In early October, an important book was published by Routledge, authored by two experienced researchers from DePaul University: Roberta Garner and Black Hawk Hancock, titled:
Change and Disruption: Sociology of the Future
This book relies on both classical and modern social theories to identify emerging trends in the global system. It explores the rise of authoritarian states, the divides between humans and the rest of nature, the impending influence of artificial intelligence, and changes in work, cities, science, and quality of life.
These dynamics are examined through the provocative question: Are the positive potentials of the modern world being realized, or will the human condition deteriorate?
The authors use social theory to address significant questions about contemporary and future societies. They employ three powerful tools for exploration. The first tool is historical analysis, revealing how our contemporary world has been shaped during the early modern era, with the rise of capitalism, colonialism, industrialization, and the tumultuous twentieth century.
The second tool consists of quantitative analyses of our current global conditions, showcasing contradictory images of ongoing inequalities and significant advancements in well-being.
The third tool involves competing social theories that envision a multiplicity of social forces shaping five “worrisome issues”: the state, the relationship between humans and nature; work, economy, and technology; demographic changes, migration, and urbanization; and the emerging self.
The book “Change and Disruption” presents a lively conversation between various social theorists and traditions. The authors review fluid and contentious realities within a changing historical context. They approach the project of sociology as an endeavor to understand our world and navigate the significant new paths of change within it.
The book includes 12 chapters divided into three sections, adopting a global perspective while sometimes focusing on the United States due to its differences from other countries in several respects: population diversity, the legacy of racial slavery which ended with the Civil War; its military and economic global power; and the strength of religious ideology compared to similarly developed countries.
The first section investigates where we are and how we got here. In Chapter One, it discusses previous eras of disruption and the trajectory of the modern world’s emergence. Chapter Two examines how key institutions of the modern age have changed, and Chapter Three studies transformations in social inequality patterns, particularly the rise of capitalism, changes in class structure, the invention of race as a floating signifier used to justify violence and inequality, the persistence of racial inequality, and the proliferation of gender hierarchies.
It evaluates how the experiences of change impact individuals differently and unjustly across the globe, which are the main subjects of the first part. Chapter Four addresses quantitative data analysis—statistics—to outline the contours of the contemporary world and its issues and crises.
The second section is concerned with theoretical analysis as a means of vision and reflection. The three theoretical traditions prioritized by the researchers as most beneficial for vision and reflection focus on three elements of the modern world: the governance of mechanical reason and the preoccupation with efficiency and control found in modern corporations and states; the decline of trust and social cohesion in society, coupled with over-regulation and under-regulation; and capitalism as a means to organize modern societies.
The third section provides a more detailed look into the current “worrisome issues.” This analysis is based on the materials from the first section (the past) and the second section (theories) and revisits the institutions and practices that have shaped our present world, discussing the state as the primary “worrisome issue” since it provides the means—the levers of power—to effect changes or maintain the status quo in the modern world. It cannot address any “worrisome issue” fully without using, altering, or dismantling state power. The researchers put forward four additional worrisome issues: the relationship between humans and the rest of nature; technology, modern production, and the economy; the flows of people to places—migration, incoming migration, and urbanization; and the transformation of the self, consisting of new types of experiences, ideas, relationships, and self-images for individuals.
Each chapter concludes with a list of key terms, presenting concepts for discussing changes, disruptions, and ongoing transformations in social structure, culture, and ideology.
Not surprisingly, in reading this book, it becomes evident that sociologists with conflicting viewpoints often use certain terms that align with different interpretations of social reality. For instance, the early phase of capitalism associated with exploration and conquest through government-linked trading companies like the East India Company is often referred to as mercantilism, while scholars influenced by Marxism might refer to it as war capitalism to emphasize the violent appropriation of resources, or primitive accumulation to highlight that it was a phase of wealth gathering that led toward industrialization and modern forms of capitalism.
Each chapter ends with questions prompting readers to reflect on their own experiences, observations, and thoughts. The authors present several key predictions, the most significant of which include:
First Prediction: The trend toward the continued spread of the reflected self—selfhood that is largely attuned to the opinions of others—expanding through social media and the internet. One trend being discussed is the ongoing movement along the path of the “other way,” toward increased guidance from media sources, influencer power, self-presentation for global audiences, and peer pressure that is now permeating social media, extending beyond personal interactions. The trend toward an expanded self for individuals in an electronic downtown (and a global village) may erode feelings, dull empathy for others, and obsess over markers of status and superficial identity signals. We look to each other’s posts and tweets and thus believe we know this individual.
