On October 27, 2024, Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili (affiliated with Western-aligned opposition parties) declared her rejection of the parliamentary election results, in which the ruling party, Georgian Dream (pro-Russia), won approximately 54% of the votes. She implicitly accused Moscow of interfering in the election process in her country and called on the European Union and the United States to support demonstrations organized by the opposition in protest against the results. She also urged Washington to conduct a comprehensive investigation into allegations of electoral fraud in Georgia, which was rejected by Moscow and welcomed by the ruling party, which pledged to implement its electoral program and work towards joining the European Union—similar to the aspirations of the opposition parties—by 2030. However, the latter insisted on rejecting the election results, signaling a rise in confrontations between the ruling party and the opposition that could impact the country’s stability, reflecting the competition between Moscow and Washington for influence in Georgia and the Caucasus amid current geopolitical changes.
Multiple Dimensions
Analysts have described the parliamentary elections in Georgia, held on October 26, 2024, to select all 150 members of Parliament, as the most significant since the country’s independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, given the intense competition and polarization between pro-European Union parties seeking swift EU and NATO membership to protect the country from potential Russian aggression and the ruling party advocating closer ties with Russia to prevent a repeat of the Ukrainian scenario. This comes despite Russia having waged a war against Georgia in 2008, which resulted in the secession of the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, controlled by Moscow-aligned governments, which Russia later recognized as independent. The election results elicited multiple reactions, summarized below:
Ruling Party’s Welcome of Election Victory: On the evening of Election Day, October 26, 2024, Georgian Central Election Commission Chairman Giorgi Kaladze announced that the ruling party, Georgian Dream, received 54.09% of the votes compared to 37.58% for opposition parties, with a voter turnout of 58.94%, representing over 2 million voters across 3,044 polling stations domestically and 67 stations overseas. This outcome grants the ruling party 91 seats in the 150-seat parliament, qualifying it to form a new government independently. The founder of Georgian Dream, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, welcomed his party’s victory, describing it as the best performance since 2012 and a good indicator of the Georgian people’s talent, committing to fulfilling all electoral promises and forming the government promptly.
Opposition’s Rejection of Election Results: On October 27, 2024, President Zourabichvili accused the ruling party, Georgian Dream, of electoral fraud and announced her non-recognition of the results, asserting that the elections were completely manipulated. In a conference attended by opposition leaders, she implicitly accused Russia of interfering in the election results and conducting a “special Russian operation,” which she described as a form of hybrid warfare against her people—claims that Moscow denied. Zourabichvili emphasized that many were prevented from voting due to the confiscation of their identification documents, and citizens abroad were also barred from voting, with only 33,000 out of an estimated 100,000 migrants able to participate.
It is noteworthy that the Georgian opposition bases its claims of electoral fraud on multiple polls and previous studies, all of which predicted an opposition victory, showing that 80% of voters wished to join the European Union.
Opposition’s Shift to Political Escalation: The capital city of Tbilisi witnessed massive demonstrations on the evening of October 28, 2024, called by the country’s president and involving several opposition parties, including the United National Movement, the Alliance for Change, and Strong Georgia. According to Zourabichvili, the protests aimed to contest the election results, defend constitutional rights, and call for free and fair future elections.
Also, Nana Malashkhia from the Alliance for Change announced this party’s relinquishment of seats won in the elections, stating that the Alliance would not occupy its parliamentary seats due to suspicions of election fraud and would not legitimize the alleged theft of Georgian citizens’ votes. For her part, United National Movement leader Tina Bokuchava confirmed that the election results were fraudulent, while opposition party leader Dan Nika Gvaramia referred to the election results as a “constitutional coup.” Opposition parties continued to protest until fresh elections are held, raising concerns about the onset of a new phase of instability, political upheaval, and security chaos in the country.
