) amid the radical changes President Donald Trump is implementing in American foreign policy, emphasizing that Europe should take care of the continent’s security.

Both military analysts and European governments acknowledge that the Russian threat is now higher than it was three years ago. Alexander Borilev, a researcher at the Institute of Political Science at Heidelberg University, stated that “the Russian army today is larger and better than it was on February 24, 2022. The Russians have hostile intentions towards the Baltic states and the eastern flank of the European Union.”

A study co-authored by Borilev for the Bruegel research center and the Kiel Institute suggests that Europe may need an additional 300,000 soldiers to deter any Russian movement, in addition to the 1.47 million currently serving. The researcher explains, “Compulsory conscription must play a role in (providing) such large numbers of new forces.”

From Paris to Warsaw

From Paris to Warsaw, leaders are seeking to increase defense spending in their countries in response to American threats to withdraw their security guarantees for Europe. However, many countries, including France and the United Kingdom, struggle to recruit and retain enough personnel. Reinstating some form of military service, whether compulsory or voluntary, may be even more challenging.

According to a YouGov poll, a majority in France (68%) and Germany (58%) support compulsory military service for young people. In contrast, Italians and Britons are divided on the issue, while a majority of Spaniards (53%) oppose it.

However, studies also show that many Europeans are not prepared to defend their countries on the battlefield. French expert Benedicte Cheron, who studies the relationship between society and the armed forces, explains, “In a liberal society, imposing military constraints has become almost impossible.” She adds, “As long as there is no invasion, the political costs of punishing those who refuse to serve seem unimaginable.”

Incentives and Divisions

Most European countries abolished conscription after the Cold War, with the exception of nine countries that never suspended it: Greece, Cyprus, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Norway, and Turkey. Lithuania reinstated conscription in 2015, a year after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in southern Ukraine.

Sweden followed suit in 2017, and Latvia in 2023. However, due to political and economic costs, most of the top five spending countries in NATO, namely France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Poland, do not plan to make joining the armed forces compulsory.

Poland, which abolished conscription in 2008, recently announced plans to provide military training to 100,000 civilians annually, starting in 2027. This program will be voluntary, while the authorities plan to adopt a system of “incentives and rewards,” according to Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

In Germany, prominent advisor Friedrich Merz expressed support for reinstating a mandatory year during which young people can perform military or community service. In the United Kingdom, the last national service conscripts were discharged in 1963, and the government has no plans to reverse that. Pat McFadden, the Minister for Cabinet Office, stated, “We are not considering conscription, but we have of course announced a significant increase in defense spending.” In Italy, Defense Minister Guido Crosetto ruled out reinstating conscription but supported the idea of creating a reserve force.

In France, where compulsory service ended in 2001, President Emmanuel Macron is exploring ways to encourage young people to serve in the military. In statements to journalists published on Saturday, he emphasized that France now lacks “logistical means” to reinstate compulsory service, but he wants to “find ways to mobilize civilians” and will issue a statement on the matter in the coming weeks. French military historian Michel Goya believes that reinstating national service “would mean turning a large part of the army into training centers.”

The East-West Divide… A Problem

Researchers believe that Western European politicians should learn from the Nordic and Baltic countries, especially Finland and Sweden. Finland, which shares a long border with Russia and was invaded by the Soviet Union in 1939, has one of the largest reserve forces in Europe.

Borilev asserts, “The East-West divide remains a problem. Few people in Western Europe are willing to fight.” He believes that convincing Europeans to volunteer requires advocacy campaigns. He explains, “There is also a connection between whether people see victory as possible in war and whether they want to serve, so a radical improvement in European military capabilities will increase people’s confidence in them.” Michel Goya points out that Europeans were shocked by their own fragility and defensive weakness. He notes that American support “is diminishing, and many European countries acknowledge that, ultimately, they are somewhat exposed.”

The Difficulty of Compulsory Conscription in Europe

According to RT Russian, regarding the difficulty of compulsory conscription in Europe and the creation of a unified army, Ivan Dobrovin and Semyon Boykov wrote in the newspaper “Izvestia”: In the aftermath of the United States’ decision to reduce its contribution to European security, countries in the Old World have increasingly been talking about resuming compulsory military conscription. At the same time, the European Union is discussing the idea of creating a unified European army.

Regarding this, Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the Center for International Security at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told “Izvestia”: “Europe is looking for ways to regain its strategic independence, considering the capabilities of Russia and the United States. However, it will be difficult for the European Union countries to develop a unified approach and implement their plans to increase the number of armed forces.”

“For many years, no one in the European Union has invested in maintaining something they did not intend to use. Unused capabilities die on their own; and it is impossible, with a magic wand, to achieve mobilization and a significant increase in the number of armed forces and regular reserves. This is a very long process, and it is not only related to people’s willingness to go to serve, but also to their acceptance, accommodation, and training. The reluctance of Europeans to fight should not be overlooked.”

A Gallup poll conducted in July showed that 32% of EU citizens are willing to defend their countries in the event of war. Nikita Lyapunov, an assistant researcher at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, ruled out the idea of creating a unified European army receiving support in all EU countries. He said, “In particular, Denmark, Finland, and Sweden primarily rely on the security guarantees provided by NATO and close relations with the United States for their defense. While their leadership claims that strategic independence of Europe is their goal, it will be difficult to implement in the near future.”

The Decline of European Armies

TRT Arabi, the Turkish broadcaster, believes that the war in Ukraine has revealed the extent of the decline that European armies are experiencing, after decades of those countries relying on NATO, and thus on the United States, to defend them in the event of any military threat on their territory.

European armies suffer from several problems, primarily a lack of personnel and a shortage of recruits. In Germany, 18% of all army positions are vacant, while the country aims to increase its troop numbers from 181,000 to 203,000 by 2025, a goal that remains unattainable so far. In France, which has the largest army in Europe with a total of 205,000 soldiers, around 2,000 military positions remain vacant.

In general, European armies are significantly smaller in number compared to the American army, which exceeds 1.3 million military personnel. There are only three European countries whose military forces exceed 150,000 active soldiers: France, Germany, and Italy, with 170,000 soldiers.

European armies also suffer from other problems, the most important of which is the low spending on equipment and ammunition. According to Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall, the largest defense company in Germany, Europe “needs 10 years to become capable of defending itself.”