Africa: Challenges of Fragility and Opportunities from International Competition

Several countries on the African continent are experiencing remarkable dynamics in developing their societies, boosting their economies, and enhancing their security in an effort to secure a significant regional position in a world facing rapid transformations. However, this dynamism is met with a state of fragility and instability in several other nations, threatening national unity, territorial integrity, and the political and legal existence of both national and regional entities.

Amid attempts to rise and the realities of increasing fragility, international competition intensifies over the continent’s resources, markets, and strategic locations. While the conflict over Africa adds challenges, in addition to the ingrained and emerging issues facing the continent’s nations, it simultaneously provides genuine opportunities to promote and defend their interests in an unfamiliar discourse—one of partnership, equality, and mutual benefits. To what extent can African countries balance their national, regional, and continental policies and strategies between nurturing their interests and confronting the challenges present amidst regional and international changes?

Regional Security and the Legacy of Fragility

Many African nations face economic and social challenges rendering them prone to structural fragility. One of the most pressing of these challenges is the escalating debt crisis. Studies show that countries with high levels of debt struggle to meet their citizens’ basic needs, such as security, political stability, and public services, negatively impacting economic development and increasing the fragility of state institutions. Given this importance, this study reflects on the theoretical framework of the concept of “state fragility” and the intertwined factors that contribute to its exacerbation, emphasizing the central role that the debt burden plays in weakening the economic and administrative capacities of these nations.

Accordingly, this study aims to explore the impact of debt burden on the fragility of African states. The first section defines the concept of state fragility and the theoretical framework of sovereign debt, clarifying the factors that promote fragility and the dimensions of the debt burden dilemma. The second section reviews the historical and structural reasons for debt accumulation in Africa. Meanwhile, the third section focuses on the social repercussions of high debt levels, and the fourth section analyzes cases of default and the effects of debt overflow. The fifth and final section proposes solutions and strategies for debt management that help achieve a balance between development and debt sustainability, supporting financial stability and sustainable growth.

1. The Concept of State Fragility and the Theoretical Framework for Sovereign Debt

The concept of “state fragility” reflects a state’s inability to meet the basic needs of its citizens for security, political stability, public services, infrastructure, and fair distribution of resources. A state is considered “fragile” when it experiences deficiencies in its public institutions, failing to achieve political stability and uphold the rule of law, thereby hampering its ability to provide essential services and maintain the necessary social and economic systems.

The definition of state fragility is multi-dimensional, given the interplay of political, economic, and social factors causing this weakness. Perhaps the most precise definition comes from Working Paper No. 7 in 2005 by the Poverty Reduction in Difficult Environments (PRDE) team, stating that “fragile states are those unable or unwilling to provide basic needs for their populations, particularly concerning security, resource management, and service provision.” This subtly indicates that some governments may not desire to provide essential services to citizens for various motivations, clearly observable in certain African countries.

According to classifications by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, fragile states are characterized by weak institutional capacities, ineffective policy frameworks, along with an unstable political environment, making them prone to multiple fluctuations and blemishes such as conflicts, violence, and absence of social justice. Moreover, state fragility is seen as a fundamental challenge to sustainable development, as such countries are marked by an unfavorable investment climate and weakened economic growth. Fragility also exacerbates prolonged humanitarian crises, such as poverty, unemployment, and forced displacement.

Estimates indicate that state fragility is not limited to countries experiencing active conflicts, but also extends to those facing ongoing developmental challenges due to weak governance, lack of transparency, and accountability. Fragile states become increasingly susceptible to the repercussions of economic crises and environmental shocks, which exacerbates fragility, raising the likelihood of sliding into greater crises.

Factors Contributing to State Fragility

According to the previously mentioned working paper by the PRDE, several interconnected factors contribute to state fragility, such as weak institutions, economic instability, social fragmentation, and others. Importantly, these factors often reinforce each other, creating a vicious cycle that perpetuates fragility.

Below is a brief clarification of these factors:

Weak Political Institutions: The primary driver of state fragility, fragile states often lack effective governance structures characterized by transparency and accountability, hindering their ability to manage social tensions. A balance between political power and executive checks results in diminishing institutional cohesion, increasing the likelihood of political instability.

Economic Factors: Economic development is a crucial factor in state stability, but weak institutions and a lack of resources for investment amplify fragility. It is essential to note that economic growth alone cannot prevent fragility; strong institutions must effectively manage resources. Additionally, sudden economic shocks can further destabilize political and social environments.

Social Fragmentation and Political Marginalization: Fragile states suffer from numerous social divisions, such as ethnic or religious conflicts. Discriminatory policies exacerbate these divisions, leading to unrest, insecurity, and reinforcing state fragility.

Violent Conflicts: Representing a manifestation and key driver of state fragility, such conflicts weaken institutions, depress GDP, and displace populations. Studies indicate that countries with prior conflicts are more likely to experience future instability and sustained institutional weakness.

External Shocks and International Factors: External shocks, such as natural disasters or economic fluctuations, increase state fragility, particularly in countries reliant on specific resources, such as those dependent on oil, or those affected by regional and international conflicts.

In light of the multiplicity of factors influencing state fragility, this paper focuses on the economic dimension containing numerous elements contributing to the fragility of states, such as weak economic growth, financial instability, significant income disparities, high unemployment rates, inflation, and price instability. This study will specifically concentrate on the debt burden and its role in the fragility of certain African states.

High levels of debt present a significant barrier for fragile states, limiting their capacity to invest in infrastructure, healthcare, and education, complicating the roots of instability. In Africa specifically, the accumulation of unsustainable debt has increased the fragility of many states by restricting their ability to manage their economies effectively. This study examines how the debt burden exacerbates the fragility of African states, focusing on the impact of economic pressures on governance, stability, and development across the continent.