European Criticism of the Electoral Process: Some observers from the OSCE and NATO criticized the conduct of the electoral process in Georgia, issuing a report stating that “the voting was marred by inequality among candidates due to pressures and tensions,” and accusing the ruling party of several violations, including providing “election bribes” to buy votes, “stuffing ballot boxes,” and “physical assaults” on monitors. Georgia’s election commission announced it received 133 complaints relating to violations of voting secrecy, incidents outside polling stations, obstruction of monitors, and clashes at some polling places in Tbilisi. Spanish MEP Antonio Lopez-Isturis White described the events as a regression of democracy in Georgia.
U.S. Call for Investigation into Election Results: Following the announcement of Georgia’s parliamentary election results, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken issued a statement calling for a “thorough investigation into reports of violations during the electoral process, as well as isolated acts of violence.” He clarified that both domestic and international observers agreed that “there were electoral violations, despite the elections being organized; they were not free and fair,” revealing reports of “the Georgian Dream party’s misuse of public funds, vote buying, and voter intimidation,” which disrupted electoral competition and raised doubts about the results. Blinken urged the country’s leaders to respect the rule of law, reject any laws that restrict freedoms, and reform the electoral process, linking Georgia’s EU and NATO membership aspirations to the fulfillment of these standards.
Geopolitical Implications
It can be inferred that the results of the parliamentary elections in Georgia, won by the ruling party, will have implications extending beyond local borders to regional and even international levels, as Georgia is one of the South Caucasus countries competing for influence between Moscow and Washington. Broadly, the main potential implications of the elections are as follows:
Trend Towards Enhanced One-Party Rule: The victorious Georgian Dream party will seek to consolidate its rule through various means, tightening its grip on all state institutions and replicating the governance model of Belarus by enacting more laws restricting freedoms. Among these are laws on “foreign agents,” “transparency of foreign influence,” and “protection of family values” adopted in mid-2023, leading to heightened tensions between it and opposition parties. The ruling party may also restrict the operation of the Georgian Orthodox Church by declaring its subordination to the Russian Orthodox Church, which opposition parties also oppose.
It is worth noting that the Foreign Agents Law sparked controversy before its passage in July by the Georgian parliament, dominated by the ruling party, facing opposition due to being “restrictive of media freedoms and anti-democratic.” The law forces non-governmental organizations and media platforms in Georgia receiving a fifth or more of their funding from abroad to register as “entities seeking to advance the interests of a foreign power,” with around 10,000 such organizations estimated in Georgia.
Efforts to Suppress the Opposition: The ruling Georgian Dream party pledged during its election campaign to ban the largest opposition party, the United National Movement, should it win the elections. This would require the party to secure more than 113 seats to amend the constitution. Despite winning the elections, it only secured 91 seats, prompting the party to possibly ally with smaller parties to achieve this proportion and initiate constitutional amendments aimed at tightening restrictions on opposition parties or banning their political activities. Furthermore, the ruling party may pursue legal action against the leaders of these opposition parties, previously hinting it would “hold opposition parties fully accountable under the law for war crimes committed against the people of Georgia,” without clarifying what these crimes were, when they were committed, or who committed them.
Stalled EU Membership Aspirations: Over the past several years, a trend has emerged in Georgia towards developing relations with the European Union and NATO. The winning party has committed to achieving EU membership by 2030; however, it has not welcomed the idea of NATO membership due to fears of Russian backlash and a repeat of the Ukrainian scenario in Georgia. Therefore, the victory of Georgian Dream may impact Tbilisi’s chances of joining the EU, especially following tensions in recent months after the passage of the Foreign Agents Law. The multiple European criticisms of the electoral process further confirm that the EU is unlikely to accept Georgia’s membership at least in the near future.
Strengthening Ties with Russia: The Georgian Dream party advocates for enhanced relations with Russia to prevent any aggression towards Georgia. The ruling party may subsequently orient its foreign policies to achieve this after winning elections, considering it campaigned under the slogan of “keeping the country away from the war in Ukraine,” rejecting sanctions against Russia, and warning against collapse of its economy due to sanctions imposed on Russia due to the interconnectedness of the two countries.
