This study addresses the changes occurring in the field of cyber capabilities and their impact on international relations, focusing on the importance of technological developments and their role in altering the dynamics of international conflicts and competition. Given that the United States and China are the foremost global powers in cyber capabilities, the study highlights these two nations. The United States holds a pioneering position in the cyber realm due to its political, economic, military, and technological strength, while China is rapidly advancing as an emerging economic power, significantly investing in the enhancement of its cyber capabilities.
This study aims to review and analyze the cyber capabilities of the United States and China, providing a comprehensive overview of their strategies and objectives in the realm of cyber capabilities. It examines the evolution of these capabilities and how they are utilized to bolster the countries’ positions in international competition, as well as their role in addressing the increasing cyber challenges.
The findings of this study indicate that the competition between American and Chinese cyber capabilities will continue to shape the international landscape, driven by tremendous advancements and shifts in geopolitical and advanced technological cyber dynamics, which will be a pivotal factor in determining the new rules of global power and influence in the future.
Keywords: international competition, cyber capabilities, United States, China, international relations.
Introduction:
In distinguishing between cyber power and cyber capabilities, cyber power represents a comprehensive concept tied to an entity’s (such as a state or institution) overall ability to achieve its goals and protect its interests in cyberspace. It relies on the effective use of available cyber elements, such as technology, knowledge, laws, and human capacities. Cyber power encompasses the ability to defend digital assets and sensitive data, as well as the capability to execute cyber attacks when necessary, reflecting a comprehensive influence and control within cyberspace.
On the other hand, cyber capabilities pertain to the actual elements that states or entities possess to conduct activities and operations in cyberspace; these capabilities include systems, technologies, tools, knowledge, and skills used to achieve specific objectives. For example, cyber capabilities encompass the tools and software that enable activities such as hacking, espionage, cyber destruction, and enhancing cybersecurity to defend the cyber infrastructure of a state or institution.
Thus, one could argue that cyber power represents an overall assessment of the ability to influence and control cyberspace, while cyber capabilities refer to the specific elements and tools that enable an entity to exercise this influence and control. Generally, cyber capabilities can be envisioned as the means and tools employed to achieve cyber power. States and political entities strive to enhance their cyber capabilities to ensure their cybersecurity and bolster their influence in the digital world.
Many states aim to enhance their cyber power and invest in cyber capabilities, as these have taken on a new form in terms of nature, means, tools, data, and indicators. Currently, we witness how international conflict primarily gravitates towards competition and influence enhancement in technology and innovation, reshaping the nature of conflicts and wars, affecting their actors, and encouraging a rethinking of the dynamics of international relations.
Cyberattack incidents have led to a noticeable acceleration in cyber armament and investment trends toward bolstering cybersecurity and artificial intelligence applications. Some nations have declared that cyberspace is the fifth military domain after land, sea, air, and space forces. In this context, many countries have established substantial budgets to enhance their military cyber capabilities, both offensive and defensive.
Cyber capabilities have become a crucial area for exercising influence and achieving superiority in international competition, especially after some nations developed their capabilities in this field. Over the past three decades, the world has witnessed a series of destructive cyberattacks, characterized by defacement of websites, advanced cyber threats, targeting certain information systems and databases, and manipulation of data stored on computers belonging to various government institutions and private entities.
Given that the United States and China represent two of the most significant global leaders in cyber capabilities, the United States occupies a pioneering position due to its political, economic, military, and technological strength; it possesses extensive capabilities in cyberspace. Conversely, China is rapidly growing as an emerging economic power and is significantly investing in developing its cyber capabilities.
Both the United States and China top global reports measuring cyber capabilities and international cybersecurity indicators, owing to their ability to influence and control cyberspace and respond to cybersecurity challenges while adapting to the increasing requirements in this domain concerning digital infrastructure.
Thus, this study aims to review and analyze the cyber capabilities of the United States and China, providing a comprehensive overview of their strategies and goals in the field of cyber capabilities, studying the evolution of these capabilities, and how they are used to enhance the positions of both countries in international competition, in addition to their role in confronting and addressing increasing cyber challenges.
This research stems from the following central question: How does the cyber competition between the United States and China affect their global influence, and how is this reflected in their respective cyber strategies?
I. Cyber Capabilities of the United States
The United States has been concerned about vulnerabilities in cyberspace for over two decades and has sought ways to mitigate this issue. Simultaneously, it has secretly begun to develop and utilize offensive cyber operations for military purposes while ensuring its intelligence agencies adapted their information-gathering activities to include internet acquisition.
