A Review of the “International Institute for Strategic Studies” Report on Military Spending
By 2024, it had become clear to everyone that the warm global peace that followed the Cold War and lasted until 2019 was no longer present. This shift occurred despite the COVID-19 pandemic, which had shown a global unity in addressing the crisis without political boundaries or conditions. The pandemic had a direct impact on reducing global military spending. However, this changed dramatically after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war in February 2022, which spurred a significant increase in military spending across all nations due to the fear of potential wars not only in Europe but also in Asia and the Middle East.
In 2023, the beginning of Operation “Al-Aqsa Flood” and the Red Sea crisis served as new catalysts for increased spending, driven by concerns over future conflicts. Increased spending on training and acquiring weapons does not necessarily mean an intention to engage in military operations; rather, it acts as a deterrent against adversaries’ ambitions and helps avoid battles that would drain financial resources and exhaust economies already struggling to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the annual report of the “International Institute for Strategic Studies,” some key points on global military spending can be observed.
Undoubtedly, the global rate of military spending increased by 5% in 2023 compared to the usual spending levels, which is 2% higher than in 2022. The main reason for this increase is the rise in spending in the Americas, Europe, Central and South Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe. However, military spending in the Middle East and North Africa did not follow this trend, experiencing a decline of 2% compared to 2022. The total global military spending increased by $128 billion in 2023 compared to 2022.
The largest increase in military spending was seen on the Russian side, as a direct effect of the Ukrainian war. Russian spending grew by nearly 40% compared to usual levels and by 15% compared to 2022, accounting for 18.6% of the global total, bringing it close to the United States, which accounted for 22.2%, and distancing it from China, which accounted for only 10.2%. Ukraine also increased its spending, reaching 8.9%.
The United States allocated an unprecedented budget of $905.5 billion for 2023, surpassing the combined spending of all other nations in an effort to maintain its military dominance. This move was motivated by the fear of the Chinese threat in the Pacific, as well as supporting Europeans in deterring the Russian bear and containing it within Ukrainian borders by supporting the Ukrainian side. However, the most important reason was to renew and upgrade outdated combat systems and units, while also reinforcing the ranks with newer systems and units to surpass the military capabilities of adversaries. This would allow the U.S. to achieve the highest levels of integration, reducing human losses while maintaining combat effectiveness. A significant portion of the budget was allocated to research and development to innovate new systems that could change the nature of warfare, such as artificial intelligence and unmanned systems.
China ranked second, with nearly $219.5 billion allocated to attempt to achieve parity with the United States and its Asian allies, relying primarily on naval forces to assert its influence in the Pacific region. The Chinese administration’s main goal was to manage the high costs of these systems and ramp up production rates within a short period. This included warships, destroyers, aircraft carriers, amphibious assault ships, nuclear submarines, and enhancing this arsenal with air force capabilities, particularly its fleet of strategic heavy bombers capable of launching missiles over thousands of kilometers, aiming to provide multiple offensive options for leaders in any combat scenario against Taiwan.
Military Spending in the Middle East and North Africa
The Middle East is poised to experience a period of economic stability in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 3.58%, which may be accompanied by an increase in military spending. However, no significant increase in arms deals is expected during the same year.
The combined defense budget of Middle Eastern and North African countries reached $183 billion, an increase of 9.49% compared to the years of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Gulf Arab states accounted for 72.22% of the total budget, compared to North African countries, which accounted for 16.30%, and the Levant region, which accounted for 11.49%. Saudi Arabia maintained its position as the largest military spender in the region, with nearly $69.1 billion, representing a slight increase of 5.7% over the usual spending level. Compared to 2022, Saudi military spending increased by 28% at that time. The main reason for this decline is likely the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement and the new strategy of reducing military operations in Yemen against Houthi militias.
Iran ranked second in military spending in the Middle East, with $43.8 billion, a steady rate. Experts suggest that the main reason is the country’s rising inflation rates, coupled with the lack of need for direct military engagements. Instead, Iran has pursued a policy of relying on armed militias to achieve geopolitical successes and effectively influence the Middle East. The majority of Iranian military spending went towards acquiring advanced combat systems, particularly through military cooperation agreements with Russia to replace outdated systems and combat units with newer ones. The most notable beneficiaries of this were the Iranian air force, which acquired “Yak-130” light attack and training aircraft, and signed a final agreement to obtain “Su-35” air superiority fighters.
By the end of 2023, the countries with the highest military spending increases in the Middle East, exceeding 20% compared to the previous year, were Iraq and Algeria, with spending levels equal to or exceeding 2% of their GDP. Countries that recorded increases between 10-20%, with spending above 2% of their GDP, included Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Mauritania, and Israel. Conversely, countries where defense spending decreased by 3%, with levels equal to or exceeding 2% of their GDP, included the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Morocco, Jordan, Tunisia, Bahrain, and Kuwait.
According to the annual report of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Egypt had the lowest military spending in the Middle East in 2023, with spending down by less than 20% compared to the previous year and below 2% of GDP. This reflects the highly pragmatic approach of the Egyptian political and military leadership in dealing with changes on the political, economic, and strategic levels.
Conclusion
Military spending in 2023 followed the expected trends from the previous year, especially with the escalation of military operations in Ukraine and the emergence of new technologies that have altered many military plans. The need to keep pace with future battles, particularly in unmanned systems, has become evident. Additionally, military operations in Gaza and the increased likelihood of a Pacific conflict are factors that will further drive military spending in the current and future years. Moreover, the rising costs of military technologies capable of changing the nature of modern warfare, such as artificial intelligence, are expected to dominate the military arena in the near future.
