In the midst of the current tensions in Lebanon resulting from the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, France is attempting to play a political and diplomatic role rooted in its historical relationship with Lebanon since the end of the French mandate in 1946. France has regarded itself as the patron and protector of Lebanon; however, its attempts to intervene have become increasingly weak. One of the most significant challenges it faces in playing an effective role in the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel is the substantial U.S. influence in the region, as the United States consistently sides with Israel, limiting France’s impact.
Consequently, the French stance regarding the ongoing conflict between Hezbollah and Israel reflects its relative lack of influence compared to other global powers, particularly the United States. Despite France’s efforts to act as a mediator by urging Israel to exercise restraint and offering humanitarian assistance to Lebanon amounting to ten million euros, these efforts do not reach the levels necessary to effectively halt escalation or impose a real ceasefire.
Recurring Challenges:
Despite these challenges, a noticeable change in France’s tone has emerged, as it had previously leaned toward supporting Israel in regional conflicts. However, with the escalation of conflict in Lebanon and the fear of it becoming a full-scale war, France has begun adopting a more balanced language, as the stability of Lebanon has become an urgent and strategic priority for France—not only because of its historical ties but also due to the large French community residing there.
In this context of change, France and the United States launched a joint initiative for a 21-day ceasefire along the Lebanese-Israeli border. However, this move followed intense bombardment from Israel that resulted in the deaths and displacement of thousands of Lebanese. French President Emmanuel Macron stated during a Paris conference held on October 24, 2024, that the continuation of the conflict in Lebanon could lead to the complete destruction of the Lebanese state, deepening the political vacuum Lebanon is suffering from. On this basis, Macron confirmed his commitment to providing substantial humanitarian support to Lebanon and strengthening the Lebanese army as a key structure contributing to stability amidst the current political paralysis, by supplying it with aid worth up to 200 million dollars. In this context, Macron also directed a stern message to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by describing Israel’s actions in Lebanon as “barbaric.” Thus, it can be said that France is following a pragmatic approach aimed at mitigating the negative impacts of the ongoing clashes on Lebanese territory, by creating a military balance that enables the Lebanese army to assert its control over its territory and reduces Hezbollah’s influence, which Israel considers a direct threat to its security, amid a noticeable escalation in French rhetoric toward Israel.
It is worth noting that Hezbollah faces unprecedented challenges amid the escalating crisis with Israel, as the party is under increasing pressure to maintain its deterrent capacity while simultaneously avoiding engagement in a full-scale war that could have dire consequences for Lebanon and weaken its internal control. Consequently, this reflects a structural crisis for Hezbollah, as it finds itself with limited options between continuing its regional struggle against Israel and maintaining internal stability in Lebanon.
The party also faces criticism and public discontent even from its traditional allies, such as former Lebanese President Michel Aoun. Many view Hezbollah as now a burden on Lebanon after it decided to open a second front against Israel in support of Hamas, considering this move an ill-conceived “adventure” that has had adverse effects on the Lebanese people. However, this does not deny that the party still receives support from some Lebanese factions and groups, particularly the “Fajr Forces,” the military wing of the Sunni Islamic group in Lebanon, which has announced its support and military engagement alongside Hezbollah in the conflict against Israel.
Additionally, the party also faces an uncertain future, with the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah being a serious blow to Hezbollah—one of the worst in its history—leaving it in a vacuum that cannot be easily filled. This is especially true since Nasrallah managed to maintain the party’s unity and cohesion through critical crises that began with the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon in 2005, resulting in a stronger Hezbollah influence over political life and creating tension within the Lebanese sectarian system.
However, despite significant losses and the depletion of most of the party’s central leadership, Hezbollah has shown its ability to continue fighting and carrying out military operations, with reports indicating that the party maintains a massive arsenal, including approximately 200,000 rockets. Nevertheless, the party may face a real challenge if Iranian support diminishes, given that Iran is currently experiencing increasing pressures on various fronts, making funding Hezbollah a risky endeavor, thus raising questions about the party’s fate and its future direction.
Scenarios for the Day After:
In this context, several scenarios for the French role emerge should military operations between Israel and Hezbollah cease. The first scenario includes France’s efforts to reshape the Lebanese political system by reducing Hezbollah’s role in the power equation and integrating it into state institutions, thereby disarming it and incorporating it into the Lebanese army. In this framework, France aims to restructure the army, increase its numbers, and enhance its capabilities so that it becomes the main armed force in Lebanon, replacing Hezbollah’s military power. This aligns with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which seeks to curb Hezbollah’s activities and presence south of the Litani River and replace it with the army. This is the likely scenario, as Hezbollah has faced substantial criticism and lost a significant portion of its popularity following its involvement in the conflict with Israel.
The second scenario is the most probable if Hezbollah refuses to disarm, leading France to adopt a stricter approach aimed at undermining Hezbollah’s influence through political pressure and international isolation. This may involve calls for strict international sanctions against the party. Additionally, France may work in partnership with EU countries to pressure Iran to reduce its military and logistical support for Hezbollah.
In any case, Hezbollah’s fate is now linked not only to the continuity of its military structure but also to its ability to adapt to changing conditions and face regional and international challenges that are reshaping the balance of power in the region. Complicating the scene further, Israel carried out a military response against Iran on October 26, 2024, targeting Iranian missile manufacturing facilities and air defense systems, reflecting a strategy aimed at neutralizing Iran’s military capabilities, which may limit its ability to support Hezbollah.
references
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)[2]( PatrickWintour, and Andrew Roth. “France and US Push for 21-Day Hezbollah-Israel Ceasefire in Lebanon as UN Chief Warns ‘Hell Is Breaking Loose.’” The Guardian, September 26, 2024. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/26/lebanon-temporary-ceasefire-plan-hezbollah-israel.
)[3](Patrick, Wintour. “Macron Warns Netanyahu against ‘sowing Barbarism’ in Remarks on Lebanon.” The Guardian, October 24, 2024. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/24/macron-opens-conference-ceasefire-lebanon-israel.
)[4](Maha, Yahya. “Hezbollah Is in a Bind.” carnegie endowment for international peace, September 25, 2024. https://carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/diwan/2024/09/hezbollah-is-in-a-bind?lang=en.
)[5](Suohayb, Jawhar. “Quwwat Al-Fajr and Hezbollah: Unlikely Allies against Israel – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, June 11, 2024. https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/2024/06/quwwat-al-fajr-and-hezbollah-unlikely-allies-against-israel?lang=en.
)[6](Bilal Y., Saab “Hezbollah Faces an Uncertain Future after the Assassination…” CHATHAM HOUSE, October 1, 2024. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/10/hezbollah-faces-uncertain-future-after-assassination-hassan-nasrallah.
)[7](Paul, MILLAR. “Israel’s Attacks Have Devastated Hezbollah. How Is It Still Fighting Back?” France 24, October 25, 2024. https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20241024-israel-s-attacks-have-devastated-hezbollah-how-is-it-still-fighting-back.
)[8](Bilal Y., Saab“Hezbollah Faces an Uncertain Future after the Assassination…” CHATHAM HOUSE, October 1, 2024. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/10/hezbollah-faces-uncertain-future-after-assassination-hassan-nasrallah.
)[9](Patrick, Wintour. “Macron Warns Netanyahu against ‘sowing Barbarism’ in Remarks on Lebanon.” The Guardian, October 24, 2024. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/24/macron-opens-conference-ceasefire-lebanon-israel.
)[10](Helen, Regan. “Israel Launched Strikes on Iran in a Retaliatory Attack. Here’s What We Know.” CNN, October 26, 2024. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/26/middleeast/israel-strikes-iran-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html.