The Theoretical Framework for Sovereign Debt and the Debt Burden Dilemma

Sovereign debt theories are a crucial tool for understanding the economic impacts of public debt on growth, particularly through the concept of “debt burden.” This concept refers to the point at which debt begins to exert economic pressure on the state, weakening its ability to enhance investment and growth. According to economic literature, the debt burden begins to negatively affect economic growth when its ratio to GDP surpasses a certain threshold, which varies between advanced and developing economies.

In developed countries, this threshold is estimated at around 90% of GDP, according to a renowned study by Reinhart and Rogoff in 2010. The study’s findings indicated that exceeding this level leads to a significant slowdown in economic growth. In developing and low-income countries, this threshold is lower, ranging between 40% and 50% of GDP, according to recommendations by the IMF and World Bank. This difference is attributed to the relative fragility of developing economies (due to other factors), making them more vulnerable to the effects of debt burden due to limited financing and fluctuating revenues.

Consequently, this study will focus on analyzing the role of debt burden in exacerbating the fragility of African states by reviewing the impact of high debt levels on their economic capacity and obstructing their development trajectories. Based on this, Figure 2 illustrates the ranking of the ten countries with the highest debt-to-GDP ratios, with Japan leading the list at 264%, followed by Venezuela at 241%, and other countries like Sudan, Greece, and Singapore, all surpassing debt ratios of 100% of their GDP.

According to previous economic literature, a debt ratio exceeding 90% in advanced countries and 50% in developing countries is usually considered an indicator of the potential negative impact of debt on economic growth. However, we observe that Japan and Singapore, despite their high levels of debt, are not classified among fragile states, suggesting that high debt levels are not the sole determinant of state fragility.

Similarly, the debt-to-GDP ratios for the top ten African countries reflect this trend. Eritrea leads these countries with a 256% ratio, followed by São Tomé and Príncipe at 164%. In comparison to countries like Zambia and Ghana, which have debt ratios between 70% and 100%, it is evident that some African countries with high debt levels are indeed fragile, while others, with lower debt burdens, still face diverse economic challenges.

Despite the fact that a high debt-to-GDP ratio is an indicator of potential economic difficulties for states, state fragility depends on factors that go beyond this metric. For instance, Japan and Singapore manage high debt levels without compromising their economic and social stability, thanks to their efficient economic management, robust financial systems, and stable political environments, which enhance their capacity to bear high debt burdens without slipping into fragility.

Conversely, many African countries suffer from weak financial management, poor governance, and political instability, making them more susceptible to negative repercussions that deepen their economic and social fragility. Therefore, poor debt management and weak governance intensify the fragility of these states, turning debt burdens into significant barriers to stability and growth.

Here, the concept of “debt overflow” emerges as a state of diminishing trust in the state, leading to decreased investments due to the diversion of resources toward debt repayment instead of growth enhancement. This concept refers to a situation where debts accumulate to such an extent that doubts arise regarding a state’s repayment ability, leading to a decline in new investments for fear that returns will be directed toward debt repayment rather than economic enhancement. A study by Asunuma and Jo emphasized the need to understand the dynamics of restructuring, where debt overflow is linked to a diminished ability of the state to access financial markets due to defaults. Furthermore, a study by Aguirre and colleagues expanded understanding regarding the impact of debt accumulation on investment, suggesting that debt relief could enhance economic well-being in alignment with Pareto improvements.

Sovereign debt restructuring, despite its complexities, is essential and is affected by factors such as creditor coordination and moral hazards. A study by Moody pointed to the importance of having a restructuring mechanism within the state or at a regional level, making the restructuring process more flexible and reducing irresponsible behavior from debtors. Delays in restructuring often lead to economic instability; researchers Benjamin and Wright provided a theoretical framework to explain such delays, indicating that inefficiencies in negotiations could prolong periods of economic instability.

In the same vein, empirical studies have demonstrated the importance of proactive restructuring, with a study by Asunuma and Trebitch indicating that proactive restructuring is usually less costly than restructuring that follows a default. These findings underscore the necessity of balancing debt reductions with extensions of payment schedules to ensure economic recovery. Moreover, the effects of debt overflow extend to the state’s creditworthiness and its ability to access financial markets, as poor debt restructuring management adversely impacts credit and foreign direct investment.

On the African continent, the accumulation of public debt presents a challenge necessitating the adoption of comprehensive and transparent strategies. Experts suggest that embracing transparent legal frameworks could alleviate financial burdens and promote sustainable growth, highlighting the role of international financial institutions, such as the IMF, in supporting debt crisis management through international bankruptcy mechanisms that facilitate coordination issues. It is noteworthy that the relationship between debt levels and economic growth resembles a concave curve; while lower levels promote growth, higher levels lead to slowdowns, necessitating careful management of debt levels to avoid economic disruptions.

1. Historical and Structural Reasons for Debt Accumulation in African Countries

The issue of debt accumulation represents one of the prominent economic challenges confronting African nations, as high debt levels impede their capacity to invest in new projects, limiting economic growth opportunities and increasing fragility. The topic of debt accumulation correlates with various historical and structural factors that interact with investment decisions and macroeconomic conditions, leading to increasingly negative impacts.

Historically, debt accumulation links to what Myers referred to in his theory of “underinvestment” where heavily indebted companies (or states in broader context) tend to avoid new investments as their returns will primarily go toward servicing existing debt rather than enhancing economic growth. This dynamic particularly exacerbates in African states that heavily rely on external financing, leading to a state of “economic stagnation,” with these states becoming unable to meet developmental needs, further reinforcing their fragility.