As dominance over the internet and cyberspace has become a strategic goal for the United States, some experts have considered it the only country with a significant global footprint in the realm of cyber capabilities. David Clark asserts that the United States not only created the internet but is the strongest nation in terms of possessing cyber capabilities through large tech corporations it controls.
A report issued by a British research center in 2021 indicated that the United States leads the list of “the foremost leading states” in cyber capabilities globally, without facing any competitors for this title, although it perceives itself as facing significant threats from China, Russia, and North Korea in this domain.
According to a report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the United States enjoys a unique position as a first-rate cyber power in the world; however, it is anticipated that in the coming years, China will be discussed as a prominent competitor with high capabilities. The report also noted that “dominance over cyberspace has been a strategic goal for the United States since the mid-1990s, presenting itself as a unique country with a strong global footprint in cyberspace usages, both civil and military.
The United States is considered one of the leading countries in possessing advanced cyber and military capabilities, with the United States Cyber Command (USCYBERCOM) under the Department of Defense, which has directive authority over cyber operations. This command was established on June 23, 2009, at the National Security Agency headquarters at Fort Meade, Maryland, as a unified sub-command under U.S. Strategic Command, created due to the growing importance and vulnerability of computers and networks in the United States and worldwide at the time and the increased reliance of the Department of Defense on cyber systems to command and control its forces, thus realizing the necessity to protect and defend these vital systems.
The command coordinates its operations with networks of the National Security Agency, and is led by the Director of the National Security Agency, General Paul Nakasone. Although this command was originally established for defensive purposes, it is viewed as an offensive force relying on five core components: Army Cyber Command, Fleet Cyber Command, Air Force Cyber Command, Marine Corps and Coast Guard Cyber Command, in addition to National Guard units. Approximately 133 cyber teams within this command undertake various missions related to cybersecurity.
In September 2023, the U.S. Department of Defense (the Pentagon) launched the “Cyber Defense Strategy 2023” document, outlining how the department operates to protect the American people and enhance its cybersecurity priorities.
The document is based on the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and cybersecurity strategy, drawing upon cyber operations carried out by the Pentagon since 2018, presenting challenges such as the Russian war in Ukraine and lessons learned from it, notably the importance of integrating cyber capabilities with conventional combat capabilities. The strategy also delineates how the Department of Defense can maximize its cyber capabilities to support integrated deterrence and employ cyberspace operations in coordination with other national power tools. Furthermore, the strategy emphasizes the Defense Department’s efforts to invest in ensuring the defense, availability, reliability, and resilience of its cyber networks and infrastructure to support non-DOD agencies in their relevant roles and to protect the defense industrial base.
The 2023 U.S. strategy includes key challenges posed by North Korea and China. Through this strategy, the Pentagon aims to achieve four objectives in the fields of cyber defense and readiness, including building a network to protect cyberspace with allies and partners, reforming departmental institutions to advance progress in this area. The strategy also stresses the importance of cooperation and coordination with other federal institutions to build robust and integrated cyber capabilities.
The strategy is anchored on the principle of “forward defense,” thus American cyber power is viewed primarily as an offensive force that relies on integrating technological capabilities at all stages of its operations.
On December 16, 2022, the U.S. Senate approved the new 2023 defense budget, allocating 11.2billiontoprotectcyberspace,whichhasbecomeakeyarenaforconfrontationbetweenmajorpowers,andapproximately11.2billiontoprotectcyberspace,whichhasbecomeakeyarenaforconfrontationbetweenmajorpowers,andapproximately2.9 billion to the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. In return, President Joe Biden’s administration requested Congress to increase cybersecurity funding by $26.6 billion for the fiscal year 2024.
The United States possesses several factors and features that make it a prominent power in this area through its ownership of advanced cyber capabilities, whether through cooperation with the private sector and investment in cybersecurity-related research and development, and its ability to carry out cyberattacks. Furthermore, it has a skilled workforce in the cybersecurity field and close collaboration with major tech companies (Google, Facebook, Microsoft, etc.) based in the United States.
Figure 1: Number of Internet Users in the United States (2015 – 2023)
Source: Number of internet users in the United States from 2015 to 2023, Feb 22, 2023, [Source link], accessed on September 22, 2023.
Figure 1 illustrates that the number of individuals accessing the internet in the United States has exceeded 311 million since January 2023, making it one of the largest online markets globally. The United States currently ranks third after China and India regarding the size of its internet-connected audience.
