“Bamboo Diplomacy”: How Does Putin’s Visit Reflect Vietnam’s Foreign Policy Balance?
U.S. envoy to East Asia, Daniel Kritenbrink, visited Vietnam’s capital, Hanoi, on June 22, 2024. During his visit, he met with Vietnamese Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son to discuss the partnership between the two sides.
This visit followed Putin’s trip to Vietnam two days earlier, during which he and his high-level delegation met with top leaders, including President To Lam. Vietnam is the third Southeast Asian country Putin has visited since his inauguration in May 2024.
Tense Contexts:
This Russian tour in Asia comes amidst several regional and international developments, the most prominent being:
Western isolation of Putin: Western powers and the European Union have intensified sanctions on Russia recently. Meanwhile, the G7 agreed in mid-June 2024 to use profits from frozen Russian assets to provide a new $50 billion loan to Kyiv. As a result, Putin sought to break his isolation by strengthening ties with Asian allies, especially economically, to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions and political isolation. It is important to note that neither North Korea nor Vietnam are parties to the International Criminal Court, which issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 17, 2023.
The Russian security agreement with North Korea: A comprehensive strategic partnership agreement was signed, under which Pyongyang pledged unconditional support to Moscow in the war against Ukraine. Putin reaffirmed that Russia does not mind sending weapons to North Korea. The U.S. saw this as unsurprising and reflective of Russian desperation. Meanwhile, South Korea responded by signaling the potential to send weapons to Ukraine, a move Putin described as a significant mistake. Additionally, the Russian president hinted at the possibility of altering Russia’s nuclear doctrine without the need for a preemptive nuclear strike, a stance the Pentagon called irresponsible.
Escalation in the South China Sea: Recent maritime clashes between China and the Philippines have flared up again over the contested Second Thomas Shoal, raising concerns about possible U.S. involvement under its mutual defense treaty with the Philippines—a scenario the latter has denied. On the other hand, Vietnam has expressed its readiness to engage in talks with the Philippines to resolve their claims over the Spratly Islands, located in the South China Sea and disputed between both countries, adopting a diplomatic approach that contrasts with China’s.”
Moscow’s Motivations:
There are several reasons behind President Putin’s visit to Vietnam, which can be summarized as follows:
Market for Russian Weapons: Historically, Russia has been Vietnam’s main arms supplier since the Soviet era. As of 2022, Russia accounted for nearly 60% of all Vietnam’s military purchases over the past two decades. However, these rates have declined due to the war in Ukraine and fears of U.S. sanctions under the CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act). Given the Vietnamese military’s need for modern Russian weapons, which are easier to train on and operate, a secret arms deal between the two sides was reportedly discussed in 2023. Payment for the deal would be offset against oil and gas purchases. This visit has revived talks of finalizing the deal, which is valued at between $7.5 billion and $8 billion, potentially including fighter jets and BrahMos anti-ship missiles. There has been no official confirmation or denial of this deal so far. It’s worth noting that Vietnam has recently started diversifying its sources of arms by turning to countries like South Korea, Japan, the Czech Republic, and India, and has also worked on building its own defense industry. Additionally, it has sought support from the U.S., though Vietnamese leadership is skeptical about relying on American arms due to the political conditions often attached, from Hanoi’s perspective.
Limiting Washington’s Partnership with Vietnam: Putin emphasized that strengthening the comprehensive strategic partnership with Vietnam is a priority for Russia, given Vietnam’s significant regional role in Southeast Asia. This visit coincides with the 30th anniversary of the Treaty of Principles for Friendly Relations between Vietnam and Russia, propelling both sides to elevate their bilateral ties and maximize mutual interests. It’s important to note the strength of U.S.-Vietnam relations, particularly economically, with Washington being Vietnam’s largest export market. U.S.-Vietnam trade reached $111 billion in 2023, compared to just $3.6 billion between Vietnam and Russia. U.S. envoy for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Daniel Kritenbrink, denied that his recent visit to Hanoi was connected to the Russian president’s visit, emphasizing that it was routine and aimed at reaffirming U.S. support for Vietnam’s independence and prosperity. He also mentioned that the meetings would cover mutual goals, including the upcoming ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Vietnam in July 2024.
Strengthening Energy Cooperation: Russia and Vietnam share joint projects in the oil sector. Russian companies are involved in managing Vietnamese oil fields, such as the Vietsovpetro joint venture between Russia’s Zarubezhneft and Vietnam’s PetroVietnam, managing the Bach Ho oil field. Gazprom is also engaged in oil exploration projects in Vietnam. These projects are important for Moscow as its oil exports to Europe have decreased, although they have sparked anger in Beijing because they are located in disputed maritime areas.
Vietnam’s International Importance: Vietnam is a key player both regionally and globally. It engages in many interactions and power dynamics in Southeast Asia and beyond, which benefits Russia, especially economically, as it strengthens its relationship with Vietnam amid international competition to engage Hanoi.
Dimensions of the Visit:
The meetings between the Russian delegation and Vietnamese officials covered several issues, which can be summarized as follows:
Commendation on the Ukrainian Crisis Stance: Putin expressed gratitude to what he called the “Vietnamese friends” for their balanced position on the Ukrainian crisis and their desire to contribute to finding real ways to resolve it peacefully. It’s worth noting that Vietnam claims to adopt a neutral stance on the conflict in Ukraine, having refused to participate in the Ukraine Peace Summit held in Switzerland in mid-June 2024 and maintaining neutrality by not voting against Russia in the UN Security Council.
