History shows that strong nations can turn challenges into opportunities, and today Europe is looking within itself to find the best way to deal with the security, economic, and geopolitical challenges imposed on it by the return of US President Donald Trump to the White House. Europeans have found in the philosophy and wisdom of the famous British historian Arnold Toynbee, titled “Challenge and Response,” a way to deal with Trump. All indicators confirm that Europe is determined to respond to the challenges imposed on it by the current American administration, and this response requires Europeans to take bold and unprecedented steps in response to Washington’s decisions.
The old continent, which has lived for about 70 years under the American security and economic umbrella, is now searching for its own model in politics, economics, and relations with others, ensuring a new era of European sovereignty, strategic independence, and economic security. The goal is for Europe to be able, without pressure, to choose its partners and determine its fate instead of being just a “witness” to the dramatic developments that the White House tries to be the sole source of. This requires Europeans to set the rules rather than receive them from outside, and this cannot be achieved without working on a set of mandatory paths in building partnerships, enhancing competitive capabilities, and adopting an approach titled “Creativity and Self-Belief.” The European Union, which consists of 27 countries and includes around 500 million consumers living in over 4 million square kilometers, is capable, from the European perspective, of rediscovering itself without military, political, and economic reliance on Washington. Can Europe achieve independence from the United States in defense, economics, and geopolitics?
Disabling Paths:
Europe sees Trump’s policy based on the principle of “America First” as no longer based on shared values and a rule-based system, which Europe and the United States have shared since the end of World War II. The European-American disagreement stems from four main reasons:
1- End of the Joint Defense Era: American decisions and policies clearly and explicitly confirm that President Trump has practically abandoned the principle of “joint defense,” as he did not coordinate with Ukraine and Europeans when he directly communicated with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in addition to Washington freezing the delivery of military aid and halting information and intelligence coordination with Ukraine before resuming it after Kyiv agreed to a US proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in the war with Russia, as well as Trump’s administration not committing to the unity and integrity of Ukrainian territory and his intention to build an “Iron Dome” to protect American territory away from the European wing of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). European policymakers believe that this American “Iron Dome” is a prelude to Washington’s withdrawal from NATO and perhaps the withdrawal of around 100,000 American soldiers from Europe.
2- Increase in Defense Spending: Despite 22 NATO countries reaching the spending of 2% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defense affairs, the ceiling they committed to at the 2014 Wales Summit, Trump demands that European NATO member countries spend 5% of their GDP on defense and purchase more American weapons, a percentage that many Europeans believe will be at the expense of other files such as transitioning to a green economy and supporting industry. All steps taken by Europeans in defense spending have not convinced Trump, as the US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, said that his country will not provide free defense services, which has irritated Europeans, especially since Hegseth’s threat came after the significant increase in European spending on armaments and weapon purchases from American companies. There are 13 countries in the European Union that have contracted to purchase American fifth-generation aircraft “F-35,” which has increased the United States’ share of global arms exports to around 43% between 2020 and 2024, according to the latest report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
3- Fair Trade and Free Trade: President Trump does not believe in free trade, but only in fair trade. The volume of trade exchange between the European Union and the United States reached around 975.9billionin2024,withaUSdeficitof975.9billionin2024,withaUSdeficitof235.6 billion. Trump refuses any imbalance in the trade balance in favor of Europe and says he gets very angry when he sees German cars in California more than American cars, especially since Germany achieved a record trade surplus with the United States in 2024, estimated at around $72 billion.
4- Support for the Far Right: The three files mentioned above have roots dating back to Trump’s first term, and Europe and the United States succeeded in overcoming the disagreements about them, but what Europeans did not expect was that the current Trump administration would align itself with the far-right parties in Europe and accuse European governments of not practicing democracy because their government coalitions reject the inclusion of far-right parties such as the “National Rally” party in France and the “Alternative for Germany” party. The most embarrassing moment for Germany was when the outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz learned that US Vice President JD Vance met with Alice Weidel, the leader of the “Alternative for Germany” party, on February 14th on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, which was the first time such high-level American support was given to a highly extremist party in the heart of Europe.
