Can International Efforts Succeed in Halting Escalation in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo?

On February 4, 2025, a coalition of rebel groups led by the “M23 Movement” in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo announced a ceasefire in response to the humanitarian crisis that arose from the escalation of military confrontations in Goma since January 25. These confrontations resulted in the deaths of at least 900 people, and around 2,880 others were injured, with over 400,000 people displaced since the beginning of this year (according to the United Nations).

Unprecedented Military Escalation:

In recent days, there has been significant security unrest and military escalation in Eastern Congo, which can be detailed as follows:

• The M23 rebel movement has launched intensive military operations, resulting in its control of Goma, the largest city in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and the last stronghold of government forces along the border with Rwanda. The city is rich in minerals and natural resources; rebels aim to exploit these resources as their main funding source. For over a year, the M23 has controlled the Rubaya area for coltan mining (utilized in smartphone production) in Congo, yielding an estimated $800,000 monthly from production taxes, according to the UN.
• The military operations initiated by the M23 resulted in the deaths of 13 South African peacekeepers within the UN peacekeeping mission in Congo, known as MONUSCO, in addition to several Congolese forces who surrendered during these confrontations. Notably, General Peter Serimwami, the military governor of North Kivu, was killed during direct military engagements against the rebels.
• The capture of Goma is part of a broader plan by the rebels to assert control over Eastern Congo. This followed an announcement by the M23 spokesman on January 21 of their control over the town of Minova, which holds strategic importance for the rebels, as controlling it was a precursor to taking Goma. This was reaffirmed by the movement’s leader, Bertrand Bisimwa, who declared their control over all defensive positions in Goma, indicating their military objectives had been achieved. The weaknesses in the Congolese government’s military capabilities have contributed to their inability to curb rebel activities. Additionally, the failure of existing peacekeeping forces in Eastern Congo to assist the government in enforcing state sovereignty over this tumultuous area has led to a deteriorating humanitarian crisis, with approximately 400,000 people displaced from North and South Kivu due to the intensification of military confrontations between rebels and government forces.

Rising International Concern:

The security and military unrest in Eastern Congo has elicited responses from the international community, highlighted as follows:

• The UN Security Council convened an emergency meeting on January 26 to address the unstable security situation in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, urging the M23 to halt its advance toward Goma and calling for the immediate withdrawal of external forces from the area. The UN also announced the withdrawal of non-essential staff from Goma to ensure their safety while maintaining vital UN operations in the region uninterrupted.
• The G7 nations and the European Union condemned the escalation by the rebels as a blatant violation of the sovereignty of the Democratic Republic of Congo. The United States similarly condemned this escalation, as reflected in a statement from the U.S. State Department, where Secretary of State Marco Rubio contacted the Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi to express Washington’s denunciation of the attack by the Rwandan-backed M23 rebels on Goma, the country’s largest city. The British Foreign Office’s statement aligned with the U.S. position, emphasizing a rejection of the clear violations of international law and the UN Charter by M23 militias, deeming it a threat to regional stability.
• The European Union issued a statement on January 26 calling on the M23 to halt its advance towards Goma and withdraw immediately. French President Emmanuel Macron urged both Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame to end the M23’s assault on Goma and withdraw from Congolese territory. The African Union also called for strict adherence to the ceasefire agreed upon by the parties.

Congolese-Rwandan Tension:

Recent military confrontations between M23 rebels and Congolese forces have heightened political tensions in the bilateral relations between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. On February 4, Congo called on the international community to impose sanctions on Rwanda to curb the rebel conflict in Eastern Congo and maintain peace in the wider region while urging Rwanda to engage constructively in any negotiations. On January 28, the Democratic Republic of Congo demanded Rwanda cease its diplomatic and consular activities within Congo within 48 hours, indicating a significant deterioration in Congolese-Rwandan relations, which could be seen as a severing of diplomatic ties with Rwanda. This was reflected in the Congolese government’s recall of its diplomats from Rwanda, based on several reasons, including:

1. The Congolese government’s accusations against Rwanda of exacerbating the conflict in Eastern Congo by deploying thousands of its armed forces and military equipment within Congolese territory adjacent to Rwanda, facilitating all types of military and material support for rebels in Eastern Congo, based on UN panel reports from 2022 indicating Rwanda’s involvement in supporting the rebels, thereby threatening the national security of the Democratic Republic of Congo.
2. Rwanda’s denial of Congolese accusations of supporting M23 rebels and its counter-accusation against Congo of backing the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda rebels, which Rwanda considers a threat to its national security that necessitates the deployment of its forces within Congolese territory along the shared border. This was reflected in Rwandan President Paul Kagame’s statements in early January, where he criticized the international community for ignoring the real causes of the ongoing conflict in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, claiming the true issue lies in Congo’s and the international community’s incapacity to address the actual problems, especially amid the rising activities of armed militias and rebels.
3. International condemnation of Rwanda’s support for M23 rebels in Eastern Congo, as reflected in a joint statement from the U.S., UK, and France on January 25, indicating that the M23 Movement’s advances in Goma were due to Rwandan support for the rebels. Moreover, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for Rwandan forces to leave Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, underscoring Rwanda’s entanglement in the region.
4. The UN Security Council issued a report condemning the deliberate disruption and spoofing of the Global Positioning System (GPS) to support M23’s military operations in North Kivu, describing it as an imminent danger to civil aviation safety, adversely impacting humanitarian aid delivery to civilians affected by the ongoing conflict in Eastern Congo.