According to data, the United States had 246.0 million social media users in January 2023, representing 72.5% of the total population. There were a total of 383.4 million active mobile cellular connections in the United States in early 2023, equating to 113.1% of the total population.
Success in the cyber domain is becoming increasingly significant, as it has become essential for advancing U.S. national interests. Currently, digital technologies define numerous operations that characterize modern societies, ranging from communication to financing, electricity to transportation, espionage to national security. The United States is focusing its efforts to enhance its cyber capabilities based on these facts, amidst fierce competition with other nations such as China and Russia.
The United States, which invented the internet, aims to ensure the continuity of the internet’s role in enhancing its power, influence, freedom, and cyber security. From the perspective of the U.S., cyberspace must enhance military supremacy and facilitate intelligence-gathering activities to protect national security and deter competing international powers, addressing informational threats, and protecting the democratic electoral system through winning wars in any domain, including cyberspace and conducting proactive cyberattacks in collaboration with allies to achieve these objectives.
From these premises, it is evident that the United States possesses advanced cyber capabilities reflecting its strong commitment to protecting its security and interests in cyberspace. This commitment is exemplified through American endeavors toward achieving cyberspace sovereignty through a set of essential policies and strategies, including exercising control over the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN), the organization responsible for managing domain names on the internet, which contributes to enhancing the U.S.’s influence in global internet structures and ensuring their sustainability.
Moreover, the United States’ increase in cybersecurity funding reflects its commitment to combating cyber threats and enhancing defensive and offensive capabilities in this domain. Continuous investment in this sector, valued at billions of dollars, contributes to the development of advanced cyber technologies and employs a skilled and trained workforce to effectively confront threats, in addition to ongoing investment in cybersecurity protecting critical infrastructure.
A 2022 report from the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University, and earlier the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ 2021 index ranking the cyber capabilities of 15 countries globally, indicates that the United States ranks first in the world as a nation with leading strengths in cyberspace, possessing high-quality intelligence capabilities, a robust cyber academic and industrial base, advanced strategy and doctrine, governance and leadership, cyber resilience, global leadership in cyberspace affairs, and offensive cyber capabilities.
In 2020, the United States ranked first in the Global Cybersecurity Index (GCI) issued by the International Telecommunication Union under the United Nations, scoring 100 points out of the highest commitment to cybersecurity.
Thus, the researcher believes that U.S. cyber capabilities rely on advanced technologies and high-precision technology in shaping its policies and strategies at both national and international levels. The United States benefits from advanced scientific foundations that have preceded many countries in the field of cyber capabilities. This superiority enables the United States to achieve control and leadership in this field, especially as it effectively employs and develops cybersecurity technologies, striving to enhance its cyber capabilities to achieve its strategic goals, including dominance over cyberspace amid competition with other countries, particularly China and Russia, reflecting the importance of cyberspace as a vital strategic environment necessary for ensuring national and economic security.
II. Cyber Capabilities of China
China’s aspiration to become a cyber superpower dates back to 2014 when President Xi Jinping introduced the concept of “great cyber power” by establishing the Central Leading Group for Cybersecurity and Informatization within the Communist Party of China. He presented several concepts that continue to define the significance of cyberspace for China’s international ambitions, highlighting the impact of the information technology revolution on developments in political, economic, and military affairs.
China began developing a cyber strategy in 2016 during the 10th Congress of the Communist Party, where senior authorities emphasized the importance of cyberspace. This strategy was supported by China’s first cybersecurity law in 2017. The strategy established nine core tasks with a focus on sovereignty and strengthening electronic defenses, developed by the Central Committee of the Party while governing related issues in media and cyber power across various fields, allowing China to construct and develop a competitive cyber strategy in the international arena.
Improvements China has achieved over the years and its experience in developing cyber offensive capabilities and relevant institutions have ranked it as the second-largest comprehensive cyber power after the United States in the National Cyber Power Index 2022 released by the Belfer Center.
These assessments largely align with findings from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in its July 2021 report, which ranked major cyber powers based on seven criteria: strategy and doctrine, command and control, cyber intelligence capabilities, reliance on cyberspace, cybersecurity, global leadership in cyberspace, and offensive cyber capabilities.
The inclusion of the “Strategic Support Force” in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in 2015 bolstered China’s ambition to transform into a dominant cyber superpower by 2025. China’s military institution views cyber warfare as preventive measures for traditional military operations.
