Challenges Ahead for Claudia Sheinbaum: What Are the Chances of Success for Mexico’s New President in Managing Governance?

Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate from the ruling leftist party Morena, took the oath of office in Congress this October, becoming the first female president in Mexico’s history, which spans over 200 years as an independent nation. She assumed office after a resounding victory in June, where nearly 35.5 million Mexicans, around 60% of the voters, supported her, making her election the most successful in terms of votes received by any president in Mexico’s history, winning in 31 out of 32 states.

Sheinbaum’s victory came 70 years after women achieved the right to vote in Mexico. The 62-year-old former mayor of Mexico City campaigned with promises to continue protecting and expanding the distinctive initiatives of her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018–2024). Her platform included pledges to reduce the costs of gas and food, expand cash transfer programs for women and children, support commercial investment, and focus on housing and passenger train construction.

However, some observers argue that Sheinbaum will be able to establish her own governing style, diverging from her predecessor and political mentor, due to her reliance on science and data rather than populist trends and policies. Regardless of the continuity or change in the new president’s approach, she will have to address numerous complex issues that may shape her administration’s future and governing capability.

Key Issues

During her presidential campaign, Sheinbaum outlined her major proposals and plans in her electoral program and elaborated on some of these in greater detail during the early days of her administration:

Continuation of López Obrador’s Fourth Transformation Policies: This comprises a package of eighteen constitutional amendments proposed earlier this year, which include increasing the minimum wage above the inflation rate and electing all members of the judiciary through popular vote. These policies aim for a social and political restructuring in Mexico to empower the economically marginalized; however, critics argue that they undermine democracy and diminish the independence of electoral and oversight institutions.

Adherence to the “Hugs, Not Bullets” Approach to Crime:

Mexico continues to face a growing influence from organized crime groups and a significant rise in murder rates, with up to 30,000 people killed annually since 2018, according to the Council on Foreign Relations based in New York. Reports indicate more than 45,000 missing individuals, presumed dead in the last six years. The country also sees a rising number of female homicides, likely a top priority for Sheinbaum. López Obrador questioned the statistics, claiming they were exaggerated to damage him politically. His strategy was “hugs, not bullets,” which aimed to provide government assistance and social programs to improve the living conditions of the working class, rendering criminal gangs less appealing to young recruits. Despite experts asserting this initiative has not mitigated drug-related violence, it may remain in place since Sheinbaum committed to not waging a war against organized crime but instead addressing the social causes that lead many Mexican youths to be easy targets for gang recruitment while tackling impunity.

Implementation of New Social Programs:

Sheinbaum criticized the neoliberal economic policies of previous Mexican presidents, arguing they exacerbated inequality. She promised to expand social welfare programs during her presidency, continuing initiatives started by López Obrador, such as universal pension schemes. During her electoral campaign, she introduced two social programs set to commence in early 2025, one providing pensions for women aged 60 to 64 at 3,000 Mexican pesos every two months, alongside a 1,900-peso grant for families each two months, plus 700 pesos for each additional student from preschool to high school.

Increased Focus on Clean Energy:

With a PhD in Energy Engineering and degrees in Physics, Sheinbaum has substantial experience in environmental policy, having served as the Minister of Environment in Mexico City and worked with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which received the Nobel Prize in 2007. During her tenure as environment minister, the capital saw a marked reduction in air pollution and the establishment of community environmental reserves. Despite her support for PEMEX (the state-owned oil company), she stressed the importance of transitioning to clean energy sources. In her first public address after her inauguration, Sheinbaum spoke about her energy sector goals, aiming for clean energy to account for approximately 45% of total electricity production by 2030, significantly higher than the 24% of clean electricity Mexico achieved in 2024, according to the country’s Ministry of Energy. She announced plans to encourage private investment in renewable energy, which had faced setbacks under the previous administration. Additionally, Sheinbaum stated that Mexico would introduce its first oil production ceiling at 1.8 million barrels per day. Her proposed policies would mark a significant shift from the former president’s strong support for fossil fuels.

Advocating for Women’s Rights: Sheinbaum describes herself as a feminist, advocating for gender equality and women’s rights, including a push for the legalization of abortion. She aligns her positions with larger movements aimed at enhancing reproductive rights and women’s autonomy. On her second day in office, she introduced a package of reforms designed to promote women’s rights, including constitutional guarantees for equal pay for equal work. In Mexico, women earn 65 pesos for every 100 pesos earned by men, according to the national statistics agency. The reforms also seek to ensure freedom from violence and call for gender equality in state and federal governmental councils, in a country known for some of the highest levels of violence against women worldwide. On average, between 9 and 10 women are murdered daily, based on government data, with tens of thousands reported missing. In 2022, over 70% of women aged 15 and older experienced some form of violence, an increase of 4% from a prior survey conducted in 2016.

Complicated Challenges

Claudia Sheinbaum, who will govern Mexico from 2024 to 2030 for a single presidential term, faces numerous internal and external challenges that may hinder her ability to execute her electoral program. These include:

Limitations of the National Budget: The leftist politician inherits a strong economy from her predecessor, López Obrador. Mexico’s GDP, the second-largest in Latin America, grew by 3.2% in 2023, marking the second consecutive year of growth exceeding 3%. Official data also indicates that the poverty rate has decreased from 43.9% in 2020 to 36.3% in 2022, with approximately 8.8 million fewer Mexicans living in poverty. However, a primary test Sheinbaum will face in November 2024 is presenting her administration’s budget. While López Obrador’s social welfare policies gained popularity among citizens, they contributed to inflationary deficits that Sheinbaum will need to address. The federal budget deficit stands at approximately 6% of GDP this year, with forecasts suggesting it could rise further in 2025, increasing the risk of a credit rating downgrade for Mexico, should debt levels continue to grow, per a report by Banco Base.

