Donald Trump’s return to the White House sends negative signals across the global climate community, casting a shadow over the outcomes of the “COP 29” summit held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 22, 2024. The climate summit in the Azeri capital has already witnessed deep divisions between developed and developing countries regarding funding. In this turbulent global context, Trump’s victory represents a seismic shift in the climate action landscape, threatening to reverse years of painstaking progress and international cooperation. Despite the fact that the United States is historically the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, under Trump’s leadership, it is poised to abandon its moral and practical responsibilities in combating the climate crisis. Trump’s skepticism about climate change, which he describes as a “hoax,” signifies a dangerous regression in American climate policy. His commitment to withdraw from the Paris Agreement for the second time, and possibly exit the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change entirely, could deal a devastating blow to global climate diplomacy.
This regression comes at a critical juncture as the world is already struggling to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Consequently, the repercussions of Trump’s victory extend beyond the borders of the United States, with particularly dire consequences for developing countries and vulnerable communities on the frontlines of the climate crisis. Furthermore, potential cuts to international climate funding and resistance to ambitious emission reduction targets by his administration threaten to exacerbate existing inequalities, leaving those with the least responsibility for climate change to bear its heavy burdens.
This article seeks to explore how Trump’s climate agenda may exacerbate existing challenges, particularly in Africa, and what that implies for the continent’s future.
Trump’s Climate Position:
Donald Trump has been, and remains, an outspoken skeptic of climate change, labeling it a “scam,” and suggesting that concerns about rising sea levels are exaggerated. Thus, his administration’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in 2017 was a clear indicator of his climate policy vision, prioritizing short-term economic gains over long-term environmental sustainability. During his first term, Trump rolled back numerous regulations aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, favoring the fossil fuel industry and undermining global efforts to combat climate change. For instance, in 2020, the Brookings Institution documented 74 actions taken by Trump’s administration that weakened environmental protections in the United States, largely driven by his “Energy First” plan, which consisted of a package to rescue and empower the U.S. fossil fuel value chain. These measures included reopening coal mines, removing restrictions on oil drilling, and easing climate and environmental regulations.
In his recent statements during the presidential race, Trump reiterated his belief that climate change is not an urgent issue for the United States, claiming that “the ocean will lower by a hundred parts per inch over the next 400 years.” Such statements reflect a fundamental misunderstanding of the urgency of climate action and its global implications. As Trump prepares for a potential withdrawal from international agreements once again, the consequences for regions already grappling with climate impacts—such as Africa—could be severe.
Policy Changes:
Trump’s return to the presidency carries significant implications for climate change, especially regarding the role of the United States in global climate initiatives. His administration is expected to prioritize fossil fuel production, as outlined in the 2025 plan, which emphasizes “unleashing American energy production to lower energy prices”. This agenda includes plans to dismantle or downsize critical federal agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, both of which play vital roles in disaster management and climate-related research. Trump’s approach may reverse carbon removal policies, reduce public investments in climate research, and potentially withdraw from international commitments aimed at mitigating climate change. The consequences of such actions would be severe, especially for vulnerable regions like Africa, which is already experiencing severe climate impacts despite its minimal contribution to global emissions.
However, according to estimates by the Institute for Security Studies in South Africa, Trump’s climate policies are shaped by contradictory forces that may temper his pro-fossil fuel positions. Locally, the economic gains from the Inflation Reduction Act, which drives investment in clean energy, cannot be ignored. By 2050, the Inflation Reduction Act is projected to yield 5trillioninglobaleconomicbenefits,reducepollution,improvehealthoutcomes,andcutgreenhousegasemissionsby435trillioninglobaleconomicbenefits,reducepollution,improvehealthoutcomes,andcutgreenhousegasemissionsby432.785 trillion and claimed nearly 17,000 lives since 1980. These realities, alongside the geopolitical necessity to decarbonize, are pushing global powers like Europe and China to prioritize green growth as a strategy for economic and strategic dominance. Additionally, the influence of figures like Elon Musk, a vocal advocate for low-carbon solutions and an ally of Trump, may increase the administration’s responsiveness. While Trump may initially push for fossil fuel-friendly policies and possibly withdraw from the Paris Agreement, economic and geopolitical realities might gradually nudge him towards cleaner energy policies.
African Climate Threats:
Africa is one of the continents most vulnerable to climate change, facing threats such as extreme weather events, rising temperatures, and food insecurity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned that without significant global efforts to reduce emissions, Africa could face severe droughts, floods, and heatwaves that threaten livelihoods and exacerbate poverty. The continent’s reliance on agriculture makes it particularly susceptible to climate fluctuations.
Many African nations depend on rain-fed agriculture, which has become increasingly unpredictable due to changing weather patterns. While Trump ignores the significance of climate change, African farmers are already witnessing the devastating impacts of erratic rainfall and prolonged droughts. For example, countries like Ethiopia and Sudan have faced recurrent droughts leading to crop failures and food shortages.
Furthermore, Trump’s potential retreat from U.S. funding for international climate initiatives could hinder critical support for African nations working to adapt to these challenges. Historically, the United States has played an important role in funding climate resilience projects across the continent. Therefore, cuts to aid could leave many countries without the resources needed to implement adaptation strategies or invest in sustainable infrastructure.
On the economic front, Trump’s pro-fossil fuel stance could have broader implications for Africa. The continent is rich in renewable energy potential—from solar power in the Sahara to wind energy along its coasts—but it requires investment and technology transfer from developed countries to effectively harness these resources. However, Trump’s focus on expanding fossil fuel production in the United States may hinder international cooperation on renewable energy initiatives. Additionally, if Trump fulfills his promise to withdraw from international agreements like the Paris Agreement again, it could undermine global commitments to emission reductions and support for clean energy transitions. This would be particularly harmful for African nations striving to meet their own climate goals while balancing developmental needs.
A Risky Future:
If Donald Trump begins his second term—as promised—with a clear anti-climate agenda, the consequences for Africa and other regions most affected by climate change will be profound. His dismissal of climate change as an urgent issue threatens not only U.S. domestic policy but also global efforts to combat one of humanity’s most pressing challenges. For Africa—already grappling with severe vulnerabilities—the potential withdrawal of international support could exacerbate existing crises related to food security, water scarcity, and economic instability. While Trump’s rhetoric may signal a bleak future for global climate action, it also presents an opportunity for other countries to reaffirm their commitment to sustainability and resilience. Addressing climate change undoubtedly requires collective action that transcends political shifts; it is crucial for leaders worldwide to prioritize cooperation over isolationist tendencies. Ultimately, Africa’s future will depend on its ability to adapt to changing conditions while advocating for equitable solutions on the global stage. As we all face an uncertain future shaped by narrow political decisions, we must remain committed to protecting our planet and its most vulnerable populations; for when it comes to climate change, it truly is a problem that concerns us all.
