In today’s rapidly evolving geopolitical arena, artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as the new battleground for global dominance. Major powers are racing to build the infrastructure and technological capabilities that will determine how fast—and how effectively—they can integrate these innovations into their economies. While headlines often focus on “who invents first,” history tells a different story: nations that master the widespread adoption of breakthrough technologies, not just their invention, are the ones that secure lasting economic and political influence.
Jeffrey Ding, author of Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Competition, challenges the traditional view that global supremacy is won through monopoly over cutting-edge industries. Instead, he argues that technological competition is less like a sprint and more like a marathon—where patience, adaptability, and the ability to integrate technology across all sectors determine the ultimate winners.
From Steam Engines to AI: The Power of Technology Diffusion
Ding’s analysis centers on the concept of General-Purpose Technologies (GPTs)—transformative innovations such as steam power, electricity, and digital computing that reshape economies by boosting productivity across multiple industries. These technologies don’t just improve efficiency; they spawn entirely new sectors, business models, and social systems.
Contrary to the Leading Sectors (LS) theory, which emphasizes dominance in a few high-tech industries, Ding’s Diffusion of GPTs model highlights that true economic resilience comes from integrating these innovations across the entire economy. A single breakthrough means little if it remains confined to a niche. The real advantage lies in scaling technology broadly and rapidly.
Historical Lessons in Technological Leadership
1. The First Industrial Revolution – Britain’s Widespread Mechanization
Britain’s rise in the 18th and 19th centuries wasn’t solely due to inventing the steam engine or dominating textile production. Its real strength came from applying machinery to multiple sectors, aided by innovations in iron production and a skilled workforce. By embedding technology into every corner of the economy, Britain secured decades of industrial leadership.
2. The Second Industrial Revolution – America’s Mass Adoption Strategy
Between 1870 and 1914, the United States overtook older industrial powers by embedding electricity, mechanization, and assembly-line production into its entire industrial base. Standardized parts, engineering education, and a network of technical institutions fueled mass production, making the U.S. the world’s manufacturing powerhouse.
3. The Third Industrial Revolution – Japan’s Missed Opportunity
In the late 20th century, Japan led in semiconductors and consumer electronics, prompting speculation about a shift in global economic power. However, the U.S. outpaced Japan by embedding computing across its economy, supported by a strong software engineering talent base. Japan’s innovations didn’t translate into broad-based productivity gains, limiting its global influence.
The AI Race: A Marathon, Not a Sprint
Today’s U.S.–China AI rivalry mirrors the missteps of past technological competitions. Both countries focus heavily on achieving “the big breakthrough” in AI, often overlooking the harder challenge: ensuring that AI’s benefits spread throughout the economy. Emerging technologies like AI and quantum computing demand systematic integration—from manufacturing to healthcare—supported by robust education systems and institutional capacity.
This integration brings societal challenges: job displacement, widening inequality, cybersecurity threats, privacy concerns, and ethical dilemmas. Ding emphasizes that governments must proactively design policies to mitigate these risks while ensuring that AI’s benefits are widely distributed.
Policy Imperatives for the 21st Century
According to Ding, sustainable technological leadership rests on three pillars:
- Broad-Based Education – Expanding engineering and technical training, not just elite research programs.
- Institutional Infrastructure – Building organizations capable of integrating new tech across sectors.
- Inclusive Economic Strategies – Ensuring that technology adoption benefits all layers of society, preventing disruptive inequalities.
Rather than glorifying “moments of discovery,” policymakers should focus on building the foundations for large-scale, long-term technology adoption. This approach not only boosts productivity but also strengthens social stability.
Conclusion:
History’s most powerful nations didn’t just invent transformative technologies—they mastered the art of spreading them. In the AI era, countries that can integrate innovations across their economic, social, and institutional systems will set the terms of the 21st century. The question isn’t who invents first, but who adapts best. Those that shift from chasing short-term wins to investing in the infrastructure of diffusion will shape the next global order.
Source: Jeffrey Ding. Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes. Princeton University Press, 2024.
