Both Republicans and Democrats do not disagree on viewing China as the nation with the will and means to change the “rules-based order,” a “unipolar” system that the United States has led alone since the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of the former Soviet Union on December 25, 1991. In the May 2010 issue of “Foreign Policy” magazine, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a Democrat, wrote an article titled “Pivot to Asia,” in which she clearly called for shifting the “political and diplomatic weight of the United States” from the Middle East to South Asia and its southeast, with the aim of thwarting China’s rapid growth in military and naval capabilities. On the other hand, Republican President Donald Trump was the first president to endorse a national security strategy that deemed China and Russia “strategic competitors” to the U.S. on the international stage, doing so on December 19, 2017. Current Democratic President Joe Biden followed Trump’s path in the U.S. national security strategy that was released on October 12, 2022, leading all—Republicans and Democrats—to agree that China and Russia aim to change the rules of American dominance that began with the end of World War II, which deepened with the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989. This clearly indicates that there is a general and strategic framework from both Republicans and Democrats when considering China.
However, a deeper examination of the plans and practical measures reveals a difference in how Kamala Harris and Donald Trump would approach China, whether regarding trade and economic issues or in how to build and expand U.S.-led “military alliances” against China in East and Southeast Asia. In China, some say that Trump is better for China because he focuses solely on trade issues and successfully brokered a massive $250 billion trade agreement with China in January 2020. Conversely, others argue that Kamala Harris is better for Beijing because her policies are more predictable, allowing for future plans to counter her. From this perspective, Trump is seen as a “president whose actions and words are unpredictable.” How will Donald Trump or Kamala Harris engage with China if either wins the election on November 5? To what extent can the vision of the Republican or Democratic Party lead to future peace or conflicts between Washington and Beijing?
Harris’s Vision
Kamala Harris’s approach to dealing with China will not differ significantly from the current plans and strategy of President Joe Biden, but it will likely be “more pragmatic” than before. Previously, in the Biden-Harris joint 2020 election platform, Harris, who had limited foreign experience, embraced the idea of “decoupling” the U.S. and Chinese economies. However, after nearly four years in the White House, she realized the difficulty—if not the impossibility—of “separating” the U.S. economy from China. Harris’s dealings with China could be based on several key tools:
First: Biotechnology
Democrats believe that the U.S.—and not anyone else—is the reason behind China’s economic and technological growth, stemming from the idea that the U.S. allowed a limited ceiling of technology to reach China, either through what is known as “reverse engineering” or through “economic espionage,” as Washington puts it. Under Biden and Harris’s leadership, Democrats believe it is time for China to be significantly “behind” the U.S. “technologically,” ensuring the U.S. and its industries remain stronger and better than China; thus, the U.S. has deprived China of much American technology over the past four years. In response, China has threatened to halt exports of rare earth materials to the U.S. as well. The U.S. has also pressured its European allies to stop cooperating with China in this vital area, and Harris has reiterated multiple times that she will continue the policy of preventing high-precision technology from reaching China from the U.S. and its allies.
Second: Diversifying Supply Chains
The Democratic Party’s slogan emphasizes the necessity of “diversifying supply chains,” especially concerning semiconductor and chip manufacturing. Accordingly, Harris stated she would support the opening of new chip and semiconductor factories in allied Asian countries, such as Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and India, to avoid American and Western dependency on China. Washington has adopted a political narrative emphasizing not to repeat the mistake of relying on Russia for gas, oil, coal, electricity, and uranium, leading to the idea of an “Indian corridor” to transport goods from India—rather than China—to Europe via the Middle East and Arab region.
Third: Human Rights Issues
One of the major topics that Harris is likely to leverage against China is the human rights file, especially if the new Senate composition includes more liberal and leftist members. The Democratic Party clearly advocates for exerting pressure on China regarding its treatment of the Tibetan and Xinjiang populations, as well as in Hong Kong. Recently, a committee was formed in the Senate to pressure China regarding the Tibetan and Xinjiang issues.
Fourth: Everyone is a Spy
In 2023, the rate of Chinese attempts to immigrate increased tenfold compared to 2022, raising concerns among Democrats about potential political motives behind this sharp rise in Chinese migrants to the U.S. American security agencies are also monitoring Chinese students studying at American universities, fearing they may have links to the Chinese military or the Communist Party of China. There are approximately 3.6 million Americans of Chinese descent, but U.S. authorities under Biden have frequently stated that the Communist Party of China, which has around 90 million members, sends followers to spy on the U.S. For this reason, Harris’s strategy regarding China focuses on tracking what Washington refers to as “Communist Party spies” within the United States.
Fifth: Freedom of Navigation
This is a slogan adopted by Washington to justify the passage of naval vessels and military aircraft carriers through the Taiwan Strait, which separates Taiwan from mainland China. This matter ties into the American Democratic Party’s support for arming Taiwan via the “lease and lend” law, alongside continuous visits from U.S. officials to Taiwan, notably the visit by the former Speaker of the House in August 2022. Taiwan received more military assistance during Biden’s presidency than under any previous U.S. president, and Harris has pledged to continue this policy towards Taiwan. The U.S. Senate voted in favor of sending military assistance worth $8 billion to Taiwan on April 24, as part of an aid package that included $61 billion for Ukraine and $24 billion for Israel.
Sixth: Expanding Alliances
Harris asserts that she will continue Biden’s policy of supporting Asian military and economic alliances, including the AUKUS alliance, which includes the U.S., the UK, and Australia, established on September 21, 2021, and the Quad alliance that includes India, Japan, Australia, and the United States. Harris would also support security and military alliances with Pacific island nations, Vietnam, the Philippines, and South Korea.
Trump’s Strategy
First: Peace Supported by Power
Trump’s strategy in dealing with the Chinese is based on the belief that “peace is supported by power.” Therefore, Trump would work to strengthen the U.S. military and intelligence capabilities with all meanings and terms of power, focusing on modernizing nuclear warheads and enhancing U.S. presence in the Arctic, ensuring American hegemony in space.
Second: Confrontation Begins at Home
Trump firmly believes that China seeks to control American institutions and assets; hence, he raised the slogan “Confront China from within America first,” meaning to prevent any Chinese acquisition of assets within the United States. This was exemplified by Trump’s insistence on China relinquishing “TikTok,” seeing it as a tool for Chinese espionage against Americans.
Third: Adjusting the Balance of Trade
Trump aims to replicate his success from January 2020 when he signed the first part of a trade agreement with China. His foremost concern regarding China is improving the trade balance and ensuring a larger volume of American goods enters Chinese markets. He perceives a significant imbalance in U.S.-China trade, with China exporting about $450 billion worth of goods to the U.S. annually, while U.S. exports to China amount to less than $250 billion. This issue is related to Trump’s desire to encourage American companies operating in China to return to work in the U.S. in exchange for imposing more tariff barriers on Chinese imports.
Fourth: Artificial Intelligence
Browsing through the Republican candidate’s campaign platform reveals Trump’s interest in competing with China in the field of artificial intelligence and the necessity for the U.S. to maintain its technological advantage, which underpins its economic and military superiority. This concern ties into Trump’s engagement with cryptocurrency, emphasizing that the U.S. must outpace China in this vital area.
Whether Trump or Harris wins, there is a consensus on competing with China in all fields. However, the more critical aspect is that this competition does not escalate into conflict or war, as such an outcome is untenable for the world.