Global economic crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis, underscore the importance of addressing “debt overflow” within the African context. During these crises, African countries with high debt levels witnessed sharp revenue declines, prompting additional debt burdens and reduced investment opportunities. This interaction between macroeconomic risks and sovereign debts creates a vicious cycle where the likelihood of default increases, further limiting the ability to attract new investments.

Additionally, agency costs associated with debt accumulation add further complexity to the economic landscape in African states, as international creditors’ interests diverge from local developmental needs, leading to conflicts that impede decisions focused on sustainable development.

On the other hand, short debt maturities exacerbate financial pressures, forcing countries to allocate resources to service debts instead of investing in vital sectors like infrastructure, health, and education. Experiences show that debt accumulation in these fragile economies results in “credit rating erosion,” weakening their access to financial markets and their ability to attract necessary investments for sustainable growth. The preceding points lead not only to economic crises but also have various political and social repercussions.

2. Social Repercussions of High Debt Levels

High levels of debt pose significant challenges for African states, directly impacting their financial stability and economic growth, thereby increasing fragility. Studies indicate that exceeding public debts to their total GDP (100%) leads to increasing negative effects on economic growth, reflecting the non-linear relationship between debt and growth in fragile economies. This is particularly evident in African countries experiencing a decline in capital accumulation and weak productivity, thus limiting their long-term growth potential.

One of the notable dynamics is the “crowding-out” effect, where public debt consumes a significant portion of available credit, reducing private sector access to necessary growth financing. This effect creates an unfavorable investment environment and increases borrowing costs, negatively affecting economic growth across the African continent. Furthermore, high public debt elevates financial risks and uncertainties within economic institutions, imposing additional constraints on growth.

At a social level, high debt levels affect essential social spending aimed at the poorest populations, with countries experiencing high debt levels reducing their social expenditures, exacerbating the suffering of vulnerable groups and widening economic disparities. The implications of this effect are particularly pronounced in African nations, where reductions in social spending lead to increased poverty and inequality.

Politically, pressures to maintain high debt levels create discrepancies between financial policies and the needs of populations, with the need to promote financial stability often clashing with political pressures to maintain social spending. This dynamic hinders efforts aimed at debt reduction and achieving development. These interactions reflect the necessity of adopting sustainable debt management policies in African countries, aimed at enhancing economic growth and achieving social justice.

3. Cases of Default and the Impact of Debt Overflow on Some Countries

Table 1 presents an overview of countries that have recently faced sovereign debt crises, including backgrounds of these crises, causes of defaults, and consequent outcomes. These examples reveal the nature of financial crises exacerbated by factors beyond mere debt levels, relating to mismanagement, weak governance, and the absence of political stability.

The table illustrates how debt accumulation in countries like Zambia, Ghana, and Lebanon was not solely the result of the debt size but rather exemplified the phenomenon of “debt overflow,” where high debt burdens lead to a loss of confidence among creditors and investors, diminishing opportunities for financing new projects, and resulting in a decline in investments.

For instance, Mozambique’s crisis reflects a tragic reliance on ill-planned and secret loans, which led the country into a crisis of trust and economic collapse due to halted international aid and severed financial ties. In Lebanon, corruption and poor financial management precipitated the collapse of the banking sector and economic decay, deepening the state’s fragility.

This table clearly demonstrates the dynamics of financial crises that extend beyond mere debt burdens, where problems exacerbate due to structural factors such as weak institutions, rampant corruption, and a lack of transparency. These cases align with the previously mentioned effects of “debt overflow,” which not only diminish investments but also trap states in a vicious cycle of continuous crises, hindering their ability to improve economic conditions as resources are drained into debt servicing rather than directed toward sustainable development.

It’s essential to note that despite focusing on some African countries, this phenomenon is not limited to the African continent, but rather a characteristic shared by numerous countries suffering from mismanaged debts, weak financial and institutional structures, which render them susceptible to defaults. The factors that lead to state fragility and the prevalence of financial crises extend beyond merely the debt levels to encompass an unstable institutional and political environment, making debt management a heavy burden that constrains opportunities for economic growth.

4. Solutions and Strategies for Managing African Countries’ Debt

The unfolding debt crisis facing African countries demands a comprehensive approach relying on precise strategies for managing public debt—balancing the need to meet developmental needs with ensuring debt sustainability—originating from a long-term reliance on external borrowing for projects that may lack tangible economic returns, thus inflating debts and weakening these countries’ capacity to fund growth.

Accordingly, the need to adopt effective solutions and regulatory measures aimed at promoting the resilience of African economies and reducing reliance on external debt becomes apparent.

Here are the main proposed solutions and strategies:

Focus on Investment in Productive Sectors: Such as agriculture and manufacturing, to stimulate revenue and reduce dependency on loans.

Adopt Financial Policies: Balancing developmental spending with controlling debt levels, promoting growth without sinking countries into additional debt.

Enhance Transparency and Governance in Debt Management: Reducing corruption and improving the efficiency of public spending, activating oversight and accountability mechanisms.

Diversify Funding Sources: Encouraging reliance on regional institutions, such as the African Export-Import Bank, to mitigate the impact of external debts.

Establish an African Credit Rating Agency: Providing fair credit assessments considering the local contexts of African countries, enhancing investor confidence and reducing borrowing costs to support sustainable development.

Launch a Continental African Sovereign Wealth Fund: Supporting debt management by investing returns from natural resources, reducing reliance on external borrowing, and enhancing financial stability and sustainable development.

Impose Environmental Taxes: As a means to increase local revenues while adhering to sustainable development goals.

