China’s Policies and Mechanisms to Establish Its Presence in the Pacific Islands

The increasing engagement of China in the Pacific Islands indicates a significant shift in the regional balance of power, reflecting a facet of the broader geostrategic competition between China and the United States, along with its traditional allies in the region, particularly Australia and New Zealand. China seeks to solidify its presence in the area and challenge traditional Western influence through its economic tools and by signing bilateral security agreements. In response, Western powers find themselves forced to reassess their strategic priorities in the region to counter this Chinese influence. This dynamic is redrawing the map of international relations in the Pacific, with implications for the future of global power balances in the Indo-Pacific region.

The visit of the Prime Minister of the Cook Islands, Mark Brown, to China in February 2025, and the signing of the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Action Plan 2025-2030” are the latest moves that highlight China’s determination to deepen its relationships with the Pacific Islands. This was followed by the Chinese navy conducting live ammunition exercises in the high seas southwest of the Pacific, in close proximity to Australia and New Zealand.

The Pacific Islands hold significant geopolitical and economic importance due to their strategic location at the heart of the ocean between Asia and America, and at the crossroads of global maritime trade. They serve as critical transit points in international supply chains, providing those with influence over them the ability to access vast maritime spaces, thereby enhancing naval and military presence in the Indo-Pacific region. Their location also gives them growing importance amid international competition for maritime resources and dominance over shipping lanes, as well as their potential role in monitoring military and commercial movements in the Pacific, which explains the increasing interest from both China and the United States, and other powers, in deepening relations with these island nations.

Pacific Islands also include economically important exclusive economic zones, acknowledged for their rich natural resources and growing economic potentials. They comprise a variety of countries and territories, rich in marine resources, including fisheries, which are vital to regional and global economies.

In this context, China’s strategic approach in the Pacific embodies its broader geostrategic agenda within major initiatives such as the “Belt and Road Initiative” and the “Global Security Initiative”, which are essential to efforts aimed at expanding its influence by deepening economic, political, and security ties with island nations.

Mechanism of Chinese Investments:

China’s investments in many Pacific Islands represent a noticeable expansion of its economic presence in the region, typically focused on vital infrastructure projects, including ports and roads, which not only enhance local economic capabilities but also solidify China’s strategic position as a major player in regional trade networks.

China has undertaken several strategic projects in some Pacific Islands; in the Solomon Islands, it financed and built a new national stadium in the capital “Honiara,” used in the 2023 Pacific Games, alongside executing infrastructure projects that include developing roads and healthcare centers.

In Fiji, China funded projects to improve water and electricity networks in rural areas and established a cultural center to promote cultural exchange and enhance China’s soft power. In Papua New Guinea, China contributed to upgrading the “Highlands Highway,” a major internal trade artery, and provided medical assistance during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In Tonga, China helped rebuild infrastructure damaged by Cyclone “Gita” in 2018, thereby strengthening Beijing’s image as a reliable partner in times of crisis. In Kiribati, China supported solar energy projects aimed at helping the country reduce its dependence on fossil fuels.

These projects reflect a calculated Chinese approach to earning the trust of island nations through development and cooperation tools, aligning with its broader strategy to enhance influence at the crossroads of global maritime trade, paving the way for deeper partnerships in the future.

Mechanism of Security Cooperation:

China is gradually attempting to establish a new order in the Pacific by creating new institutions and undermining existing ones, as part of its broader maritime policy aimed at enhancing its presence on the high seas and bypassing the first and second island chains to counter U.S. influence throughout the region, and to challenge traditional U.S., Australian, and New Zealand influence in the Pacific Islands.

Consequently, there are fears and warnings from these three countries and their Western and Asian allies that China is enhancing its maritime and security presence in the Pacific, negotiating for several years to establish dual-use projects and facilities in Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands, Kiribati, and Nauru. In 2022, China proposed a collective security agreement with the Pacific Islands, excluding New Zealand and Australia. Although this comprehensive regional agreement has not been formally signed yet, many of its conditions have been fulfilled on the ground, as China engages in a continuous, phased approach to cement its influence in these islands.

Security cooperation between China and the Pacific Islands has seen notable developments in recent years, with key agreements, such as the security pact between China and the Solomon Islands, representing a transformation in the region’s strategic landscape. This agreement, signed in 2022, permits China to deploy military forces to the Solomon Islands at the request of the government, raising concerns among Western powers about the potential establishment of a Chinese military presence in the region.

This agreement underscores China’s growing interest in enhancing its security cooperation with the Pacific Islands, leveraging diplomatic relations and strategic partnerships to expand its presence in an area historically dominated by Western allies. This cooperation extends beyond security agreements to include training and assistance in law enforcement; strengthening China’s role in the region’s defense infrastructure.

Undoubtedly, China’s growing security presence in the Pacific Islands will also impact the wider regional defense dynamics, as Pacific states face complex geopolitical pressures between traditional allies and new partners. Countries like Fiji, Papua New Guinea, the Cook Islands, and Niue have become increasingly significant players in regional defense forums, where China’s influence is often compared to traditional security frameworks led by the United States and its allies.