Strategic Independence:
Analysis of European interactions and movements indicates the presence of momentum and political will to build a new path based on strategic independence, and indeed, Europeans have started taking steps and discussing others on the way to achieving this goal. The most prominent of these steps are as follows:
1- Defense Independence: Europe insists on its vision regarding Ukraine, confirming that facilitating Russia’s control over the Crimean Peninsula and then later over the regions of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson encourages President Putin to expand westward after finishing with Ukraine. The European approach to defense and military independence is based on a set of options:
a- Compensating Ukraine for American Weapons: Most European countries have agreed to expedite the shipment and production of weapons to support Ukraine as compensation for the freeze on the shipment of American weapons to it, and European countries even supported the stance of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after the verbal confrontation with President Trump and his Vice President JD Vance at the White House at the end of last February. Since the Russian military intervention in Ukraine, European countries have provided military and economic aid to Kyiv, estimated at around $138 billion according to reports, and Britain announced the provision of 5,000 air defense missiles on Zelenskyy’s way back to his country after his confrontation with Trump. Zelenskyy also received qualitative support from the European Commission when its President Ursula von der Leyen announced a plan to rearm European armies. In order to provide more military aid to Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron is seeking to raise his country’s military spending to 3.5% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has committed to raising his country’s defense spending to 2.5% of its GDP.
b- Mandatory Conscription: European calculations are based on Russia planning to increase the number of fighters to around 3.5 million soldiers by 2035; therefore, Europe sees the necessity of moving towards mandatory conscription, not only to confront Moscow but also to compensate for the potential withdrawal of American forces. In the past, some countries applied a mandatory conscription system, and other countries have started implementing this system, such as Norway, while a third group of countries has extended the period of mandatory conscription from four months to 11 months, as Denmark did, which also announced plans for mandatory conscription for women, making it the third European country to implement mandatory conscription for women after Norway and Sweden. Some countries have returned to mandatory conscription after abolishing it, such as Latvia, and there are plans to increase the number of armies in Britain, France, Poland, and Germany.
c- European Nuclear Shield: In anticipation of the possibility of NATO’s collapse or the withdrawal of American forces from Europe, President Macron proposed extending the French nuclear umbrella to protect the European continent, and this proposal has actually received support from Friedrich Merz, the most likely to be the next German Chancellor after the formation of the new government. Despite Britain not having decision-making independence regarding its nuclear weapons, its Prime Minister Starmer confirmed his readiness to discuss the placement of British and French nuclear weapons to protect Europe when he meets with the German and French leaders.
d- European Sky Shield Initiative: It is a project to protect the European sky proposed by Germany in 2022, and around 20 European countries have joined it, including militarily neutral countries such as Switzerland and Austria. It is based on the purchase of multi-range air defense systems (short, medium, and long-range), in light of estimates that Europe needs support for air defense and greater capability for “striking enemies” with long-range missiles to reach what is known as “unrestricted enemies” who do not adhere to international agreements and conventions. This can be achieved for Europe through joint purchases of weapons and ammunition, signing bilateral defense agreements at the European level, and this approach is supported by the agreement of European Union countries to provide around €800 billion to enhance their defenses.
e- End of Dependency: European countries are working to restructure everything related to defense, as they have been following the United States for years and decades, but currently, they are working on their independent paths in vital areas such as intelligence information, aerial and space surveillance, and opening dialogue with other countries to enhance cooperation in military industries.
2- Economic Independence: Europe sees many economic opportunities away from the United States, especially in terms of cooperation with Canada, Mexico, China, India, Japan, Australia, Brazil, and Indonesia. The European Union has also announced that it will impose “strong but proportionate” customs duties on a package of American imports starting from April 1, 2025, in response to the 25% tariffs imposed by Washington on steel and aluminum imports and implemented on March 12th of this year. Europe may also resort to signing free trade agreements with global economic powers and stable economic blocs; with the aim of achieving “economic sovereignty” based on creating job opportunities and financing the European model with its environmental and social aspects. According to European economic sovereignty, many Europeans reject Washington’s policy based on “arming the dollar,” as many European companies are exposed to significant losses to please the United States; because they simply side with Washington against a third country.
3- Diversification of Geopolitical Options: Since the end of World War II, Europe has been in the same corner as the United States, but today Europe sees Trump’s positions as an opportunity for geopolitical independence away from being tied to the American geopolitical agenda. For example, there is a gap between the European position and its American counterpart regarding the relationship with China, and today Europe can draw its own approach in managing relations with major and medium powers in the world based solely on European interests, not from the perspective of being tied and dependent on the United States. In this context, Europe can free itself in its relations with Beijing from the ongoing conflict between the latter and Washington; which achieves exceptional independence for Europe that has always been hostage to the American-Chinese rapprochement or disagreement.
In conclusion, it can be said that Europe may have the cards to achieve political, military, and economic independence from the United States, but it is still too early to measure the presence of a comprehensive and sufficient political will to achieve the desired strategic independence.
