Circle of Violence: Why Are Armed Conflicts Increasing Worldwide?

The world is witnessing a concerning resurgence of armed conflicts and civil wars in various regions. Several factors, such as climate change, religious extremism, and foreign intervention, are exacerbating these conflicts and making them more deadly. The Economist published a report on April 17, 2023, titled “Forgotten Conflicts: The Deadliest Wars Last Year Were Not in Ukraine,” highlighting the following points:

Bloody Conflicts

The report discusses the major armed conflicts occurring globally, aside from the Ukrainian war:

Three Successive Waves of Civil Wars Since 1945:

The focus on the rivalry among major powers like the US, Russia, and China has worsened conflicts in other parts of the world. The number of displaced people has doubled in the past decade, reaching nearly 100 million. Despite a decline in global poverty rates, the number of people in desperate need of emergency aid has doubled since 2020 to 340 million, with about 80% of this number attributed to conflicts, according to the International Rescue Committee (IRC).

Since 1945, conflicts have occurred in three overlapping waves: the struggle for independence, the fight among competing groups to control newly independent states, and the Cold War, which increased risks with the West supporting insurgencies against governments claiming to be Marxist, while the Soviet Union backed anti-capitalist gangs and revolutionary regimes. After the Soviet Union’s collapse, the number of wars decreased sharply, but a third wave began after 2011 with the Arab Spring igniting conflicts in the Middle East and a new form of jihadism spreading across the Islamic world. Vladimir Putin also revived old Russian imperialism.

Armed Conflict in Sudan Between the Army and the Rapid Support Forces:

• Conflict can only erupt if someone chooses to start fighting. In Sudan, two clear opponents are fighting for control of Africa’s third-largest country: General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the de facto ruler of Sudan and head of the military council, and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Hemedti,” leading the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. Both sides in Sudan have significant ambitions. The military already has a vast business empire, and Hemedti has amassed wealth from gold mines and selling military services to foreign countries. Neither seems willing to share power, each viewing the other as a criminal. However, Sudan’s woes are not solely their fault, as the country has endured civil wars most of the time since its independence in 1956.

The Ethiopian Conflict Considered the Deadliest Last Year:

• Comfort Ero, head of the International Crisis Group, pointed out that the deadliest war last year was in Ethiopia, not Ukraine. Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who helped broker a peace deal in November between the government and the rebellious Tigray region, estimated the death toll at 600,000 from 2020 to 2022, surpassing estimates for Ukraine. Even if the peace agreement holds, it won’t help because the massacre in Ethiopia was part of a separate ongoing conflict. Ethiopia has over 90 ethnic groups, many leaders of which stir hatred to control one of the country’s 11 ethnic regions. The neighboring dictatorship in Eritrea has sent armies to fight against a former Ethiopian government and alongside the current one, creating a vicious cycle of war.

Growing Conflicts in the African Sahel Region:

• The Sahel, a vast arid region below the Sahara, saw five countries (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Niger, and northern Nigeria) suffer from droughts in 2022, the worst food crisis in 20 years, and severe flooding affecting nearly 6 million people. Around 24 million people in these countries face food insecurity. In one sub-region of Mali, the IRC reported at least 70 conflicts in late 2021, half over land and a third over water. In this desperate environment, jihadist groups have risen, promising justice where official courts barely function, but once they gain a foothold, they quickly dismantle state authority. For example, the number of schools closed due to violence in these five countries tripled from 2020 to 2022. Government efforts to suppress jihadists often worsen the situation.

Continued Bloody Civil War in Myanmar:

• Myanmar exemplifies the issues that perpetuate civil wars. It is home to some of the world’s oldest and newest rebellions. The conflict is incredibly complex, involving the People’s Defense Force (PDF), formed after the military coup in 2021, as the armed wing of the National Unity Government, a parallel state of activists, politicians, and ethnic leaders aiming to restore democracy.
• Around 200 armed groups may control parts of the land or fight to overthrow the government, some seeking autonomy for large ethnic groups, others local militias defending single villages. Climate change has a role here too; rebellion gained strength in the central region impoverished by drought, and crime provides many fighters with reasons to continue fighting. The military is heavily involved in heroin and jade smuggling, along with some ethnic militias. Thus, the country hasn’t seen a conflict-free year since independence in 1948.

