On December 15, 2024, the Jubaland government announced the release of Somali National Army soldiers captured during the recent clashes between Jubaland state forces and the Somali government. The fighting broke out in the town of “Ras Kamboni” on December 11, 2024, between federal government forces and local forces affiliated with this semi-autonomous state, which is one of Somalia’s five such states. Jubaland confirmed that its fighters managed to seize control of the town and the nearby airport, with many federal government troops surrendering. This occurred despite the government’s orders for its armed forces to withdraw from their positions in the Lower Juba region to avoid escalation and protect lives. These developments follow the tensions between the two parties after regional elections held in the state in late November 2024, which resulted in the re-election of regional president “Ahmed Mohamed Islam Madobe” for a third term. The Somali government described these elections as “illegal,” leading Jubaland to suspend its relations with the central government.
Significant Indicators
Several indicators reflect the escalation of the ongoing conflict between the Somali federal government and Jubaland:
Divergent Views on Election Regulations: This was evidenced by Jubaland President “Ahmed Mohamed Islam” (Madobe) announcing on October 7, 2024, his boycott of a National Consultative Council meeting convened by President “Hassan Sheikh Mohamud” in Mogadishu. The meeting aimed to reach an agreement on moving toward direct elections under a multi-party system and extending the terms of some regional administrations. Jubaland strongly opposed this, asserting its complete autonomy to conduct its elections on schedule as stipulated in Article 80 of the Jubaland Constitution, and opposed any federal decision on national elections without consensus among the main stakeholders, particularly due to the absence of the Puntland and Galmudug states.
Rejection of Jubaland Election Results by the Somali Government: This was reflected in the Somali federal government’s announcement rejecting the regional elections held in Jubaland on November 25, 2024. Prime Minister “Hamza Abdi Barre” characterized these elections as “unconstitutional” and conflicting with commitments made during the National Consultative Council to establish a unified electoral framework or general vote. The federal government accused Jubaland of manipulating the electoral process to maintain its grip on political power. Notably, the Somali Prime Minister condemned Jubaland’s leader’s legal right to organize the electoral process in the state, asserting that Article 70 of the Jubaland Constitution stipulates a maximum of two presidential terms.
Jubaland’s Accusation Against the Somali Government of Undermining Federalism: This charge was articulated by the Ministry of Internal Security of the Jubaland administration in an official statement on November 25, 2024, accusing the Somali government of attempting to undermine the federal system and instigating political and security unrest in the state. The statement alleged the Somali government unlawfully deployed troops to Ras Kamboni, raising concerns about potential clashes between these forces and regional state forces.
Clashes Between Government Forces and Jubaland Forces: Violent fighting between the two sides erupted in the Ras Kamboni area on December 11, 2024. Somali Defense Minister “Abdikadir Mohamed Nur” asserted that Jubaland forces initiated the clashes, attacking units of the Somali Federal Army in Lower Juba to seize bases from which the African Union transitional mission in Somalia “ATMIS” had withdrawn. Jubaland fighters reportedly took control of the town and the nearby airport.
Possible Outcomes: The escalation of the conflict between the federal government and Jubaland could yield several potential outcomes:
- Kenya’s Neutral Mediation Role: Given Kenya’s direct connection to the tensions between the Somali federal government and Jubaland, it may seek to mediate. Kenya is concerned about the potential spillover of security tensions across their shared border, especially with its hosting of over 320,000 Somali refugees.
- Diminished Government Control in Jubaland: The federal government’s military defeats could weaken its efforts to subdue the regional president and pressure him into negotiations, potentially benefiting local opposition.
- Increased Importance of Regional Forces: The federal government’s incapacity to decisively defeat Jubaland illustrates the critical role local forces play in recent security gains in other parts of Somalia.
- Surge in Terrorist Activities by Al-Shabaab: Amid regional tensions, Al-Shabaab has reportedly undertaken attacks, signaling its capability to exploit the ongoing political discord.
- Commitment to Ethiopia-Turkey Agreement: The Somali government may leverage its agreement with Ethiopia to counter setbacks from regional forces despite the deployment of the national military and special forces.
- Western Efforts to Calm Tensions: Increased diplomatic engagement, exemplified by meetings with British officials, suggests a growing international concern over the situation in Jubaland, advocating for dialogue to stabilize the region.
In conclusion, the ongoing clash between the Somali federal government and Jubaland significantly impacts President “Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s” administration, showcasing its inability to effectively manage political crises and build a comprehensive internal political consensus, particularly with the five semi-autonomous states. The future outlook suggests escalating instability in relations between the two entities, especially considering potential government attempts to assert control over the situation in Jubaland by cutting off support to the region.