Stimulate Foreign Direct Investment: By improving the investment climate and simplifying regulations to attract capital and reduce debt dependence.

Create a Global Code of Conduct for Sovereign Debt Restructuring: Facilitating negotiations and enhancing transparency between debtor countries and creditors.

Utilize Artificial Intelligence to Predict Crises: To improve debt management and proactive intervention before financial crises escalate.

These solutions underscore the necessity to restructure the approach to sovereign debt management in African countries, enhancing their capacity to confront ongoing debt challenges and achieve sustainable development.

In conclusion, it is evident that the sovereign debt crisis plays a pivotal role in shaping the fragility of African states and amplifying their economic and social challenges. While the debt burden is among the prominent reasons for failing to achieve stability and growth, poor debt management, weak governance, and a lack of transparency exacerbate the depth of this crisis. Although the debt-to-GDP ratio serves as an important indicator of fragility potential, experiences clearly show that structural and administrative factors truly determine states’ ability to bear debt burdens and continue growing.

To achieve economic sustainability that alleviates the weight of debts, a range of strategic solutions such as directing investments toward productive sectors, developing balanced financial policies, enhancing governance and transparency, and diversifying funding sources have emerged. Stimulating foreign direct investment, adopting AI technologies for crisis prediction, and establishing codes of conduct for debt restructuring are all fundamental steps toward achieving stability and enhancing economic resilience in the face of global fluctuations.

Ultimately, this comprehensive and balanced approach to debt management is a crucial key in empowering African countries to move toward a sustainable developmental path, reducing their fragility and enhancing their capacity to adapt to future challenges.

Terrorism and Piracy: Old and Recurring Threats

The maritime domain represents the lungs of the world and arteries of human life, serving not only as a conduit for movement but also for the flow of water worldwide. Despite its vital importance, it constitutes soft spots that can be threatened and targeted through diverse operations, primarily maritime terrorism and piracy. The maritime environment has become one of the operational arenas where terrorists use coercion to achieve political aims, and where pirates launch attacks for material gains. Accordingly, this paper aims to provide an overview of maritime terrorism and piracy, highlighting their interrelations as follows:

Maritime Terrorism

1. Definition of Maritime Terrorism:

Although there is no consensus on the definition of maritime terrorism, one generally accepted definition is that it is “the systematic use of or threat of violence against international maritime transport and shipping services by an individual or group to instill fear and intimidate civilians for achieving political ambitions or goals.”

2. Forms of Maritime Terrorism:

Maritime terrorism can be categorized into several types based on its targeting of the maritime domain and selection of objectives, as follows:

Use of the Maritime Domain as a Means of Attacking Land-based Targets: Examples include the Mumbai bombings on November 26, 2008, when ten terrorists landed via speedboats at the port and executed a series of 12 coordinated attacks.

Hijacking of Vessels and Taking Hostages by Terrorists: This tactic is widely used, for example, the 2014 kidnapping of a vessel owned by Kenya by al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda affiliate from Somalia, where eleven sailors of different nationalities were taken hostage.

Terrorist Attacks Against High-value Maritime Targets: Two of the first such attacks occurred off the coast of Yemen in 2000 and 2002, respectively; the first was executed by al-Qaeda against the USS Cole on October 12, 2000, where the destroyer was attacked by a suicide boat laden with explosives while refueling in Aden port, resulting in 17 dead and 39 injured. Notably, this was the first time a symbol of American military power faced such an unprecedented maritime attack by a terrorist group.

The second attack targeted the French oil tanker MV Limburg on October 6, 2002, resulting in an environmental disaster from the spill of 100,000 tons of crude oil in the Gulf of Aden.

Maritime terrorist attacks are limited in number; the Global Terrorism Database indicates that over forty years, there have been 89,000 acts of terrorism, of which only 991 were maritime terrorist incidents—less than 2% of the total terrorist incidents. While the overall number of recorded incidents worldwide is relatively small, the international community considers their risks high, and the occurrence of more maritime terrorist attacks remains entirely probable. The limitations on maritime terrorist attacks can be attributed to several factors, primarily that the maritime environment demands specific capabilities that many armed groups are unaccustomed to, such as boats, training in navigating vessels, and instead they prefer land-based attacks. Additionally, targeting a vessel on the open sea is far removed from the daily concerns of an ordinary citizen, and thus may not instill terror, while also being distanced from media attention.

3. When Might a Maritime Target Be of Interest?

Some researchers suggest a maritime target might be favored based on several factors, including increased security measures on land that hinder their operations. The proliferation of specialized companies providing necessary training and boating equipment to interested civilians can also contribute. Additionally, a willingness to harm the financial and economic situation of a state can drive attackers to target ships, particularly oil tankers. For instance, al-Qaeda’s 2002 attack on the French oil tanker MV Limburg did not result in significant human losses but directly contributed to short-term disruptions in international shipping in the Gulf of Aden and surrounding waters, as well as a rise in the price of Brent crude oil by $0.48. Al-Qaeda stated: “By blowing up the oil tanker in Yemen, the holy warriors severed the umbilical cord and lifeline of the crusader community.” The attack by Houthi forces on a Saudi-owned oil tanker named Arsan while passing through the Red Sea near the Yemeni port of Hodeidah on July 25, 2018, led to Riyadh suspending oil tanker shipments through the Red Sea, adversely affecting global oil prices.

4. Maritime Terrorism by Non-State Armed Actors:

Maritime terrorist attacks reveal that only a few armed groups can carry out maritime terrorism, with notable examples including:

Tamil Tigers: The group, seeking to establish a Tamil Hindu homeland in northern Sri Lanka, has been prominent in executing maritime terrorist attacks through its naval branch, the “Sea Tigers,” since 1984, which has destroyed a significant portion of the Sri Lankan navy.