China also uses electronic espionage techniques to identify vulnerabilities in the critical infrastructure of its adversaries that can be exploited during war. With this objective, China has integrated various cyber domains into its armed forces, including the Third Department of the PLA, responsible for defending computer networks, signals intelligence, and exploiting computer systems, while the Fourth Department manages integrated network electronic warfare and computer network attacks, merging strategic support forces with intelligence and communications to build an integrated information warfare power.
China adopts a “whole-of-nation” approach to develop its cyber ecosystem, encompassing numerous national hacking groups, university students as cyber warriors, and private telecommunications companies like Huawei and ZTE, collaborating with the PLA.
Chinese units tasked with conducting cyber-related activities are divided into two groups: professional hackers within the PLA and “patriotic” hackers who occasionally operate on behalf of the government, supporting various operations in cyberspace. Although the supervisory structure for cyber operations in China is less transparent than in the United States, most experts believe that the majority of cyber operations are conducted under the oversight of the Third Department of the PLA General Staff.
This structure bears some resemblance to the U.S. National Security Agency, focusing its efforts on signals intelligence, cryptography, and cybersecurity for the PLA. Approximately 130,000 individuals work in this department. Its most important element is the Northern Computing Center in Beijing, also known as PLA Unit 61539, which oversees ten sections engaged in “designing and developing defense and attack systems and exploiting computer networks.”
China also places a significant focus on training, with 12 dedicated cyber capability training facilities across China. A specialized cybersecurity unit located in China’s largest military base, covering an area of 1,066 square kilometers called Zhurihe, plays a particular role in simulating the behavior of the United States and its allies in cyberspace and training Chinese cyber units to enhance their capabilities.
The most renowned Chinese “secret” cyber attack unit is “Unit 61398,” part of the Third Division of the PLA, composed of top experts, information technology specialists, electronics engineers, mathematicians, and linguists (most of whom speak English), based in Shanghai. This unit functions not merely as a traditional unit but serves as an operational center executing decisions made in Beijing regarding activity in cyberspace.
The Fourth Department (cyber) also plays a role in managing cyber operations and electronic counter-disruptions within the PLA General Staff, tasked with offensive cyber attacks and electronic countermeasures (jamming and anti-jamming), addressing cyber threats, and enhancing information and infrastructure security.
Within this department, three research institutes, four operational centers, and twelve operational offices monitor phone, radio, satellite, and computer communications. There is a large community known as national hackers in China, who engage in simple operations in cyberspace, such as Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attacks, website defacement, and spam.
Members of these groups include staff from university IT departments, employees in IT divisions of state-owned enterprises, and online players who collaborate with or operate under government direction to execute specific cyber tasks.
China’s digital technology sector has become a measure of its strength and influence abroad, presenting a primary front in the struggle with the United States. Despite the existence of a wide range of policies applicable in China’s cyber, technological, and digital domains, its comprehensive Digital Strategy released in February 2023 aims to advance digital development in China under the title “Digital China Strategy.”
The strategy proposes that China fully integrates digitization by 2025, aiming for Beijing to become a global leader in the digital sphere by 2035. Efforts to develop the Digital China strategy have followed an official framework known as “2522,” with each digit representing one of the key elements of the strategy and one of the objectives and means of “Digital China,” including the international component.
China seeks to enhance digital development in building cyber infrastructure and a data resources system, in addition to integrating digital technologies with infrastructure sectors, hastening the construction of 5G networks, the large-scale application of Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6), the BeiDou satellite navigation system, and the Internet of Things (IoT).
China primarily employs its cyber capabilities to address local needs and interests, generating prosperity and maintaining economic growth and social stability, with a main focus on “cleansing” the internet in China of ideas and information that may challenge the authority of the Communist Party, making monitoring and surveillance technologies vital.
China’s emergence as a major global power is reshaping the cyber domain, especially as it possesses the largest community of internet users in the world. Statistics for 2023 show that approximately 884 million people use the internet for shopping, education, and commerce, representing about 82% of internet users in China. A total of 1.69 billion active mobile cellular connections existed in China in early 2023, equating to 118.6% of its total population.
Figure 2: Number of Internet Users in China (June 2023)
Source: Number of internet users in China as of June 2023, by activity, Statista, September 14, 2023, [Source link], accessed on September 22, 2023.
Chinese cyber capabilities are characterized by a widespread culture of the internet and its penetration, which is a cornerstone in developing the cyber strategy due to the large number of internet users and the availability of numerous electronic devices and infrastructure. Additionally, China has distinctive technological manufacturing capabilities, along with technological research strengths in artificial intelligence, military capabilities, and cyber intelligence.
