Analysis of Voting Trends in the 2024 U.S. Elections

The presidential elections in the United States are the reason for public opinion polls, which have sparked growing interest in measurement methodologies and the theoretical contributions related to polling in statistics. These contributions are revived through their transformation into practical applications that enhance the utility of these surveys in decision-making and future predictions in an uncertain electoral environment.

There are two types of public opinion polls associated with elections. The first type consists of pre-election polls, typically aimed at gauging voter attitudes toward the electoral process and candidates. If these polls are conducted based on a well-designed sample and a suitable sample size, the results provide accurate estimates of the relative weights of candidates, as well as their standing across different social segments, such as age groups, gender, geographical regions, educational levels, and various ethnic backgrounds. The outcomes of these polls are particularly valuable for campaign organizers to identify weaknesses, allowing them to realign their priorities in an attempt to attract the maximum number of voters to win the elections.

The second type is exit polls, which are conducted after voters cast their ballots. Voters are asked about the candidate they supported, in addition to questions regarding their age, gender, residence, education level, economic status, and ethnicity. Additional questions may be included based on the national context; for example, in the United States, respondents are often asked about their political leanings (liberal, moderate, conservative) and the important issues reflecting candidate positions, such as immigration policies and stances on abortion. These polls are conducted by Edison Research and funded by a consortium of media agencies (CNN, ABC, CBS, and NBC).

Characteristics of the Voting Demographic:

An exit poll surveyed a sample of 15,553 individuals through a combination of personal interviews, phone interviews, and online surveys. As depicted in the graphs, the results indicate that the number of female voters slightly exceeds that of male voters (53% vs. 47%), with the majority of votes coming from white voters (71%), followed by those of Latino descent (12%) and then Black voters (11%). Among those who voted, 42% identified as Protestant, followed by 24% who reported no religious affiliation, 22% Catholic, and 14% from other religions, while Jews comprised only 2% of voters. Additionally, 57% of the voters had not attended college, compared to 43% who had. In terms of ideological orientation, 42% described themselves as moderates, while 34% identified as conservatives and 23% as liberals.

When comparing these characteristics to voters from the 2020 election, there appears to be little change, with the notable exception of age demographics. Young voters (18 to under 30 years) accounted for 14% of the electorate this year, whereas voters aged 65 and over constituted double that proportion (28%). This age distribution contrasts with the exit poll conducted after the 2020 elections, which indicated that young voters made up 17% while elderly voters accounted for 22% of all who voted; thus, the voting demographic in 2024 is older than that of 2020.

Variations in Voting Patterns:

Here are the key highlights regarding differences in attitudes toward both the Republican and Democratic candidates across social segments:

Males vs. Females: The results show that 53% of female voters supported Kamala Harris while 45% voted for Donald Trump. However, this eight-point lead did not benefit Harris, as male support for Trump compensated for this gap, with 55% of male voters supporting him compared to only 42% for Harris—a thirteen-point difference.

Variations by Ethnicity: Black voters overwhelmingly supported Harris, who received 85% of their votes, while the majority of white voters favored Trump, who garnered 57% of their support. However, the impact of Black voters is relatively minimal, as they constitute only 11% of total votes, whereas white voters make up 71%. Notably, the voting trend among Latino voters was very close to that of white voters, marking one of the surprises of the 2024 elections.

Variations by Education Level: Trump received a larger share of votes from those with less education and a smaller share from those with higher education, garnering 63% of votes from non-college educated voters, while only achieving 41% from college-educated voters.

Changes in Voting Trends:

It is crucial to compare exit poll results over time, as they indicate the stability or change in the political landscape of the United States. Below are the key shifts observed in the 2024 elections compared to 2020:

Votes from Women: Expectations had placed Harris on a solid base of female support; however, the exit poll results contradicted this. While 57% of female voters supported Biden in 2020, only 53% supported Harris in 2024. Harris secured 91% of votes from Black female voters, a significant achievement; however, their overall impact on total results was limited as they represent only 7% of the electorate. Additionally, Harris garnered only 45% of votes from white female voters and 60% from Latina voters, which did not significantly alter the overall landscape.

Latino Voters: In 2020, the gap between those who voted for Biden and those for Trump was 33 percentage points (65% vs. 32%), but this narrowed to just six percentage points in the latest election (52% vs. 46%). After two-thirds of Latino voters supported the Democratic candidate previously, the 2024 election suggests a significant balancing. Analyzing this data by gender reveals an additional insight: the shift among Latino males was more pronounced, increasing their support for Trump from 36% in 2020 to 55% in 2024. This subgroup experienced the most substantial shift, though it remains unclear whether this change stems from an affinity for Trump or antagonism toward Harris. It’s also noteworthy that despite the majority of Latina voters supporting Harris, her support rate (60%) was lower than Biden’s support rate (69%) in 2020.

Less Educated Voters: Data from 2020 showed that non-college-educated voters were evenly split between candidates. In the 2024 elections, this group leaned more towards Trump, with 42% voting for Harris compared to 56% for Trump. In contrast, the voting pattern among those with higher education remained largely unchanged, with a majority continuing to back the Democratic candidate (55%).

Moderately Ideological Voters: Individuals who identify as moderates tend to favor the Democratic Party. In 2020, Biden obtained 64% of their votes, leading Trump by 30 percentage points. However, this support waned in the recent elections, decreasing the gap to just 17 percentage points (57% for Harris vs. 40% for Trump).

Rural Residents: Generally, rural residents tend to vote for Republican candidates. In 2020, Trump won 57% of their votes while Biden received 42%. This margin widened in the 2024 elections to 30 percentage points (64% for Trump vs. 34% for Harris).

Social Segments with Clear Preferences: It was previously noted that voters are more likely to support Trump if they identify as conservatives (90%), belong to the Protestant faith (63%), or are white (57%). However, there are subgroups that exhibited particularly strong support for Trump, where approximately two-thirds of their votes went to him. For instance, 72% of white Protestants voted for Trump. Additionally, 66% of whites without a college degree cast their votes for Trump, with the percentage rising to 69% among male voters from this subgroup.

In conclusion, exit polls provide valuable insights into the political map of societies and track changes in voter preferences over time, which aids in shaping the strategies and programs of competing parties and injects significant vitality into democratic systems facing challenges that cannot be overlooked.