Abu Sayyaf Group: Another noted group with maritime capabilities is Abu Sayyaf in the Philippines. This group leveraged its maritime capabilities along with the support of some local populations to carry out maritime terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia. The maritime terrorist attack by this group in Manila Bay off Corregidor Island on February 27, 2004, resulted in 116 deaths, marking it as one of the largest maritime terrorist acts in terms of casualties.

Al-Qaeda: Al-Qaeda has expressed interest in maritime attacks; estimates of its naval fleet size differ, with researchers suggesting that some ships in this fleet are used for commercial purposes, aiding the organization in financing its operations. Recently, al-Qaeda launched an attack involving eight C-802 anti-ship missiles against the Pakistani navy frigate PNS Zulfiquar at Karachi naval base on September 6, 2014, aimed at attacking nearby U.S. naval vessels.

Ansar Allah (Houthi Movement): Since the Houthis’ coup against the legitimacy of president Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, the situation regarding navigation routes and commercial pathways in the Red Sea has seen instability, with risks steadily escalating as the war drags on. The Houthis, with Iranian assistance, have developed their maritime weaponry. Here are some notable maritime terrorist attacks by the group:

October 2016: An attack on the UAE ship HMV-2 Swift, along with attacks on the U.S. destroyer USS Mason.

January 2017: Three boats attacked a Saudi frigate, killing two crew members.

June 2017: Targeting an Emirati warship off the coast of Al-Makha city.

April 2018: An unsuccessful missile attack on the Saudi double-hulled oil tanker Al-Buqayq off the coast of Hodeidah.

May 2018: A missile attack on the Turkish ship Enzi Anebulu carrying food supplies.

July 2018: An attack on the Saudi oil tanker Arsan, damaging its outer structure off the coast of Hodeidah.

January 2022: The hijacking of the UAE vessel Rawabi off Hodeidah port in the Red Sea while transporting medical equipment from Socotra Island to the Saudi region of Jazan. The crew of 14 people from American, Indian, Filipino, and Indonesian nationalities was released in April of the same year through Omani mediation.

November 2023: The group announced its participation on November 14 as part of the “Flood of Al-Aqsa” operation alongside Hamas by targeting some vessels operated by Israeli companies or heading to Israel in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Maritime Piracy

1. Definition of Piracy:

Both the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) presently define piracy as outlined in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) as follows:

a. Any act of violence or unlawful detention, or any act of robbery, committed for private ends by the crew or passengers of a private ship or aircraft, directed:

(i) in high seas, against another ship or aircraft, or against persons or property on board such ship or aircraft.

b. Any act of voluntary participation in the operation of a ship or aircraft, knowing facts which make it a pirate ship or aircraft.

c. Any act of incitement or facilitation of the act described in subparagraph (a) or (b).

According to this definition, piracy is limited to acts occurring outside a state’s coastal waters, and therefore, acts committed in coastal waters are classified as armed robbery. Additionally, maritime terrorism, with political objectives, is excluded from this definition.

2. Forms of Piracy:

The following classification outlines piracy activities and provides five models, including:

• Model One: Simple theft of ship stores and valuables from docked ships/buoys or alongside a pier.
• Model Two: Armed/threatening robbery against ships docked/buoys or alongside a pier.
• Model Three: Armed/threatening robbery against ships in transit.
• Model Four: Armed attacks on ships in transit to take hostages and demand ransoms.
• Model Five: Kidnapping and deliberate transfer of the ownership of ships—“phantom ships.”

To better understand piracy, it is essential to note that today’s pirate differs markedly from historical pirates. The modern pirate is generally well-trained and possesses the capacity to use high-end technological equipment—a combination of several socioeconomic and political factors contributes to maritime piracy, including political instability, corruption and ineffective government and law enforcement agencies, the profitable nature of the activity, leniency of laws toward pirates and maritime criminals upon arrest, and the availability of islands that facilitate pirates’ concealment and slow down vessel movement, highlighting geography’s significant influence on maritime attacks.

Piracy is prevalent in several regions, notably the Horn of Africa, comprising the Somali Basin, the southern part of the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden. The Southeast Asian region, including the Indonesian archipelago and the South China Sea, is also a notorious area for piracy.

The severity of incidents in the Horn of Africa is illustrated by it accounting for over half of the piracy incidents globally in 2009, according to statistics. Additionally, statistics show variations in the number of piracy attacks over the years. According to statistics from 2022 published by Statista Research Department, contemporary maritime piracy peaked in 2010, with approximately 445 reported incidents, while 2020 witnessed the most significant number of pirate attacks in three years, with 195 ships targeted, decreasing to 132 attacks in 2021.

Traditionally, researchers believed that pirates were not concerned with specific cargo types, as their focus was solely on ransom; however, this is no longer the case with the rising significance of oil shipments, now the central focus of piracy. Pirates quickly check oil shipments and often spend between five to ten days to offload the oil, with some Somali pirates occasionally detaining cargo for months. Piracy thrives in the Gulf of Aden, as one-third of the world’s crude oil is transported by tankers passing through this region, making it an enticing target for pirates to seize and sell. An example includes the 2008 piracy attack on the Saudi oil tanker Sirius Star, ranked among the critical piracy incidents, where pirates seized an oil cargo valued at least at $100 million. It is crucial to note that this incident raised concerns about potentially devastating environmental consequences.