Second Prediction: Increasing difficulty in compelling people to comply, as many view themselves as citizens in democracies and autonomous workers. Making these distinct classes compatible demands ongoing monitoring “with a velvet glove” and calls for self-discipline; at the same time, oppressed classes and groups are coerced into compliance through force “with an iron fist.”
The predictions may seem contradictory: on one hand, there is encouragement to think of ourselves as individuals and cultivate high self-esteem. Even the act of each owning our phone separates us from others and makes us feel like masters of our destiny and managers of our own image. Yet, beneath the facade of independence, many people feel a loss of agency arising from the organizations we work in, the states we live in, and the growing power of the extremely wealthy in dominating public policy and the media itself.
Third Prediction: An increasing prevalence of feelings of stress, anger, distrust, and insecurity as a result of work pressures, economic insecurity, financial setbacks, issues in the natural environment, state surveillance, and employer oversight leading to social issues being framed by the media. These feelings are often defined as individuals’ “mental health problems.” While observers explore high levels of stress, anxiety, and “mental health” issues among younger generations, a lively debate is taking place regarding the sources of this discomfort—whether screen time itself, social media, financial issues, racism, rising class inequality, declining rates of social mobility, or the pressures of a globally competitive labor market—all of which contribute to this fragility. The conjunction of expansive media and new compliance technologies, in a context of increasing inequality and ongoing marginalization, exemplifies how larger disturbances in the lifeworld can transform one’s sense of self.
Fourth Prediction: The changing nature of work will affect the sense of self, creating feelings of insecurity and undesirable risk, represent a form of stress that generates generalized anger and anxiety.
While businesses and states demand increased compliance with authority across a range of activities and institutions, the world of work has the potential to heighten chaos and insecurity. These effects of precarious and technologically complex work are unlikely to reflect such trends in the near future, especially due to two developments—ongoing technological innovation in production and the relatively weak position of labor following decades of neoliberalism.
Fifth Prediction: Many states will face a “care crisis.” Due to a lack of or insufficient institutions to take care of people physically and emotionally, individuals will begin to pay more attention to aging and disability, as well as child-rearing. The “care crisis” will impact the sense of security.
In some way, humans rely on each other in the realm of healthcare. For the elderly, children, and individuals facing physical or emotional challenges, forms of intensive care are needed. As societies age, many individuals will suffer from a lack of adequate care.
With the increasing numbers of educated individuals residing in urban areas globally, people will begin to demand a better future, with some participating in movements calling for the realization of the promises of revolutions associated with the Enlightenment: civil rights and freedoms; the rule of law; equality before the law; ending discrimination based on status and privilege; material well-being; rights for individuals, men and women, and all genders; freedom of thought and expression; the right to vote in free and fair elections and engage politically; and access to scientific knowledge and its application to well-being. These rights are still far from being recognized as universal human rights, enjoyed by only a minority of people, mostly in high-income countries.
Demands will increase for providing the necessary material conditions to exercise these political and civil rights, which include the global right to healthcare, education, better working conditions, affordable housing, a healthy planet, and a good quality of life. Achieving the goal of free development for every individual may only occur when everyone enjoys these rights. Can these conditions be met within the framework of the global capitalist system, or do the property rights enjoyed by a few pose a barrier to a better life for all, not only materially but also according to standards of individual freedom and completeness? According to the book’s findings, the coming few decades will be critical in determining the potential of capitalism to achieve the goal of free and complete development for every human being. Reducing stress and anxiety for communities could lead to greater happiness and stability.
There is a direct link between human well-being and a thriving world of animal and plant species, wild areas, peaceful environments, and opportunities to step away from machines and cities. On the other hand, the phenomena of climate change and pandemics escalate levels of stress and insecurity, especially when it seems that there are no existing policies to mitigate these issues. Treating nature as a resource rather than a value in itself diminishes pleasure and increases stress linked to mechanical reasoning and commodification.
Major cities with high population densities and urban areas housing millions of people in massive residential structures, with little access to nature, are significant sources of stress. The shrinking size of households in many economically advanced regions and countries may lead to feelings of insecurity and loss of social support, and the growing numbers of aging populations will negatively impact global development policies. On a more positive note, urbanization worldwide opens up many new economic and cultural opportunities, improves women’s lives, and expands access to education and healthcare.
