On September 27, 2024, Ishiba Shigeru was elected as the new leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan during a ruling party election. He narrowly defeated his main competitor, Sanai Takaichi, the Minister of Economic Security, by just 21 votes. Takaichi was poised to become Japan’s first female prime minister. Ishiba’s foray into this electoral competition came after four unsuccessful attempts to lead the party. His latest opportunity allowed him to rise to prominence, largely due to his promises to reform the image of the ruling party, which had been severely affected by a series of financial scandals, alongside a period of public discontent stemming from various local and international challenges.
Domestic Organization
Ishiba pledged to continue Kishida’s economic policies aimed at pulling Japan out of recession and achieving real wage increases, while also addressing challenges such as the declining birthrate and population, combating corruption, and enhancing political accountability. His agenda can be outlined as follows:
First, he aims to elevate the economic standing of citizens. Ishiba inherits a stagnant economy burdened by inflation, weak wages, and high public debt. Unlike his predecessors, who struggled to implement effective measures, Ishiba is expected to adopt a more pragmatic approach. His economic vision primarily builds upon previous government policies, focusing on economic recovery and stabilizing the local currency’s performance. Moreover, he seeks to tackle the growing wealth disparity by promoting economic development in rural areas, providing new opportunities outside the capital, Tokyo. Ishiba has also proposed tax reforms targeting the alleviation of the financial burden on low-income families through tax exemptions on essential goods, as part of his efforts to contain rising inflation and the hardships faced by these households due to soaring prices.
Second, he intends to maintain a tightening of monetary policy. Ishiba is likely to adopt a moderate stance regarding Japanese monetary policy, emphasizing economic stability amid concerns about rising inflation and the weakening yen. Forecasts suggest he supports a flexible monetary policy, continuing the low-interest-rate policy pursued by the Bank of Japan to manage inflation and stimulate economic recovery.
Notably, Ishiba has been a vocal critic of the negative interest rate policies implemented by the Bank of Japan under former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics.” This critique came before the Bank adjusted its policy in March 2024, abandoning the long-standing negative interest rates and raising interest rates again last July. In statements following his election victory, Ishiba reiterated his belief that boosting the Japanese economy necessitates raising interest rates rather than lowering them to help reduce inflation and encourage sluggish consumer spending.
Third, combating corruption and enhancing political accountability are crucial to Ishiba’s agenda. In acknowledging the public’s loss of trust in the party, Ishiba addressed this political challenge in his victory speech, pledging to rebuild public trust in the government. He asserted his intention to create a party capable of conducting open and honest discussions, characterized by fairness, integrity, and humility. Given the scandals that have shaken the party in previous administrations, Ishiba is viewed as a figure capable of restoring transparency and accountability. He promised to implement stricter measures to ensure officials adhere to high ethical standards. The Prime Minister expressed his determination to address widespread distrust in the Liberal Democratic Party, anticipating that his popularity could strengthen the party’s prospects in the wake of scandals that marred Kishida’s tenure, thus reinforcing his role in reshaping the political landscape and restoring confidence in leadership for upcoming elections.
Fourth, Ishiba is focused on clean energy sources. He supports a gradual transition to renewable energy as part of his environmental strategy, advocating for reduced reliance on nuclear energy following the Fukushima disaster. This aligns with his long-standing commitment to environmental sustainability and efforts to diminish Japan’s dependence on nuclear energy. Given his backing for the shift from nuclear to renewable energy, Ishiba is expected to introduce new policies aimed at enhancing green energy solutions, which may include increased investment in solar and wind energy. To avoid internal disputes, he has moderated some of his political positions that previously placed him at odds with party colleagues, notably his intention to keep certain nuclear reactors operational in Japan.
Fifth, he announced plans for early elections. After winning the leadership race for the Liberal Democratic Party, Ishiba stated that he would call for general elections on October 27, preceding the main election date by a year. He views this move as crucial for allowing the public to evaluate the new administration promptly. This early election also serves as a strategy to capitalize on the momentum generated by his victory, particularly reversing the declining fortunes of the Liberal Democratic Party, which had been steadily losing ground in polls before Kishida’s resignation announcement. Additionally, this early election offers Ishiba the chance to secure a strong mandate for his premiership while giving the opposition limited time to prepare.
Sixth, he aims to address various social issues. Ishiba’s support for gender equality and social reforms constitutes a key focus of his domestic agenda, aiming to enhance diversity and equality in Japanese society. He plans to review an outdated civil law dating back to the 19th century, which requires married couples to choose one surname, leading most women to adopt their husbands’ names, despite the Liberal Democratic Party’s opposition to such measures over the decades.
On another note, some women’s rights advocates expressed relief that Sanai Takaichi would not assume the role of Prime Minister. Momoko Nojo, founder of the organization “No Youth, No Japan,” indicated that her election would have given a misleading impression that Japan had made progress in gender equality, while, in reality, it remains conservative and upholds patriarchal values.