The participation of these countries in defense dialogues and multilateral security initiatives is essential for understanding the emerging balance of power in the Pacific. As China continues to expand its defense presence, Western nations may need to reassess their strategies and engagement in the region, adapting to a more multipolar security environment where the Pacific Islands play a critical role in determining the region’s stability in the future.

The Cook Islands as a Case Study:

The recent visit of Prime Minister Mark Brown of the Cook Islands to Beijing, resulting in the signing of the “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Action Plan for 2025-2030,” highlights a qualitative transformation in relations between China and the Cook Islands. It aims to strengthen economic and development cooperation through investing in infrastructure, supporting the blue economy, and developing natural resources. Both the Cook Islands and Niue signed a strategic partnership agreement with China in 2014 and a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement in 2018.

The joint action plan between China and the Cook Islands focuses on enhancing maritime and air connectivity between the two parties, thereby elevating the status of the Cook Islands as a regional logistics center, and expanding Chinese investments in tourism and renewable energy sectors, reflecting China’s economic ambitions in the region. Notably, the Cook Islands has an expansive maritime area of 2.2 million square kilometers, encompassing exclusive economic zones rich in rare minerals on the seafloor, such as cobalt, nickel, copper, and manganese, which are vital resources integral to technological and military industries.

In a statement released by Brown, he praised the partnership with the People’s Republic of China, stating: “China has remained steadfast in its support and contributions to the developmental priorities of the Cook Islands over the past 28 years. It has shown respect for the sovereignty of the Cook Islands and supported our ongoing and collective efforts to ensure the economic resilience of our people amid our varying vulnerabilities and the many global challenges we face in our time, including climate change and access to development financing.”

Although the signed memoranda of understanding with the action plan have not been published, the Cook Islands government stated that it “has established partnerships with the Chinese Ocean Sample Repository and the National Deep Sea Center, providing new expertise for its ongoing efforts in deep-sea exploration and sustainable ocean management.”

The government reported that discussions with China included plans to create a multi-use transportation center in the northern Cook Islands, along with other projects for transport and digital connectivity between the islands, and projects related to maritime infrastructure and disaster cooperation; allowing China to deploy military forces during these cases. The “Cook Islands Seabed Minerals Authority” indicated that it had discussions with the Chinese government regarding mineral exploration during Brown’s visit to China.

Potential Implications:

In light of the growing Chinese role in the Cook Islands and other Pacific Islands, the signing of the recent agreement has sparked waves of concern in Western capitals, notably New Zealand and Australia. The former views the step as a threat to its historical influence in islands with which it has close ties, while the latter sees the agreement as an additional component within a broader Chinese strategy aimed at enhancing its presence in the Pacific.

It is worth noting that the Cook Islands, which was part of New Zealand until the 1960s, is in a free association with New Zealand, which offers defense and foreign affairs support to the Cook Islands only at the specific request of the Cook Islands Government; a request that was not made when the recent action plan agreement was signed with China. Moreover, the residents of the Cook Islands use New Zealand passports, their currency is the New Zealand dollar, and over 94,000 residents of the Cook Islands live in New Zealand, with 28,000 in Australia, while fewer than 10,000 individuals reside in the Cook Islands itself.

Hence, some within the Cook Islands oppose the partnership agreement with China. About 400 protesters gathered outside the Cook Islands Parliament in the capital “Avarua” to protest the agreement reached by Prime Minister Mark Brown with China, which sparked a diplomatic dispute with New Zealand, displaying signs that read “Stay connected to New Zealand” and raised boards showing New Zealand passports in protest of Mark Brown’s later-abandoned proposal for issuing a separate passport for the Cook Islands, which New Zealand warned might compel holders to forfeit their New Zealand citizenship.

All of the above may compel Australia and New Zealand to amplify their economic and political support for the Cook Islands, through development projects or diplomatic initiatives, in a bid to reestablish their traditional presence and safeguard the region’s traditional balance. Meanwhile, the United States considers this step as an extension of China’s efforts to broaden its strategic influence in a region that represents a pivotal dimension in U.S. national security calculations, fearing that Chinese investments may be utilized in the future for security or military purposes; potentially prompting Washington to reinforce its defense and intelligence alliances and launch parallel economic initiatives in the region.

In the midst of this escalating geopolitical competition, it is anticipated that Western powers will reframe their strategies in the Pacific to confront the growing Chinese influence. More effective moves from the United States, Australia, and New Zealand are expected, with the “AUKUS” alliance—focused on defense information sharing and enhancing military capabilities—featuring Australia, the UK, and the United States as one of the prominent Western tools to balance China’s presence. Additionally, the “Pacific Island Forum” has emerged as a diplomatic platform leveraged by Western countries to expand security dialogue and ensure the continued Western influence in the region.