NATO member states gathered in Washington from July 9 to 11, 2024, to celebrate the alliance’s 75th anniversary and discuss several critical challenges. These challenges pose unprecedented threats that NATO has not faced since the end of the Cold War. This summit coincides with the third year of the Ukrainian war, the upcoming US elections, and rising tensions between Washington and Beijing over global influence.
Key Insights
The summit took place amidst rapid developments on the Russian-Ukrainian front, increased tensions between China and Western countries in the Indo-Pacific, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, the rise of the far-right in several European countries, and the US elections nearing a decisive phase. Celebrating NATO’s 75th anniversary at this time sends several important messages and signals, including:
Concerns about NATO’s Future if “Trump” Returns to Power:
NATO countries are watching the upcoming US presidential election results with significant apprehension, preparing in advance for possible scenarios if Trump wins. European security heavily relies on NATO, and there’s fear in Brussels that Trump may revert to policies from his previous term. Thus, many countries attended the summit to strengthen US-European partnerships and held informal meetings with major candidates likely to assume top positions if Trump wins. For example, European leaders had meals with Richard Grenell, a top candidate for Secretary of State under Trump, and held extensive meetings with former national security advisers, including John Bolton.
Calls for Enhancing European Defense Independence:
There is growing advocacy within NATO to bolster European security and reduce dependence on the US. Despite several countries meeting their financial commitments to NATO and the EU securing arms deals with Washington, relying solely on the US is considered risky, especially with Trump’s chances of winning and his February 2024 statement about not protecting any European country failing to meet its financial obligations to NATO. Since the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Europe has doubled its ammunition production capacity, aiming to produce over two million shells annually by the end of 2025. However, European arms production faces challenges, as evidenced by Europe’s April 2023 pledge to send one million rounds to Ukraine, of which only half have been delivered.
NATO’s Moves to Expand Presence in the Indo-Pacific:
The summit underscored European efforts to cooperate with the US in implementing defense policies against China in the Indo-Pacific. This includes issuing strategies, sending naval units to ensure free movement in the South China Sea, and addressing current disputes between Beijing and Washington in the region. The summit aimed to align Western nations on handling Beijing’s international maneuvers.
Divergences Among Western Nations on Handling Beijing:
Despite attempts by Washington and some European countries to unify NATO’s approach towards China, there is no complete consensus. Some countries prefer a “de-risking” strategy over total decoupling from China. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó stated on July 11, 2024, that Hungary does not want NATO to become an “anti-China bloc” and will not support such moves.
Lack of Consensus on Ukraine Joining NATO:
While Brussels agrees on supplying Ukraine with more weapons and refusing to concede its current war, there is no final agreement on Ukraine joining NATO. French President Macron criticized Germany and the US for opposing Ukraine’s NATO membership. Before the summit, Macron noted strong US and German resistance to inviting Ukraine to join NATO. Although NATO leaders haven’t set a clear timeline for Ukraine’s accession, they reaffirmed Ukraine’s integral role in NATO’s future and committed to long-term support for Kyiv, without specifying an invitation date.
Summit Outcomes
The final statement from NATO reaffirmed unity against current threats to European security—primarily Russia—and welcomed new members Sweden and Finland. Key points from the summit include:
Highlighting the Russian Threat to NATO Security: The statement condemned Russia’s war on Ukraine as a comprehensive threat to European security, necessitating decisive actions on all fronts. It also addressed the Russia-China alliance as a significant threat to European stability.
Acknowledging Diverse Threats to NATO Nations: The statement highlighted ongoing conflicts in Africa and the Middle East, contributing to forced displacement, human trafficking, and irregular migration. It condemned destabilizing actions by Iran and accused Iran and North Korea of fueling the Russian war in Ukraine through direct military support to Moscow. Additionally, it criticized China’s coercive policies and deepening Russia-China strategic partnership.
Stressing the Need for Allies to Share Defense Costs: The Biden administration reaffirmed the principle set by former President Trump, urging NATO members to allocate at least 2% of their GDP to NATO’s budget. The statement welcomed that two-thirds of NATO allies are meeting this defense spending target, with some contributing even more. For instance, Canada’s defense spending increased by 18% in 2024, marking NATO’s largest increase in decades.
Rejecting Accusations of Slow Support for Ukraine: President Biden and his administration reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to supporting Kyiv against Moscow and rejected accusations of delaying aid to Ukraine. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby announced on July 10, 2024, that F-16 fighter jets provided by the US and NATO allies are expected to be operational in Ukraine by the end of summer. Additionally, the US, Germany, and Romania are collaborating to supply a Patriot battery, with the Netherlands working with other nations on another Patriot battery. Italy also pledged to provide the SAMP-T air defense system to Ukraine.
Reaffirming US Commitment to European Security: The summit underscored US efforts to support European security despite Washington’s focus on the Indo-Pacific. This includes a joint statement with Germany on July 10, 2024, announcing the start of periodic long-range missile deployments in Germany from 2026.
A European Quad Agreement to Develop Cruise Missiles: On July 11, 2024, France, Germany, Italy, and Poland launched an initiative to develop ground-launched cruise missiles with a range exceeding 500 kilometers to address gaps exposed by the Russian war in Ukraine. Defense ministers signed a letter of intent during the NATO summit.
Adopting a Multidimensional Defense Strategy: The summit emphasized a 360-degree defense strategy, encompassing new forces, capabilities, resources, and infrastructure, along with frequent large-scale drills. This includes integrating NATO’s ground forces and fully incorporating Finland and Sweden into NATO’s defense plans, speeding up military space integration, and establishing an integrated cyber defense center to enhance NATO’s cyber protection and response capabilities.
Launching a New Cybersecurity Unit: On July 10, 2024, NATO members agreed to establish a new cybersecurity unit to preemptively warn allies of cyberattacks and respond if they occur. The unit will share information about cyber threats to critical infrastructure to support military activities and protect them from enemy attacks, based at NATO headquarters in Belgium.
Ankara’s Efforts to Reduce NATO-Israel Cooperation: Turkish President Erdoğan stated on July 12, 2024, that NATO cannot continue its partnership with Israel and Turkey will not support cooperation with Israel within NATO until comprehensive peace is achieved in Palestine.
Confirming Current International Polarization: The summit’s statements against Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea highlight the current international polarization. North Korea condemned the summit’s declaration, accusing the US and NATO of being the greatest threat to global peace and security. China, on July 12, 2024, announced joint military drills with Russia in response to the summit, emphasizing the deepening China-Russia strategic partnership.
In conclusion, while the summit demonstrated NATO’s unity against Russian aggression in Ukraine and threats from China, North Korea, and Iran, it’s unlikely to positively impact President Biden’s chances in the upcoming US election. Biden’s perceived instability and reports of some Democratic lawmakers pushing against his reelection bid raise questions about NATO’s future should Trump return to the White House.