Strengthening Bilateral Relations: The Russian president invited his Vietnamese counterpart to attend the 80th Victory Day celebrations in Moscow. They discussed expanding liquefied natural gas projects in Vietnam through the Russian company Novatek, alongside an initiative to establish a nuclear energy and technology center with the support of the Russian state-owned Rosatom. They also discussed cooperation in developing wind energy, with mention of the initiative to set up a nuclear science and technology center in Vietnam, also supported by Rosatom.
During the visit, Putin praised progress in finance and trade despite Western sanctions, noting that transactions in Russian rubles and Vietnamese dong accounted for 60% of bilateral trade payments in the first quarter of this year, compared to over 40% last year. The joint venture bank, headquartered in Hanoi and established in 2006, plays a role in ensuring reliable financial transactions between both sides. Meanwhile, bilateral trade continues to grow, though China and the U.S. remain Vietnam’s main trading partners, not Russia.
Matters of Interest: Many issues were discussed, such as peace, cooperation, development, conflict resolution, and implementing frameworks like the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), along with ways to enhance comprehensive partnerships in the coming period.
Outcomes and Reactions:
The visit resulted in several agreements, but it also sparked numerous reactions, most notably from the American side, which can be outlined as follows:
Agreements Signed: The two parties signed at least 12 bilateral agreements and memorandums of understanding on various matters, such as energy, fossil fuels, gas, as well as cooperation in education, science, technology, clean energy, and nuclear energy. There were also other undisclosed agreements.
It’s noteworthy that there was controversy over the possibility of including military agreements similar to those Russia signed with North Korea. However, the Russian defense minister was not part of the delegation to Vietnam, having returned to Russia after his visit to North Korea, indicating no military agreements were signed during Putin’s visit to Vietnam.
Developing a Reliable Security Architecture: Putin pointed to an agreement between the two countries to develop a security framework in the Asia-Pacific region to prevent the formation of closed military or political blocs, accusing NATO of creating a security threat to Russia in Asia.
President Pham Minh Chinh emphasized that his country seeks to continue defense and security cooperation with Russia to address non-traditional security challenges. The Vietnamese president also noted that both sides will work to ensure security, safety, and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea while resorting to peaceful legal means to resolve regional disputes.
Conflicting U.S. Position: A U.S. State Department spokesperson and the U.S. Embassy in Hanoi expressed disapproval of any country giving Putin the opportunity to normalize his war in Ukraine, expressing concern over the Russian president’s freedom to travel and evade accountability, which they viewed as a violation of international law.
Separately, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the U.S.-Vietnam partnership does not require Vietnam to sever ties with Russia or China, adding that Vietnam has a policy and strategy to work cooperatively with various countries. Meanwhile, a spokesperson for the European Union delegation in Vietnam emphasized that Vietnam has the right to develop its foreign policy, though this shouldn’t overlook Moscow’s violations of international law.
Potential Repercussions:
This visit and its outcomes carry various implications and may result in some repercussions, as detailed below:
Breaking Moscow’s Western Isolation: Through this visit, Russia aimed to assert that it is not confined to the Western-imposed isolation and to counter the portrayal of Putin as an international pariah. Instead, Russia is shown as a nation that maintains relations with countries across diverse regions, with its president making widely visible visits. This is especially underscored by the warm reception he received in Hanoi, as well as previously in Pyongyang.
Success of Vietnam’s “Bamboo Diplomacy”: By hosting the Russian president, Vietnam seeks to solidify its position as a nation with a foreign policy based on peaceful diplomacy, non-alignment, and multilateralism. Vietnam has successfully maintained relations with Russia, China, and the United States simultaneously, avoiding direct and exclusive alliances with any single power. It has balanced its strategic partnerships with different forces in a way that keeps all sides engaged.
These moves fall under the umbrella of “Bamboo Diplomacy,” or “flexible balancing.” Vietnam’s moves toward Russia are calculated, with the country keen not to sever ties with the United States, which it views as a regional hub for countering Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific and South China Sea. Simultaneously, Russia is seen as a historically significant security partner, without being viewed as an ally. Additionally, Vietnam is seeking assurances that the growing Russia-China ties will not come at its expense, while also avoiding upsetting Beijing over Russian energy companies operating in the South China Sea.
Moving Toward Shaping a New World Order: Russia’s ambitions to break Western dominance, undermine the symbolism of Western isolation, and counter sanctions by rallying allies and friendly nations across Asia and the Global South could contribute to shaping a new world order that does not depend on unipolarity. Russia is also working to woo many of these countries into joining BRICS, which it currently leads and will host its annual summit in October 2024.
In this context, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused China and Russia of colluding to undermine the peace summit held in Switzerland, as only a few Asian nations attended. Among the countries that did not participate was Vietnam, as mentioned earlier.
Fueling an Arms Race in Southeast Asia: These visits and the agreements that followed—especially between Russia and North Korea, which signed a security agreement during Russia’s recent visit—could ignite an arms race in the region. Concerns remain about reviving the secret arms sales agreement, as countries in this region find it difficult to rely on Western arms due to their high financial and political costs, which enhances the importance of closer ties with Russia to meet their military needs.
Some estimates suggest that Russia’s role could reduce the pressure exerted by both China and the United States on Vietnam by offering military support, appeasing China, and supporting the energy sector, as well as creating diplomatic maneuvering space between China and the U.S. In contrast, Western assessments view Russia’s actions in Asia as exacerbating regional and international threats, further destabilizing the situation.
In conclusion, Vietnam’s “Bamboo Diplomacy,” with its flexible balancing between the U.S., Russia, and China, remains under scrutiny. Its success depends on Hanoi’s ability to maintain a delicate balance between conflicting interests without angering any party to the point where Vietnam itself becomes a battleground for these international powers.