Supporting this landscape are economic, political, and military incentives, as the Chinese president’s vision holds that cyber sovereignty is the right of every state to choose its own path to cyber development, its method of cyber organization and public internet policy, and participation in global governance of cyberspace to ensure equal standing with other countries.
Based on the above, China’s cyber capabilities reflect rapid growth and technological and economic advancement, placing it at the forefront of international indicators in this field. China possesses strong technological foundations and economic resources that support cybersecurity development. However, challenges include the potential military use of cyber capabilities and accusations of using these capabilities to conduct cyberattacks, especially regarding breaches, privacy, and surveillance.
Conclusion:
Analyzing the cyber capabilities of the United States and China and their competition is a vital part of the contemporary international landscape. Technological advancements in cyberspace are rapidly progressing, reflecting their impact on elements of national power and security. The United States currently possesses tremendous cyber power backed by technological innovation and defensive and offensive cybersecurity strategies. Meanwhile, China is increasingly enhancing its cyber capabilities and adjusting its military strategies to include digital dimensions; the Chinese technology sector is experiencing rapid progress, and the modernization of legislation and promotion of innovation evidences its ability to achieve global cyber superiority and competitiveness against the United States.
This competition is expected to intensify in areas such as artificial intelligence and cyber technology, leading to significant developments in these capabilities. The analysis and foresight in this domain indicate that the competition between American and Chinese cyber capabilities will continue to shape the international scene, driven by tremendous advancements and transformations in geopolitical dynamics and enhanced technological cyber capabilities that will serve as a pivotal factor in establishing the new rules of global power and influence in the future.
Books
- “China and Cybersecurity: Espionage, Strategy, and Politics in the Digital Domain” Editors: Jon R. Lindsay, Tai Ming Cheung, Derek S. Reveron, Publisher: Oxford University Press, 2015.
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- Preparing the Cyber Battlefield: Assessing a Novel Escalation Risk in a Sino-American Crisis, Authors: Ben Buchanan and Fiona Cunningham, Publisher: Texas National Security Review, 2020.
- Cyber Capabilities and National Power: A Net Assessment”, Publisher: International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), 2021.
- China’s Cyber Capabilities: Warfare, Espionage, and Implications for the United States”, Publisher: U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2021.
- Evaluating China’s Road to Cyber Super Power”, Author: Ian Williams; Publisher: NSI, 2021.
- China’s Cyber Influencing and Interference”, Publisher: International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), 2022
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[30]– Andrzej Kozłowski, The Assessment of the China’s Cyber Warfare Capabilities and Its Consequences for Potential Conflict over Taiwan, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego, 2015, p.164, https://urlz.fr/q0Xo , Accessed, )22/9/2023(.[32] -Adam Jourdan, China-U.S. cyber spying row turns spotlight back on shadowy Unit 61398, Reuters, May 20, 2014, https://urlz.fr/q0X1 , Accessed, )22/9/2023(.[33] -Mark Clayton, US indicts five in China’s secret ‘Unit 61398’ for cyber-spying on US firms, The Christian Science Monitor, May 19, 2014, https://urlz.fr/q0Xd , Accessed, )22/9/2023.([36] – David Dorman, The Digital China “Plan” is New, but “Digital China” is Not, Digital china wins the future, )27/2/2023(, https://urlz.fr/q0Xw[37] – Sarah Sewall, Tyler Vandenberg, Kaj Malden, China’s BeiDou, New Dimensions of Great Power Competition, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge, US, Feb. 2022, https://urlz.fr/q0Xz , Accessed: )22/9/2023(.[38] -Helene Pleil, Being a Cyberpower – China’s Ambitions in Cyberspace, Tech Policy Press, 30/3/2023, https://urlz.fr/q0XE , Accessed, )22/9/2023(.[39] -Number of internet users in China as of June 2023, by activity, statista, Sep 14, 2023, https://urlz.fr/q0W5 , Accessed: )22/9/2023(.[40] – Digital 2023: China, Data Reportal, Feb.2023, https://urlz.fr/q0XK , Accessed: )22/9/2023(.RUSH DOSHI, EMILY DE LA BRUYÈRE,NATHAN PICARSIC, AND JOHN FERGUSON, CHINA AS A “CYBER GREAT POWER”, Foreign Policy at Brookings, APRIL 2021, https://urlz.fr/q0Yq , Accessed: )22/9/2023(
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