The detrimental impacts of piracy extend beyond threatening the lives of crew members and seizing cargo; its negative implications affect the global economy as a whole. For instance, One Earth Future Foundation tracked the economic impact of piracy on the global economy between 2008 and 2011, estimating costs at up to $5 billion annually, highlighting that only 2% of this amount corresponds to piracy costs, while the remaining percentages include costs incurred by protective measures for ships to combat this threat (63%), costs borne by states and international organizations to address the problem (24%), and neighboring states’ negative impacts on piracy-afflicted areas accounting for 9%.

3. Main Points of Intersection and Divergence Between Maritime Terrorism and Piracy:

Some similarities between pirates and maritime terrorists lie in their operational environment on the water, utilizing ships or boats while requiring skills to operate such vessels. Additionally, both their actions are planned rather than reckless, becoming more effective as they become more organized, employing intelligence to strategize their actions.

Small, fast boats are often chosen for operations due to their speed, maneuverability, and effectiveness in avoiding radar detection. Their acquisition and maintenance costs are lower than larger ships. The same vulnerabilities—in legal, judicial, and insufficient security—along with geography and narrow channels slowing down traffic, provide opportunities for pirates and terrorists to undertake their activities.

Some differences between pirates and maritime terrorists lie in their motivations for carrying out attacks, with material motivations driving the former while political motivations drive the latter. Nonetheless, in some cases, these distinctions become unclear. Some groups have been known to engage in both activities: terrorism with political motives and piracy for economic gain. Notable examples include the Tamil Tigers and the Moro National Liberation Front.

Target selection varies based on their motivations; for pirates, less fortified vessels capable of protecting themselves but carrying large cargoes are preferred targets, while terrorists choose symbolic vessels that incur significant losses or can potentially be used as weapons bases.

Both groups employ violence or the threat thereof, though generally, pirates attempt to minimize loss of life to evade retaliation from foreign naval forces and to avoid drawing attention. Conversely, for terrorists, publicity typically increases alongside higher casualties.

Lastly, pirates employ simpler tactics, while terrorists use more complex strategies in executing their attacks.

In conclusion, several steps must be taken in this context, notably enhancing shared responsibility concepts alongside refining maritime surveillance platforms and capabilities to gather maritime safety information in high-risk zones, alongside fostering awareness of the maritime domain through information-sharing improvements, as part of confronting maritime security threats and countering their grave consequences.

Challenges of Climate Change in Africa

The Africa 2063 Agenda recognizes climate change as the primary challenge hindering development across the continent. Although Africa’s share of global carbon emissions is only about 3.5%, with major emitters like China and the United States being responsible for the majority of greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change, African countries are among those most affected by its consequences, particularly in rural areas. The repercussions are extensive, affecting economic, social, health, food, and water aspects, increasing the necessity for major emitting countries to assist affected nations by allocating more financial resources and aiding adaptation to climate change impacts, in addition to working on reducing emissions that significantly raise temperatures.

We will attempt to delve deeper into Africa’s unique characteristics regarding climate change, clarifying the challenges it faces, as well as the steps various countries have taken, alongside a range of measures that could be implemented to combat climate change and assist nations in adapting to its consequences, thus reducing anticipated losses.

First: Africa’s Unique Position on Climate Issues

Despite commitments made by countries in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement to limit temperature increases to below 2 degrees Celsius and enhance financial support from developed to developing nations, these efforts remain insufficient even if fully honored. Global temperatures are projected to rise by 3 degrees Celsius during the 21st century. The West African coastal region, experiencing an annual population growth rate of approximately 2.8%, is expected to face some of the most severe impacts of prolonged droughts. Southern Africa will also encounter droughts and high temperatures, with a 1.5-degree Celsius rise potentially reducing rainfall in Zambia. Should temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius, rainfall in Namibia, Botswana, northern Zimbabwe, and southern Zambia could decrease by 20%, and the area of the Zambezi River basin may shrink by 5% to 10%.

Africa’s uniqueness lies in the fact that 80% of its land is located on both sides of the equator, subjecting it to warm or hot temperatures year-round and heavy seasonal rains. Predictions indicate that significant changes in rainfall patterns will occur over the next century, with reduced precipitation in northern and southern regions of the continent, increased rainfall in the Horn of Africa, and a heightened risk of flooding. Furthermore, unprecedented temperature increases across the continent are anticipated to impact both humans and wildlife, with some species, such as gorillas living in cooler high-altitude mountains, becoming endangered. It is expected that temperatures will rise by 1.5 degrees by the end of the current century, resulting in droughts that will threaten agricultural outputs, livestock, and overall agricultural production rates. Consequently, this will lead to rising food prices, jeopardizing food security and increasing displacement, migration, and refugee issues as individuals seek better living conditions.

Moreover, climate change is expected to contribute to the melting of glaciers in Africa, such as those on Mount Kilimanjaro, over the coming decades. It is projected that climate variability could reduce the GDP of Sub-Saharan African countries by up to 3% by 2050 due to the adverse effects on agriculture, which is crucial for economic growth in many African nations. Agriculture in various regions heavily relies on rainfall, making it vulnerable to anticipated droughts and floods, with lending fluctuations likely to impact southern Africa, where rainfall is expected to decrease by 20% by 2030. In light of this, agricultural production yields in Africa could drop by 8% in Southern and Eastern Africa, 11% in the North, and 13% in the West and Central regions, with crops like wheat and rice predicted to suffer the most, facing losses of 21% and 12%, respectively, by 2050.

It is noteworthy that the continent’s lack of adequate infrastructure exacerbates individuals’ situations. With Africa being among the continents experiencing rapid population growth—population reached 472 million in 2018 and is expected to double by 2043—this will lead to increased rural-to-urban migration in search of better living standards amid climate fluctuations. However, in many Sub-Saharan African nations, this translates to “transitioning from rural deprivation to urban poverty,” given the lack of appropriate economic development and unfair wealth distribution.