Various Reasons

The report highlights several reasons for the prolonged and complex nature of conflicts, particularly the role of external factors:

Complex and Overlapping Causes of Civil Wars:

• Modern armed conflicts, usually civil wars involving foreign intervention, are hard to understand. They largely occur in poor countries, especially hot ones like Sudan, causing millions of deaths. Civil wars impoverish places rapidly, reducing per capita income by one-fifth over five years, according to Christopher Blattman of the University of Chicago in his book “Why We Fight?” Thus, it’s worrying that wars last longer.

Fueling Religious Extremism and Eroding International Conflict Norms:

• Various plausible reasons extend conflicts, including the erosion of global norms. When Russia, a permanent UN Security Council member, violated the UN Charter by invading Ukraine, it showed the weakness of international rules. China, another permanent member, calling Putin a dear friend despite war crimes charges, encouraged smaller rebels. In Sudan, no one has been held accountable for mass killings during its various wars. Yet impunity isn’t the full story; other factors prolong conflicts, such as climate change fueling battles over water and land and spreading religious extremism.

External Interventions Prolonging Conflicts:

• Between 2001 and 2010, about five countries a year faced multiple simultaneous wars or insurgencies. Now, the number has reached 15. Sudan alone has conflicts in the east, west, and south. Complex wars are hard to end; finding a compromise for two parties isn’t enough, and dozens of armed groups may need to be appeased. Civil wars have also become international; in 1991, only 4% involved significant foreign troops, but by 2021, that number increased twelvefold to 48%, according to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program.

Decline of the US as Global Policeman:

• In the past decade, these conflicts have been partly driven by Washington’s retreat from its global policeman role, with mid-sized powers filling the void. Russia and Turkey contest Libya and Syria, while Saudi Arabia and Iran wage proxy wars in Yemen. In Sudan, Egypt supports General Burhan, while Hemedti is a friend of Russia. Foreign intervention can be benign, as in general peacekeeping, but foreign powers with specific agendas tend to make civil wars last longer and cost more lives.

Widening Conflicts Due to Climate Change:

• Climate change exacerbates chaos, not directly causing conflict but driving herders to move their hungry cattle further, often encroaching on lands claimed by competing ethnic groups. A review of 55 studies by Stanford University researchers found that a one standard deviation increase in local temperature raises the chance of group conflict by 11% compared to what it would be at a more normal temperature. Globally, around 24 million people were displaced by extreme weather in 2021, a figure expected to rise according to the UN. In Sudan, about 3 million people were displaced by conflicts and natural disasters before the current round of fighting began.

Close Ties Between Conflict and Organized Crime:

• For rebel groups without a religious motive, money is a sufficient incentive to fight. James Fearon of Stanford University found that civil wars involving a major rebel force making money from drugs or illegal minerals tend to last longer. Government forces can be equally greedy. Haiti exemplifies extreme links between crime and conflict; in 2021, its president Jovenel Moïse was assassinated, with suspected ties to drug trafficking. Since then, the country has descended into chaos, with gangs now controlling much of the capital. Prime Minister Ariel Henry pleads for foreign military intervention to help the police restore order, but Haitian opposition groups fear such intervention would only bolster Henry, seen widely as illegitimate since Moïse’s death.

Stalled Peace Efforts and a Deadlocked UN Security Council:

• Global peace efforts have faltered because two veto-wielding Security Council members are major human rights violators. Russia used its veto 23 times in the past decade, blocking resolutions to allow more aid to Syria, investigate war crimes in the Balkans, and support Ukraine’s sovereignty. China used its veto nine times, while the US used it three times, mostly to protect Israel. France and the UK haven’t used theirs at all. Between 2001 and 2010, when Putin’s imperial ambitions were limited, and Xi Jinping wasn’t yet in power, Russia vetoed four times and China twice.

Conclusion

The report concludes with various ideas on ending wars, such as initiating talks between warring parties. Additionally, involving more women and civil society groups in

the peace process is crucial, accepting that any peace agreement is likely to be imperfect. David Miliband, head of the IRC, notes that excluding disliked groups from politics doesn’t work, citing the mistake of purging all Saddam Hussein supporters from the Iraqi army and trying to build a system in Afghanistan without the Taliban. However, significant actions like building effective states and mitigating climate change may take decades to implement.

The world’s deadliest war last year wasn’t in Ukraine, The Economist, April 17, 2023.