The international and regional arenas are witnessing a rapid arms race involving military and wartime artificial intelligence technologies, especially after these technologies demonstrated their ability to reshape the course of wars and influence military balances in many ongoing conflicts. Among the technologies that many countries are rushing to acquire are military AI drones, which some believe could redefine combat operations in the future and significantly alter the nature of warfare.
Two Distinct Types:
There are two distinct types of drones used in military, warfare, and intelligence contexts, differing in various aspects such as technology levels, operational capabilities, and the functions they can perform:
Conventional UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles): Conventional drones are among the most widely used in military operations in recent times due to their prevalence and low production and maintenance costs. These drones are semi-automated and primarily rely on human control throughout all phases of their operations (takeoff, navigation, attack, landing) through remote control devices. Often, these drones may not be able to perform their tasks without human intervention and lack the ability to learn or adapt to changing military conditions. They cannot modify their missions in response to unforeseen circumstances, necessitating human input to adjust their course or assign new tasks. There is also a clear difficulty in determining the accuracy of these drones’ task execution, as it heavily depends on human operators’ skills and the tools used. They are unsuitable for targeting complex objectives or operating in challenging environments; their effectiveness diminishes against moving targets or those that appear suddenly in complicated settings. They have limited capability for coordinating collective attacks due to their lack of automatic coordination among multiple drones, which increases the likelihood of errors in target identification, analysis, or guidance.
AI Drones: Many major powers and armies hope to achieve significant advancements in automating their forces through the development and upgrading of drones by integrating artificial intelligence technologies. These include machine learning, computer vision, and autonomous planning, enabling AI drones to perform tasks independently or semi-independently. This integration allows AI drones to make decisions regarding navigation and execution based on available data such as target recognition, optimal path determination, and obstacle avoidance. These drones are expected to possess high autonomy in carrying out complex missions, such as reconnaissance, attacking, data analysis, and decision-making without human intervention. They are equipped with monitoring devices that include target imagery and the ability to use images and videos, often armed with missiles and Iskander missiles. An AI-equipped drone can select a specific target among several available options. In this context, these drones exhibit a high adaptability to changing situations, learning from previous experiences or field data, and improving their strategies. They can adjust to complex conditions like changing weather or terrain variations. Furthermore, they can identify moving targets and work to avoid non-military objectives, thereby reducing collateral damage, showcasing high accuracy due to advanced data analysis and computer vision techniques. This capability helps them make rapid, immediate decisions regarding attack or retreat. These drones can also coordinate independently among multiple drones in a swarm, enhancing the effectiveness of collective attacks.
Continuous Deployment:
Although fully autonomous military AI drones have not yet been realized, certain wars and conflicts have tested and experimented with some of these technologies, aimed at improving military strike efficiency, increasing precision, and reducing human casualties. Among these notable conflicts:
The Israeli War in Gaza: During the Israeli assault on Gaza, various AI capabilities were employed in warfare and intelligence operations, including target identification, individual tracking, and gathering satellite imagery of dangerous areas. This included the use of lethal robots, drone bombs, and drones for carrying out precise assassinations and various combat missions. Reports indicate that Israel integrated some AI technologies into their unmanned aircraft to carry out offensive and intelligence operations in its conflicts with Gaza and Lebanon. The Israeli army has used AI drones for identity verification, capable of operating underground by entering tunnels and seeing further than traditional means allow. They employed drones produced by the Israeli startup Roboteam, which places a drone inside a robotic box.