Growing Domestic Protests: In recent weeks, Mexico has witnessed mass protests from judges and legal professionals opposing a controversial plan to reform the judiciary, which would replace all the country’s judges with newly elected ones through “popular votes” over the next three years. Some fear this reform will lead to a highly politicized judiciary that serves the government and the president’s interests. While Sheinbaum has supported the judicial reform championed by López Obrador as essential to curbing corruption, she has agreed to establish nine forums to discuss and address the most contentious aspects of the reform.

Navigating López Obrador’s Legacy: As president, Sheinbaum is expected to largely follow her predecessor’s approach. Both are members of the leftist Morena political party, and López Obrador has been regarded as one of the most progressive Mexican leaders in decades, finishing his presidency with an impressively high approval rating above 70%, linked to social policies resonating with many Mexicans. However, Sheinbaum lacks this overwhelming popularity and charismatic persona; yet, she is seen as a less confrontational figure than her predecessor and will enjoy an unprecedented level of authority available to her. This is attributed to several factors, including a weakened judiciary in Mexico and the Morena party holding a strong majority in both chambers of the Mexican Congress, with three-quarters of the 32 state governors also belonging to the party.

Continued American Pressure: With a shared border of 2,000 miles, Mexico stands as the largest trading partner for the United States and a key ally in managing issues related to illegal immigration and drug trafficking. One of the most pressing issues Mayor of Mexico will face may be securing the border between the U.S. and Mexico, a longstanding focal point in their bilateral relationship. Tensions may escalate significantly if former President Donald Trump wins the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November, given his promises to deport millions of migrants and threats to take military action against drug cartels in Mexico. Additionally, there are emerging tensions over the judicial reform plan that sparked backlash from the U.S. ambassador to Mexico, followed by López Obrador accusing the U.S. of interfering in his country’s internal affairs and announcing a freeze in relations with the U.S. embassy in Mexico.

Managing Complex Relations with International Powers: As Claudia Sheinbaum officially takes office, concerns are rising in Washington about her political alliances and the potential uptick in Chinese influence near the U.S. border. Sheinbaum, elected on a platform of radical leftism, is perceived as aligning with global powers that challenge the West, including China and Russia. U.S. officials are particularly worried about the Chinese tech giants Huawei, ZTE, and Hikvision, which have already established a foothold in Mexico despite sanctions from the U.S., participating in major infrastructure projects south of the border. The new Mexican president will need to prioritize efforts to balance her country’s relations with its first and second largest trading partners.

In regards to her relationship with Russia, Sheinbaum defended her invitation to President Vladimir Putin to attend her inauguration, despite Ukrainian criticism, which included a call from the Ukrainian embassy in Mexico for his arrest. Simultaneously, the Speaker of the Ukrainian Parliament attended her inauguration. Notably, López Obrador did not label Russia an aggressor in its war in Ukraine, attempting to convey that both sides bear responsibility for the ongoing conflict. The new Mexican president insisted that her country’s foreign policy principles are based on “non-interference in the internal affairs of other nations,” stating that she does not plan to visit Ukraine, emphasizing her focus on domestic issues.

At the same time, the new president will have to address the current diplomatic crisis with Spain, stemming from the decision not to invite King Felipe VI to her inauguration; Sheinbaum justified this by referencing his non-response to a 2019 letter from López Obrador in which he called on Madrid to apologize for violations committed during the Spanish conquest of Mexico. This situation led the Spanish Prime Minister to sharply criticize the Mexican government, and refusal to send any official representation to the ceremony.

Diplomatic Crises within Latin America: During her inauguration speech as president of Mexico, Sheinbaum stated, “Our foreign policy will follow constitutional principles of self-determination for peoples, non-intervention, and peaceful resolution of disputes… We will continue to strengthen our economic and cultural ties with Latin American and Caribbean nations. We are united by history and this commitment unites us.” Nevertheless, the new president will have to deal with her country’s diplomatic disagreements with some regional countries, such as Ecuador and Peru, which were not invited to her inauguration.

It will also be crucial for Sheinbaum to clearly define her position on the political crisis in Venezuela, which erupted following the announcement of the electoral authorities declaring President Nicolás Maduro the winner of the July 2024 presidential elections, engendering sharp divisions and significant tensions between some nations in the region.

In summary, Claudia Sheinbaum has made history as the first woman to assume the presidency in Mexico, and the significance of this historic achievement lies in its occurrence in one of the most socially conservative countries in Latin America, which has been governed until now by a succession of 65 men since its independence from Spain two centuries ago. Nevertheless, the new president of Mexico will have to tackle a multitude of challenges. While these pressures may be intense, Sheinbaum’s success in addressing them will provide her with significant opportunities to prove her capabilities in governing the country, bolstered by her party’s control of the majority of seats in Congress, thus granting her considerable power to pass constitutional reforms and proposed legislation. Furthermore, her conciliatory persona, which is grounded in evidence-based governance, could facilitate her efforts to effect change.

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SAKHRI Mohamed
SAKHRI Mohamed

I hold a Bachelor's degree in Political Science and International Relations in addition to a Master's degree in International Security Studies. Alongside this, I have a passion for web development. During my studies, I acquired a strong understanding of fundamental political concepts and theories in international relations, security studies, and strategic studies.

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