The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union marked a pivotal moment in history, seen by many, including Francis Fukuyama, as the “end of history.” However, that vision changed with the onset of the Russian-Ukrainian war in February 2022. The world once again found itself in a situation similar to that of 1939, just before the outbreak of World War II, as tensions among the great powers intensified.
This escalating conflict raises the critical question of whether the Western powers, Russia, and China have the capacity to prevent a potential world war. This is a subject explored by Jim Sciutto in his book The Return of Great Powers: Russia, China, and the Next World War, where he discusses the recent developments reshaping the global order, which has been crafted over decades by the West, particularly the United States, in the wake of Russia and China’s rise.
A New World Order:
After World War II, the world plunged into a new Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, where peace was relatively maintained. When the Soviet Union collapsed, many celebrated the end of history, but this idea has now been overturned by the rise of Russia and China, signaling the emergence of a new world order characterized by:
Complicated Conflicts: The rivalry between the three great powers has intensified the complexity and duration of conflicts, widening the gap in diplomatic and economic interactions and reducing military communication. This diminishes the protective barriers and diplomatic-military channels developed during the last Cold War, with communication being a key tool in crisis management.
Arms Race: The great powers are striving to enhance their nuclear arsenals and new categories of weapons, freezing some treaties governing these weapons. These treaties were originally formed after the Cuban Missile Crisis, when the U.S. and the Soviet Union came close to nuclear war, prompting the creation of rules and multilateral treaties to avoid slipping into armed conflict.
Polarizing Policies: The current great powers are working to attract medium powers and influential actors in both regional and international spheres to capitalize on current conflicts. The return of the great powers has disrupted the post-Cold War global system, replacing it with a less stable one.
Multiple Fronts of Escalation:
The United States faces escalating tensions on two fronts: the European circle, particularly in Ukraine, and Southeast Asia, especially in the Taiwan Strait. This situation is exacerbated by the failure of U.S. intelligence to foresee Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014. Similarly, the CIA’s erroneous assessment of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction program in 2003 casts doubt on the accuracy of its predictions. Two main pressure points on U.S. interests can be outlined:
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine didn’t begin in 2022. Russia had already made moves in Eastern Europe in 2014, notably seizing Crimea. By early 2022, U.S. and British intelligence warned of a likely Russian invasion of Ukraine, with Moscow massing around 75% of its conventional forces against Ukraine. This included approximately 120 out of 160 Russian tactical battalions. Russia employed a strategy of military mobilization, aiming for a blitzkrieg involving aerial strikes followed by a broad ground offensive, to gain full control of Ukraine, overthrow its leaders, and turn the country into a piece in the geopolitical chess game between the U.S. and Russia.
China’s Sovereignty over Taiwan: As the U.S. assessed Russian preparations for invading Ukraine, another threat loomed in Southeast Asia. China was preparing to seize Taiwan by force, viewing it as a legitimate part of its territory. Chinese President Xi Jinping had long expressed ambitions for “reunification.” The most dangerous scenario was that Russia and China might act simultaneously, with China taking advantage of Russia’s “blitzkrieg” in Ukraine to launch a similar attack on Taiwan.
Testing War Tactics:
Russia has increasingly sought to regain control and compete with the West, particularly NATO. This effort has been bolstered through the use of media, intellectual elites, and the mobilization of academic and bureaucratic circles to support expansionist strategies, especially regarding Ukraine. The narrative has been pushed that Ukraine has always been a part of Russia and that Ukrainians are part of the Russian people.
The war in Ukraine has become a real laboratory for modern warfare, combining old and new tactics and weapons. It has also served as a proving ground for great power conflicts, showcasing shifts in battlefield dynamics and military strategies for both Ukraine and the West, as well as for Russian forces. The coordination between the West (the U.S. and NATO) and Ukraine in their fight against Russia could reshape the balance of power, as evidenced by the following:
Strategic Shifts: The war has intensified Russia’s justifications for its invasion, particularly its goal of reducing NATO’s presence and eliminating military infrastructure in countries that joined since 1997. However, the war has had the opposite effect, with more NATO forces being deployed in the alliance’s eastern regions, and Finland and Sweden joining the organization. Ukraine itself is now closer to NATO membership.
Failure to Achieve Objectives: One of the war’s notable outcomes has been Russia’s failure to conduct any successful ground operations in the foreseeable future due to the devastating human losses. By May 2023, Russian casualties were estimated to be between 40,000 to 55,000 soldiers, with around 78,000 wounded.
Weapon Supply Shortfalls: The Russian-Ukrainian war revealed deep flaws in the West’s military supply chain. After World War II, Western leaders focused on building peace rather than strengthening their military capabilities. This has now become necessary, with a growing emphasis on modernizing armies and increasing defense investments.
Consolidating Spheres of Influence: The shockwaves from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have spread across Eastern Europe, solidifying the dividing lines between the great powers in both Europe and Asia. This has led to an entrenchment of spheres of influence, with Russia and China on one side, and the U.S. and its allies on the other, as they bolster their influence through troop deployments and weapons systems.
The China-Russia Alliance:
NATO’s updated strategic document has, for the first time, listed China as one of the major powers and direct threats to the alliance’s interests. This reflects China’s growing influence and military expansion, which challenge NATO’s security and global rules. This alignment between China and Russia has led NATO to enhance its military posture.
With China moving closer to possessing 1,500 nuclear warheads on missiles that could reach Europe and North America by 2035, and the growing Russia-China alliance, the global landscape has shifted. Both countries view the Western alliance as a threat to their interests and believe that the current world order was designed to benefit the West.
This alliance is evident in the cooperation between the leaders of both countries, with Beijing providing Moscow with drones, ammunition, and technological support during its war in Ukraine. This deep partnership poses a challenge to international stability, diminishing American and Western influence globally.
Despite these challenges, the U.S. is reluctant to engage in a full-scale confrontation with China, especially over Taiwan. The financial and military costs of such a war would be immense, particularly considering that 50% of global trade passes through the Taiwan Strait, and over 70% of semiconductors are manufactured in Taiwan.
Conclusion:
The escalating conflict among the great powers has led to proxy confrontations in critical areas, such as NATO’s eastward expansion toward Ukraine and U.S. military coordination in the Taiwan Strait. Two factors complicate efforts to contain the conflict or establish a deterrence system reminiscent of the post-WWII era: first, the Russia-China alliance, which is attracting regional powers like Iran and North Korea; and second, the world is now entering a phase with fewer treaties, or even frameworks for treaties, to manage expanding conflicts, especially after the termination of key nuclear arms control agreements between the U.S. and Russia.
Source:
Jim Sciutto. (2024). The Return of Great Powers: Russia, China, and the Next World War. DUTTON.
