In light of the instability currently affecting the Middle East, following the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip after the “Aqsa Flood” operation launched by Hamas against Israel on October 7, 2023, as well as the reciprocal airstrikes between Iran and Israel, this article will explore the developments of the current escalation in the region, its implications, and summarize the current regional landscape along with its strategic dimensions and potential outcomes. Several key trends can be highlighted as follows:
Increased Assassinations of Leaders: A series of assassinations has occurred recently within the context of the Israeli escalation in Gaza and Lebanon. The most notable included the assassination of the former Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, and his deputy, Hashim Safi al-Din, as well as many high-ranking leaders of the party. This also included the assassination of most Hamas leaders, notably former political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, followed by his successor Yahya Sinwar. New dimensions have emerged in these assassination operations, particularly regarding the use of artificial intelligence and modern technology, leading to an unprecedented increase in their frequency in the region.
Decline in Hezbollah’s Capabilities: The Israeli escalation against Hezbollah over the past months has resulted in a significant decline in the party’s capabilities. More than 62 of its leaders have been killed since the outbreak of confrontations, along with airstrikes targeting Hezbollah’s weapon and ammunition depots, as well as its sites. However, this does not imply Hezbollah’s demise, especially since Israel still struggles to achieve ground control in southern Lebanon or to push the party north of the Litani River.
Syria’s Avoidance of Involvement: Since the onset of the war on Gaza, Syria has sought to avoid engagement in the ongoing conflict, motivated by its desire to mend its internally tumultuous situation since 2011. Nonetheless, the Iranian presence in Syria, alongside repeated Israeli strikes targeting this presence, could result in Syria being drawn into the current regional conflict.
Mutual Messages in Iranian-Israeli Strikes: The direct attacks from Iran on Israel on October 1, 2024, and the subsequent Israeli response on October 26 delivered messages regarding each party’s desire to assert its capability to reach the other’s military and nuclear capabilities. It is noteworthy that the outcomes of the strikes between Iran and Israel remain unclear, as both sides are keen not to reveal the true extent of their losses, which could compel them to take specific actions and retaliatory measures. However, satellite images revealed damage to the Israeli “Negev” airbase due to the Iranian attack, which also conveyed a message about the potential threat to the Dimona nuclear reactor. Conversely, Israeli strikes caused destruction to Iranian air defense systems and targeted key missile production sites, sending a message that Iranian nuclear reactors are within the target range.
Impact of U.S. Policies in the Region: There is no significant difference in the U.S. policies of both Republicans and Democrats regarding strategic issues in the region. The difference may lie in the tools and methods employed, but not in the strategic objectives. This weakens the impact of the election of either American presidential candidate, whether Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Kamala Harris, on the current situation in the region.
Reshaping the Region: The Israeli war on Gaza and subsequently Lebanon, along with the escalation in other regional fronts, has led to a state of security, military, and political fluidity in the region, potentially resulting in a reshaping of the area. The core of the current escalation is fundamentally a conflict between Iran and its proxies on one side, and Israel and the United States supporting it on the other.