Seventh, addressing health and demographic issues is central to Ishiba’s agenda. Tackling Japan’s declining population, particularly the challenges of an aging society and low birth rates, is a pivotal concern for Ishiba. He has proposed measures aimed at revitalizing rural areas, creating economic opportunities outside major Japanese cities, and addressing demographic challenges by encouraging higher birth rates through a more supportive environment for families.
In this context, Ishiba’s government is expected to focus on reforming the healthcare system, which has been overwhelmed by challenges, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. With the increasing number of elderly citizens in Japan, Ishiba may prioritize reforming the pension system and developing long-term care solutions to support the aging population.
External Stability
Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba will have to navigate the evident international fluctuations, as the Asia-Pacific region undergoes a transformation amid China’s maneuvers, and the United States may soon re-elect former President Donald Trump, who previously questioned the value of security allies like Japan during his first term in office. Despite these challenges, the new Japanese leader is unlikely to implement a radical shift in the country’s foreign policy, its security alliance with the United States, or its plans to bolster defense capabilities, as evidenced by the following observations:
First, he aims to strengthen Japan’s role in regional defense. Drawing from his extensive defense experience, Ishiba has consistently advocated for enhancing Japan’s defense capabilities through plans to increase defense spending and modernize Japan’s military infrastructure. This is in response to the escalating missile threats from North Korea and China’s increased military activity in the South China Sea. In a press conference following his election victory, Ishiba noted that there is a “mountain of issues” related to Japan’s national security, referencing the challenges Japan faced during the party’s presidential elections, such as the incursion of a Russian aircraft into Japanese airspace and the entry of Chinese naval vessels into adjacent waters, along with a North Korean missile launch. This context fuels his resolve to “protect the Japanese nation with the utmost rigor,” as he stated.
In this regard, Ishiba has called for the establishment of an “Asian NATO” to confront the rising threats from China and North Korea. His proposal envisions creating an “organic link” among existing U.S.-led defense networks, such as the ANZUS alliance with Australia and New Zealand and its alliances with South Korea and the Philippines. Ishiba has previously criticized the absence of a collective self-defense system in Asia akin to NATO, arguing that this could lead to the possibility of wars in the region due to a lack of mutual defense commitments. However, this idea did not receive favorable reception from the U.S. administration, with Daniel Kritenbrink, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, describing it as “premature.”
Second, he seeks to redefine security relations with the United States. Ishiba has emerged as one of the few voices calling for a review of agreements regarding the deployment of U.S. forces in Japan. He has indicated his desire to amend constitutional provisions related to Japan’s pacifism and to modify the alliance with the United States to achieve greater equality. Although he recognizes the importance of maintaining strong relations with Washington, he aims to negotiate terms that grant Japan more autonomy in how to use U.S. military bases on its territory.
While the security alliance with the United States is a cornerstone of Japan’s foreign policy, Ishiba has criticized certain aspects of the relationship, describing it as “unequal.” Japan hosts around 55,000 U.S. troops on its soil and bears 75% of the costs of operating U.S. bases. Furthermore, the security treaty between the two countries obligates the United States to intervene to assist Japan in the event of an attack, whereas it does not impose the same obligation on Japan toward the United States.
During his campaign, Ishiba proposed numerous ideas for reshaping the alliance with the United States. In a debate held in Okinawa, the southern island hosting most U.S. troops in Japan, he suggested transforming U.S. bases into joint operations between Tokyo and Washington. This proposal reflects his desire to redefine Japan’s role as a more independent actor in regional security, aligning with former President Barack Obama’s calls for Japan to take a more active role in determining the deployment of U.S. forces—an approach that subsequent U.S. administrations have not fully implemented. Third, he aims to contain Chinese threats. Ishiba is expected to adopt
a firmer stance towards China, advocating for a more robust defense posture against any attempts by China to challenge Japan’s sovereignty. His support for strengthening defense capabilities reflects a consensus in Japan about the need to address China’s assertiveness in the region. Ishiba has previously endorsed increasing Japan’s defense budget to 2% of GDP by 2027, a significant move aimed at modernizing the Self-Defense Forces and bolstering deterrence against potential threats. Moreover, he is likely to continue Japan’s cooperation with international partners to ensure stability in the region, reinforcing partnerships with like-minded nations and regional allies such as Australia and India.
Ishiba’s emergence as Prime Minister presents a dual opportunity for Japan: first, to address domestic challenges with a renewed sense of purpose, and second, to assert its role on the global stage amid evolving geopolitical dynamics. While he aims to redefine Japan’s domestic and international agendas, his success will hinge on balancing public expectations, overcoming historical challenges, and navigating complex diplomatic waters to secure Japan’s future in a rapidly changing world.
