In a move that was not surprising given the pressures he faced from various Democratic Party leaders, U.S. President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race. At the same time, he announced his support for his Vice President, Kamala Harris (59 years old), to replace him as the party’s candidate in the presidential elections scheduled for November 5th.
Although speculations about pushing Harris as the Democratic Party’s candidate for the upcoming presidential elections had been ongoing for several months, due to strong doubts about Biden’s ability to complete his duties, and after his performance in the first presidential debate in June 2024, questions remain about Harris’s ability to defeat Trump, considering many factors.
Harris’s Opportunities
Several factors might help the Vice President win if she is chosen as the Democratic Party’s candidate during the Democratic National Convention scheduled to be held from August 19–22, 2024, in Chicago. These factors are as follows:
Her Husband’s Close Ties to the American Jewish Community: Harris’s Jewish husband, Doug Emhoff, is close to Jewish donors, which could increase funding for her campaign from the Jewish community, both within the U.S. and in Israel. This would put Harris in close proximity to Israel and powerful Jewish lobbying groups like AIPAC, enhancing her chances of winning the votes of Jewish Americans, who play a key role in the presidential elections for several reasons, including their concentration in critical swing states and their high voter turnout despite their small percentage relative to the total U.S. population.
Transfer of Biden’s Campaign Funds to Harris: In the few hours following Biden’s announcement, Harris successfully raised $50 million in popular donations. She will also have access to the funds raised by the Biden-Harris campaign if she is officially declared the Democratic candidate, according to Federal Election Commission rules. By the end of June, Biden’s campaign funds amounted to approximately $95.9 million. Many Democratic donors have already expressed their support for Harris and their intention to donate to her campaign.
Continuing Biden’s Campaign Efforts: Harris will build on the Biden campaign’s progress. The name of the campaign has been changed from “Biden-Harris Campaign” to “Harris for President,” and Biden’s campaign staff has transitioned to work for Harris’s campaign. She has contacted over 100 party leaders, Congress members, governors, labor leaders, and civil rights groups to gain their support. She traveled to Wilmington, Delaware, Biden’s residence, and plans to travel to more states in the coming weeks to highlight her new campaign and the achievements of the current administration while criticizing Trump’s expected 2025 agenda, especially regarding abortion and voting rights.
Choosing a Strong Vice Presidential Candidate: Selecting a strong Democratic leader as her Vice President will be crucial for Harris’s ability to win the presidential election. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is a strong contender, as it would be challenging for Harris to choose another woman, such as Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Polls show that 47% of Pennsylvania voters would vote for Harris if Shapiro were her running mate, and 42% expressed the same in Michigan. Other potential candidates include North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear.
Quick Endorsements from Democratic Figures: After Harris announced her intention to run for president, several prominent Democratic figures quickly endorsed her, indicating prior consultations within the party about immediate moves following Biden’s withdrawal. Support came from former President Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, several prominent senators, and a wide range of House representatives and members of the influential Black Caucus in Congress. Governors like Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Roy Cooper of North Carolina also issued quick statements of support. This swift support strengthens the Democratic Party’s unity around its new candidate.
Wide Support from the Progressive Wing: Throughout her career, Harris has focused on two issues that are top priorities for many voters: abortion rights and gun violence. As a strong advocate for abortion rights, Harris received significant initial support from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Her background as a woman of color with non-American roots also attracts attention from progressive supporters of immigration and minority rights, giving her a strong base against Trump among some swing state voters.
The Disappearance of the Narrative Questioning the Democratic Candidate’s Fitness: The argument that the Democratic candidate is mentally unfit to run for president lost ground after Biden’s withdrawal and Harris’s emergence as the new candidate. Harris, known for her intelligence, extensive legal background, and experience as a senator and attorney general, quickly proved her leadership abilities. This shift not only revitalized the Democratic campaign but also undermined the previously dominant narrative about the Democratic candidate’s physical and mental capabilities, weakening Trump’s campaign significantly.
Pressing Challenges
Despite the numerous opportunities that could help Harris win the upcoming election, several challenges and obstacles could make it difficult for her to defeat Trump:
Republican Campaign Linking Harris to Administration Failures: Since Biden’s announcement, Republicans have launched a broad attack on Harris, claiming her candidacy doesn’t negate her significant role in the administration’s failures. Republican statements, including from Trump campaign senior advisor Chris LaCivita and Trump Jr., emphasized Harris’s involvement in Biden’s failures, arguing she won’t be able to change the electoral map or inspire voters.
Internal Democratic Concerns About Her Selection Process: While many Democrats quickly supported Harris after Biden’s withdrawal, former President Barack Obama, who is highly popular within the party and across the U.S., has not yet endorsed her. He stressed that the door remains open for other potential candidates, highlighting internal concerns.
Doubts About Harris’s Ability to Garner Electoral Votes: Polls indicate Trump leads in several key battleground states with significant electoral votes, essential for securing the presidency. Harris’s ability to win these states remains uncertain unless she chooses a strong, charismatic running mate who can attract voters in these critical states.
Impact of Harris’s Racial and Gender Background: Harris’s identity as a Black woman might deter some conservative American voters who still oppose female leadership and harbor racial biases. Despite her extensive experience, Harris lacks the charisma to showcase this effectively. Relying on her appeal to Latino, African American, or Asian American voters alone may not be sufficient to secure victory against Trump, who has strong popular support.
Potential Legal Challenges from the Republican Party: Some Democratic figures express concerns about possible legal challenges from Republicans to disrupt their ranks and boost Trump’s chances. For example, New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who supported Biden staying in the race, warned that replacing him could lead to a court-decided election, referencing past contentious elections.
Use of Harris’s Record as Attorney General Against Her: Harris’s tenure as Attorney General in California faced criticism for her tough-on-crime policies. Critics highlight her stance on issues like school truancy, marijuana convictions, and police misconduct. This record could alienate progressive voters, spotlighting a disconnect between her past actions and her current progressive platform, benefiting Trump.
The Vice Presidential Dilemma
In conclusion, if Harris is the Democratic Party’s final candidate, her success will heavily depend on her choice of a strong Vice Presidential running mate. However, whether this running mate can help her defeat Trump in key battleground states remains uncertain, given Trump’s confident assertion that he can easily defeat Harris. The possibility of the Democratic Party choosing a different candidate still exists, making the outcome of the upcoming election hard to predict at this time.