Like various regions worldwide, African populations tend to cluster in coastal areas rich in economic opportunities, with around 30 million Africans living in proximity to the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. However, as sea levels rise and the likelihood of storms increases, these areas will see diminished capabilities to produce food, especially fish, as in Ghana, where 2.2 million people rely on fishing likely to be impacted by rising water temperatures and acidity levels. This may affect fish populations, water availability, and salinity levels of rivers, further reducing access to clean water for drinking and irrigation. Additionally, the vulnerabilities of infrastructure will heighten due to increased incidences of land subsidence, rising ground, and escalating maintenance costs for damages, compounded by the difficulty of predicting and preparing for climate disasters in these regions.

In West Africa, for example, 56% of the coastlines of countries such as Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, and Togo are experiencing erosion, and this figure is expected to rise in the future.

Health-wise, rising temperatures, increased rainfall, and higher water salinity contribute to the increased transmission of diseases like malaria, yellow fever, and dengue fever. These factors heighten the risk of pregnant women experiencing hypertension, consequently contributing to higher infant mortality rates.

The impacts of climate change extend beyond environmental and food security to include individual health and community security, particularly in impoverished rural and urban areas, hindering development and increasing poverty rates, especially among populations reliant on agriculture and pastoralism, thus leading to heightened displacement and migration. For instance, approximately 6.3 million individuals in Lagos, Nigeria, are projected to be displaced if sea levels rise by one meter. Already, around 3 million people in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Mozambique have been affected by devastating cyclones in the spring of 2018.

Furthermore, there are predictions of increased armed conflicts within the African continent as available resources dwindle, leading to intensified disputes over arable land and drinking water. The collapse of traditional community values in the scramble for basic livelihoods could see terrorist groups capitalize on governments’ inability to manage border regions, coupled with rising unemployment and poverty levels, to recruit youth seeking daily sustenance. This poses higher security risks across the continent, exemplified by the situation around Lake Chad.

Second: Challenges and Obstacles Facing Africa in Addressing Climate Change

Africa faces a series of challenges and obstacles related to climate change, with one key issue being the lack of funding allocated to climate research. A February 2022 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights significant disparities in global climate research funding since 1990. While 78% of researchers in the U.S. and Europe receive funding, only about 15% of African scientists do. This disparity is especially evident in North African countries, where droughts are common, yet funding remains limited. As a result, the development of early warning systems is hindered due to a lack of weather monitoring stations compared to those in Europe and North America.

Moreover, there has been a substantial shortfall in funding for climate-related investments, with African countries facing billions of dollars in financing gaps as they attempt to adapt to climate crises. Estimates suggest that the cost of climate change adaptation in Africa could reach $300 billion. Despite pledges from major countries to double funding for climate adaptation projects between 2014 and 2020, developing nations received only around $4.4 billion in 2018—of which 43% went to Africa.

The aforementioned IPCC report outlines the economic challenges the continent will face, forecasting significant losses due to the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity—affecting key exports such as corn, coffee, and tea. Additionally, around 12 coastal African cities are expected to suffer setbacks from rising sea levels, potentially leading to losses of up to $86 billion. Consequently, Africa requires substantial funding to invest in infrastructure that enhances resilience and supports adaptation to climate change.

Ethiopia, for instance, needs to spend up to $6 billion annually until 2030 to effectively address the increasing risks of flooding and wildfires. Overall, African nations need a comprehensive and sustainable approach to adapt to the growing threats posed by climate change.

Another major challenge lies in the failure of wealthy, developed countries to uphold their commitments to poorer nations—particularly their pledge to provide $100 billion annually to developing countries by 2020, a promise made a decade earlier. These nations later stated they would be unable to meet this target until 2023 due to increased burdens stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic.

A more contentious issue is the absence of mechanisms to hold global leaders accountable for the pledges made during international climate summits. This lack of accountability is reflected in the soaring economic costs of climate change, which surpassed $210 billion globally in 2020 alone.

Projections indicate that, without urgent action, the cost of climate change in Africa could reach $50 billion annually by 2050—disproportionately affecting the continent’s poorest populations. These communities are often the least equipped to cope with rising food prices or to access the resources and alternatives necessary for climate adaptation.

Additionally, the number of climate migrants in Africa is expected to reach 86 million over the next 25 years—a growing humanitarian and economic burden that will eventually impact not just African nations but the global community, particularly wealthier countries.

In this context, there are intense discussions surrounding the shortcomings of the United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Glasgow (COP26), where activists argue that more serious steps are needed regarding African countries with respect to climate adaptation and resource availability. These concerns should be pivotal on the agenda of global climate policies ahead of the upcoming climate conference in Egypt (COP27). Some opinions suggest that global climate agendas must consider the security and economic dimensions of nations to be more sustainable and effective in addressing climate change.

Third: African Steps to Combat Climate Change

Numerous African nations have begun taking initial steps to address climate changes and support an environmentally friendly green economy. More than 90% of African countries have ratified the Paris Climate Agreement, striving to adopt measures to combat climate change despite their resource limitations, such as ratifying nationally determined contributions to reduce carbon emissions. Countries like Kenya have sought to abolish or reduce value-added taxes on clean cooking equipment, incentivizing businesses and individuals to adopt environmentally friendly options. The African youth demographic is particularly poised to embrace effective actions against climate change; surveys indicate that youth in fifteen African countries express concerns over rising pollution levels, the impact on natural resources, and government delays in adopting proactive measures to address climate change and solutions based on clean energy.