Consequently, it is anticipated that the ruling Georgian Dream party will strive to enter into additional trade agreements with Moscow and refrain from extending any support to Ukraine. In contrast, Moscow welcomed the ruling party’s victory and the electoral process and denied any attempts to interfere in Georgia’s parliamentary elections. Instead, it accused Western countries of imposing “dictates on the Georgian people,” urging that external powers not be allowed to intervene in Georgia’s national sovereignty, which compelled Zourabichvili to warn against “the consequences of Georgia’s dependence on Russia” and called on both Brussels and Washington to defend Georgia and its future, as well as the geopolitical balance in the Caucasus, by supporting the Georgian people (referring to opposition parties). This foreshadows a looming phase of geopolitical competition between Russia and the U.S. over Georgia, leading to instability within the country.
Cooperation Between Tbilisi and the Separatist Regions: Opposition parties adopt an anti-Russia stance due to its occupation of two regions since 2008, which constitute one-fifth of Georgia’s territory (Abkhazia and South Ossetia).
In contrast, the ruling party supports engaging with these regions, which it will likely pursue since it will not oppose the Russian military presence there, considering that Russia established a naval base in Abkhazia on the Black Sea. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused Western countries of trying “to exacerbate the situation and destabilize” relations between Abkhazia and South Ossetia and Georgia to open a second front against Russia, which Georgia rejected.
Nonetheless, Tbilisi is expected to work on enhancing economic cooperation with both the separatist regions and Moscow, given that Georgia’s economy heavily relies on the Russian economy. Therefore, the ruling party will likely seek to ensure Moscow’s satisfaction and discuss settlements regarding the status of the separatist regions or create a new self-governance formula for them.
Enhancing Regional Cooperation in the Caucasus: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán (close to Moscow) praised the “decisive” victory of the ruling Georgian party and announced a visit to Tbilisi from October 28 to 29, 2024, to express support. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev congratulated Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and the ruling party on their victory. Notably, around 300,000 Azerbaijanis in Georgia voted for the ruling party, supporting stability and development in the region, accounting for about 7-8% of the total votes.
The ruling party in Georgia is anticipated to strengthen regional cooperation with Caucasus countries and the “3+3” group (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia – Russia, Turkey, Iran), which meets annually to discuss security, stability in the South Caucasus, and enhancing economic cooperation among its member states.
This group, led by Russia, seeks to counter U.S. efforts to enhance influence in the region. Under the leadership of the winning ruling party, Georgia may enhance its collaboration with this group and potentially join the BRICS group, also led by Russia, should the EU reject the resumption of its membership negotiations.
Tension in Georgia-U.S. Relations: In July 2024, Washington announced the postponement of joint military maneuvers with Georgia amid the ruling party’s accusations against Washington of pressuring Tbilisi “to open a second front against Russia,” revealing that “Washington was involved in two coup attempts against the ruling party,” which has led to heightened tension between the two countries. This discord intensified with U.S. objections to Georgia’s enactment of the Foreign Agents Law and its current doubts about parliamentary election results, indicating that relations between Washington and Tbilisi are heading towards further tension, particularly if the ruling party uses violence against Western-aligned opposition parties.
On the other hand, Washington is often accused of preparing for a “new color revolution” in Georgia to overturn the ruling party, especially following the recent election results. This could lead to increased tension between them, possibly culminating in the severing of diplomatic relations and enhancing U.S. support for opposition parties against the ruling party.
Future Prospects
From the above, we conclude that the results of the parliamentary elections in Georgia have reinforced Russian influence in the South Caucasus, where Moscow maintains strong ties with Georgia and Azerbaijan, while Armenia leans towards alignment with the West. Consequently, the Georgian opposition has two options: first, to accept the election results, or second, to continue protest and demand their annulment until they are repeated. This scenario, however, hinges on garnering European and American support and increasing international pressure on the ruling party in Georgia—an outcome that may not transpire as the opposition hopes due to Russian support for the ruling party.
Hence, confrontations between the opposition and the ruling party are expected to persist in the coming period, especially if the opposition opts to escalate its stance, reject the election results, and boycott sessions of the new parliament and government formation. Depending on the outcomes of these confrontations, the division of influence in the Caucasus between Moscow and Washington will be determined, reflecting positively and negatively on developments in the Ukrainian war.