The Russian-Ukrainian War: The conflict between Russia and Ukraine serves as a primary arena for developing and testing military AI drones, with both sides racing to deploy these devices to establish battlefield and operational balance. On the Russian side, Defense Minister Andrey Belousov stated in October 2024 that AI drones play a pivotal role on the battlefield in Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin announced in September 2024 that Russia is increasing drone production by about tenfold, aiming for approximately 1.4 million units this year to secure victory for Russian armed forces in Ukraine. In August 2024, Russian officials announced a new ten-year defense strategy, emphasizing a shift towards artificial intelligence. Some reports suggest that the Russian Ministry of Defense plans to integrate AI technologies into Iranian Shahed-136 suicide drones (the Russian variant is known as Geran-2) to bypass Ukrainian air defense systems. On the Ukrainian side, Deputy Defense Minister Yevheny Chernohoryenko stated that integrating AI into one-way attack drones can make them less susceptible to Russian electronic warfare, allowing pilots to control them from safer distances. Ukraine aims to develop and upgrade its AI-equipped drones through three core areas: target identification, terrain mapping for navigation, and the creation of interconnected drone “swarms.” Thus, a range of startups, such as Swarmers, are working on developing AI systems to manage a massive fleet of drones. Ukraine hopes that deploying AI-equipped drones along the frontline will help overcome increased signal jamming from Russian forces, enabling drones to operate in larger groups.
The War in Libya: A 2021 UN report indicated the first use of lethal AI drones during the Libyan war, where military-grade UAVs with “lethal autonomous weapon systems” powered by AI were utilized by forces supported by the Government of National Unity in Western Libya. These drones tracked and engaged soldiers from a distance using combat UAVs or self-guided lethal weapon systems.
Potential Effects:
The employment of AI drones in warfare leads to numerous impactful ramifications on the trajectories of conflicts, including:
- Establishing Battlefield Balance: Military AI drones potentially create a level of battlefield balance between warring factions, as seen in the Russian-Ukrainian war, which allowed Ukraine to regain some operational balance against Russia.
- Prolonging Wars: The use of such drones by warring parties may lengthen the duration of conflicts, as it prevents one side from decisively achieving military victory, fostering equilibrium among the various parties.
- Reduced Dependency on Humans: The ability of these drones to operate autonomously implies reduced reliance on signals from human controllers compared to traditional drones, rendering jamming devices ineffective against them.
- Enhancement of Military Operations: Increasing reliance on AI drones could boost military operations through autonomous capabilities, real-time data processing, and improved decision-making, allowing for complex tasks like navigation and mission planning without direct human oversight. AI algorithms enable drones to collect and analyze vast amounts of data, facilitating rapid decision-making and operational efficiency.
- Evolution of Air Defense Systems: Heightened use of AI drones may impact the future of air and cyber defense systems, emphasizing the need for dedicated defense systems against drones. Future air defense systems may include laser weapons like those currently being tested by Israel, designed to address the issue of drone swarms.
- Diminished Importance of Conventional Air Forces: The relevance of traditional airpower, reliant on large combat aircraft, might decrease, as they will be used only in extreme cases, which could impact future investment decisions regarding combat aircraft that may become economically and militarily burdensome. Nevertheless, this does not imply that AI drones will replace traditional combat aircraft, as the latter remain critical for achieving air supremacy.
- Intensified Arms Race: Increased dependency on AI drones may spur an arms race among conflicting parties to acquire and develop more advanced military AI drone technologies, subsequently elevating the costs and burdens of smart and electronic warfare.
- Changing Conflict Patterns: There may be a shift from comprehensive, conventional wars to smart wars aimed at targeting vital impact objectives (assassinating officials, attacking critical energy centers, striking essential infrastructure) with greater precision.
- Transformation of Counterterrorism Warfare: This may lead to a shift from traditional counterterrorism warfare to precise smart warfare, with smart drones aiding in discovering terrorist hideouts, identifying wanted individuals, and detecting smuggling and funding routes, while executing targeted operations against terrorist leaders.
- Changes in Intelligence Tasks: Relying on AI drones is likely to necessitate rethinking intelligence agencies’ tasks and technologies, as these drones aid in collecting massive amounts of data from targets, affecting agency operations.
In conclusion, it can be said that there are multiple challenges and concerns raised by the future expansion of military AI drone production. This industry raises numerous ethical and humanitarian concerns about allowing these drones to execute military operations independently and the potential harm to civilians and critical infrastructure. Likewise, questions arise regarding the control and guidance of these drones, the risks they pose to military forces if captured by adversarial powers, and the accountability and responsibility for potential damages caused by these drones’ errors. Moreover, there are apprehensions about the potential access of these technologies to armed or terrorist groups, which could enhance their capabilities against nations and institutions, thereby influencing national and regional political stability.