In the context of engaging stakeholders and private sector companies in addressing climate change, major global energy companies are negotiating clean energy deals within the African continent. For example, Shell has invested in the Solar Now project in Uganda and Kenya, which enhances electricity production through solar energy, established in 2011, and has reduced greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 210,000 tons. However, the African government sector still requires reforms to effectively embrace steps that support increasing renewable energy production in countries, given that African nations possess abundant renewable energy sources like solar and wind.

Simultaneously, Morocco aims for renewable energy contributions to total energy used to reach about 52% by 2030 and has established the world’s largest solar energy facility, Noor, spanning 6,000 acres, which will supply clean electricity to nearly 2 million Moroccans and create job opportunities, including training programs for women on agriculture and business startup. South Africa has introduced a carbon tax law, effective since 2019, imposing fees on greenhouse gas emissions from fuel combustion and industrial processes, projected to contribute to reducing carbon emissions in the country by 33% by 2035.

Conversely, other nations are addressing water scarcity issues. For instance, Botswana has implemented investment programs aimed at increasing resilience and addressing water scarcity by expanding dam construction and enhancing pipelines connecting the north and south, alongside smart agriculture projects.

Fourth: Effective Opportunities and Measures

Ultimately, there are a number of actions that African countries need to address to better confront climate change, chiefly striving to achieve sustainable development goals, alongside focusing on enhancing the agricultural sector to be more adaptable to climate changes. This includes ensuring access to weather and climate information and paying special attention to women, who constitute the majority of the agricultural workforce in Africa, along with increasing agricultural research and its application in practice, and enhancing cooperation among African countries to provide relief to those affected in crisis and emergency situations. Additionally, expanding sustainable agricultural practices that generate significant employment opportunities could yield up to $320 billion annually by 2030 in Sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, restoring degraded lands and improving the efficiency of agricultural supply chains can bolster food security, health security for populations, and further facilitate economic growth across the continent.

With the evident willingness of African youth to take proactive steps to protect their futures from climate change impacts, increasing efforts to attract eco-friendly investments within the continent could establish a fertile ground for such investments, considering social acceptance as crucial for the success of these initiatives, especially given the substantial youth demographic in Africa.

Moreover, African leaders can adopt a series of political measures that will benefit the continent in facing climate change, such as establishing national agendas that consider climate changes and adopt more sustainable solutions. This includes enhancing urban areas’ roles in responding to climate change by creating more sustainable cities through supporting green development projects and expanding clean energy access for populations across all countries to reduce carbon emissions and promote the cultivation of crops that are heat-resistant and require minimal water. Furthermore, tailoring local solutions to meet sustainable development goals rather than conforming to global solutions that may not align with African resources and demographic structures is vital.

This requires involving local populations so they are not merely recipients of advice from experts and donors in the Northern Hemisphere but active participants in global discussions related to the environment and climate. Additionally, it is imperative to increase the funding received by Africa to enhance its capacity to adapt to climate change and strengthen accountability for local companies contributing to rising carbon emissions and environmental pollution.

By bolstering infrastructure, maintaining coastlines, and diversifying economic activities to lessen reliance on sectors damaged by climate change, countries can halve the number of individuals at risk of flooding by 2100 and reduce predicted annual losses due to floods, estimated to range from 5billionto5billionto9 billion.

In summary, the African continent suffers profoundly due to climate change, underscoring the need for proactive measures from its leaders, supported by wealthier, more advanced nations to combat climate change, adapt to its consequences, and protect its populations. This will require more than just local or regional solutions within the continent, demanding greater commitment from major polluting countries to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and other ambitious global initiatives that tackle climate change challenges in the coming decades.

Conclusion:

Africa stands at a crossroads — grappling with persistent challenges of fragility while also being at the center of renewed global interest. Structural weaknesses such as sovereign debt crises, insecurity fueled by terrorism and piracy, and the growing threats of climate change continue to undermine the continent’s stability and development. These interconnected issues require comprehensive, context-specific responses rooted in both national reform and international cooperation.

However, in the face of these challenges lies a significant opportunity. The intensifying international competition for influence, investment, and resources in Africa — often framed as a “new scramble” — can be leveraged to the continent’s advantage. By strengthening governance, promoting regional integration, and negotiating equitable partnerships, African states can transform external interest into internal growth and resilience.

Ultimately, addressing fragility while strategically navigating global competition offers a path for African nations not only to recover, but to thrive — building stronger institutions, inclusive economies, and a more autonomous voice on the world stage.

References

“Africa’s Stalled Development: International Causes and Cures” – David K. Leonard & Scott Straus

“Why States Recover: Changing Walking Societies into Nations” – Greg Mills

“When Things Fell Apart: State Failure in Late-Century Africa” – Robert H. Bates

“States and Power in Africa” – Jeffrey Herbst

“The State of Africa: A History of Fifty Years of Independence” – Martin Meredith

“Africa in Chaos” – George B.N. Ayittey

“Understanding Fragile States: A Multi-Dimensional Framework” – L. J. M. Cochrane (Editor)

“The Looting Machine: Warlords, Oligarchs, Corporations, Smugglers, and the Theft of Africa’s Wealth” – Tom Burgis

“The Fate of Africa: A History of Fifty Years of Independence” – Martin Meredith

“War and Statehood in Africa” – Morten Bøås & Kevin Dunn

“Africa and the Global System of Capital Accumulation” – Emmanuel O. Oritsejafor & Allan D. Cooper (Eds.)

African Agency in International Politics” – William Brown & Sophie Harman (Eds.)

“The New Scramble for Africa” – Padraig Carmody

“Resource Extraction and Development in Africa” – Edited by Nathan Andrews & J. Andrew Grant