Reasons for Escalation in Eastern Congo:

The ongoing military escalation in Eastern Congo since 2022 can be explained by the following reasons:

1. The inability of the Congolese government and UN peacekeeping forces (MONUSCO) present in Eastern Congo to halt the advance of rebels and limit their escalating military operations over recent years, particularly since 2022, amidst the weakness of the Congolese government’s military and security capacities.
2. Accusations from M23 rebels against the Congolese government for failing to combat Rwandan Hutu rebels who settled in Eastern Congo post the 1994 Rwandan genocide, in addition to other armed groups posing threats to Congolese Tutsis.
3. The failure of regional and international efforts to facilitate direct negotiations between the Congolese government and rebels, including the African Union’s attempts and initiatives from some African nations like Angola to mediate between the conflict parties, which have not succeeded in achieving their goals.
4. The failure to implement six ceasefire agreements signed between the Congolese government and rebels in Eastern Congo, the last of which was in July 2024, which the rebels violated by continuing their military activities.
5. Rwanda’s main role in supporting the rebels, contributing to the intensification of conflict and security disturbances in Eastern Congo.

Why Does Rwanda Support M23 Rebels?

The Congolese accusations of Rwandan support for M23 raise questions about Rwanda’s underlying motives for backing the rebels in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, which can be outlined as follows:

1. Rwanda accuses the Democratic Republic of Congo of harboring members of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda believed to have committed genocide in Rwanda in 1994, providing them protection and refuge within Congolese territory, which represents a direct threat to Rwandan national security, warranting Rwandan intervention to pursue these rebels.
2. Rwanda views its support for the M23 Movement in Eastern Congo as a means to protect its political and security interests in the region, particularly in neutralizing the capabilities of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda and preventing them from launching any attacks within Rwanda.
3. Rwanda considers Eastern Congo a crucial area of influence, especially given its richness in gold, which plays a significant role in the geopolitical competition between Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Uganda. For instance, Rwanda’s gold exports from Congo soared from 1% in 2014 to 47% in 2020.

Possible Scenarios:

In light of the escalating security and military unrest in Eastern Congo, as well as the political and diplomatic tensions in Congolese-Rwandan relations, several potential scenarios regarding the future of political relations between the two countries and their implications for peace and security in the Great Lakes Region can be noted as follows:

A. First Scenario: Attempt at De-escalation (the most likely scenario at the moment), this scenario suggests that the current military escalation and political tensions between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda may be alleviated, with efforts to persuade both sides to avoid entering into direct military confrontations to prevent economic and military repercussions. This could be facilitated by the intervention of international powers like the U.S., France, and the UK, in coordination with some regional actors such as South Africa and the African Union, as evidenced by swift regional and international moves advocating for a political settlement. Notable developments include:

• The Congolese government’s announcement on February 4 that it is actively pursuing diplomatic and military options to regain control of Goma, coinciding with the M23 rebels’ announcement of a ceasefire for humanitarian reasons, declaring they will not seek to control other areas in the region.
• Kenyan President William Ruto announced on February 4 that both President Félix Tshisekedi and President Paul Kagame agreed to attend a joint summit for regional blocs in Southern and Eastern Africa on February 7 and 8.

B. Second Scenario: Military Escalation, this scenario suggests continued military activities and violence in Eastern Congo between M23 rebels and Congolese forces, as the Congolese government has indicated its intention not to leave civilians under rebel control in newly captured areas. This indicates an effort by government forces to engage in armed confrontations with rebels in the near future, without ruling out the eruption of military confrontations along the shared border between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda due to rising tensions. There is also a possibility that negotiations hosted by Tanzania may fail, and the Democratic Republic of Congo could perceive a need to engage in military confrontations with Rwanda due to its failure to respond to calls to halt its support for M23 rebels. Additionally, Uganda has deployed 1,000 soldiers to its shared border with Congo, increasing its troop presence to between 4,000 and 5,000 soldiers who may provide support to Congolese forces against the rebels.

In conclusion, the current security and military developments in Eastern Congo indicate a cautious trend towards political and military de-escalation, prompted by regional interventions and international pressures for an immediate ceasefire, as reflected in the announced humanitarian ceasefire. This lays the groundwork for negotiations that could extend for months. However, the scenario of potential escalation cannot be overlooked if the issue remains unresolved, especially with the involvement of external parties in Eastern Congo.